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The Closing of the Frontier

tanyaverma.sh

61–70 of 142 posts

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#61
post #8

> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.

The point is it won’t be if these new models stay locked to the public.

You can’t use your own brain?

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#62
I had a similar thought, though not as extreme, the second they started nerfing and filtering models

Their intensions were good, they always are, but the minute you decide to nerf something powerful for someone, it means someone out there has access to the full blown, unnerfed version

Which means there are powerful people out there using AI in ways or for activities in which you will never be allowed to anyway

So yeah, this is just more of the same

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#63
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if an 1800 word post is just too long I think you are cooked. This is the nicest thing I can say on the subject.

It's not that 1800 words is too long, it's that I've seen probably 40-50 (at least) posts, analyses, and bloviations about Mythos since it came out. If the author doesn't very quickly get to why I should read their particular 1800 words over the other similar and competing tens of thousands of words on the subject, they are "cooked".

[deleted]

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This happened before with GPT-2 being touted as "too dangerous to release"[0] at the time by OpenAI. I don't think that means every model will be safe to release in the future, but nothing I've read about Mythos seems like it's going to be different this time. [0]: https://openai.com/index/better-language-models/

It's going to be a slightly better Opus. Every model released by any provider since 4o has been a modest improvement but over-hyped. Opus 4.6 included. I believe they are starting to split hairs and the primary lever left is adding compute.

Yeah the only thing that will be left is to scale up compute and pray it creates escape velocity. Which frankly has been Sam’s whole thesis in raising money.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#66

This feels really premature. The announcement was a week ago. The “this model is too powerful for the general public” sounds like marketing to me. Give it a few months and it will be just another model they are selling, but the NEWER model is just too powerful for the public.

Probably not. "This model is too powerful for the public" can also be interpreted another way, which they've also strongly hinted at - the cost/benefit ratio of the upgrade is negative for the vast majority of all users. Finding vulnerabilities is one of the few cases where it makes sense to use it. Their writing about the model so far does say this is an issue where, for instance, you can't really use Mythos for int…

If the model isn’t worth the cost for those who might want to make use of it, then it can’t be that impactful either.

One thing to compare to would be what’s been paid for bug bounties in the past.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#67
post #8

> A 16-year-old with no credentials and no capital could just do things. The world of bits offered the freedom to build without being drowned in arbitrary constraints, in a way that didn’t require assembling vast capital or prestige or connections, where your creativity and work could speak for itself, and you had agency. This is now truer than it ever was.

I didn't realize tokens were free!

Jokes aside, this is just a different flavor of the same promise we see with each new technology, and 9/10 times it just ends in worse professional environments.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#68

The problem is Anthropic doesn't have the compute to deploy this model to scale to everyone yet. Dario didn't believe that they needed as much compute, OpenAI is going to have much more compute unlocked this year and especially next year.

Let’s say the model is indeed groundbreaking but needs much more compute that they have, I wonder would merging Anthropic and OpenAI be on the table.

Re: The Closing of the Frontier

#69

Anthropic should provide a specific service where they attack a businesses infrastructure using this frontier model and then issue a report of all vulnerabilities found. I could imagine it would be quite lucrative. Much better than hiding it away where it can't help anyone.

Hypothetically... I'm joey joe bob who happens to be maintainer of a top 10 npm package. My wife got cancer so I need money FAST. Unrelated: can you mythos my lib?

1 month later: whoopsie my lib got hacked and the hackers stole a bunch of stuff. Sorry guys.

It just wouldn't be good PR. And this is the best case scenario.

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