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US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

nytimes.com

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Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#61

Post by megamike »

kumarvvr wrote: post #43
WarmWash wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was banking on a revolution, which hasn't yet materialized. A near term power vacuum and civil war might not be unlikely right now. This war started (on purpose) when Iran was the furthest thing from "united".

Presently we are seeing a rally around the flag in vogue in Iran. They are a civilization going back centuries. No matter their internal fights, they will come together against a common enemy, an enemy for 45 years that is. I am guessing the IRGC will also be careful enough to not rile up the populace until this war is over.

good book highly recommend Iran: A Modern History Charting the rise of modern Iran with Yale historian Abbas Amanat https://macmillan.yale.edu/middleeast/iran/publications/iran...

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#62

Post by WarmWash »

Teever wrote: post #55
ElProlactin wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's less about restocking and repositioning air defenses. The expensive weapons systems the US and its allies are running short on can't be replenished in weeks or even months. I think this was more about buying time to prepare for a ground war and probably to try to come up with some semblance of a strategy. It also served as a useful way for Trump to throw Vance under the bus. If the negotiations were seri…

As I understand it Iran requested that Vance conduct the negotiations.[0] The speculation is that they did so in order to tarnish his image in the American people by attaching his name and face to the conflict which is something he appears to have been desperate to avoid. If this is the case it seems like an extremely effective way to kneecap the eventual successor to a very unhealthy 79 year old man who may die in o…

Silver linings if Iran does in Trump, erases Vance's chance, and gets oil to $200 so people will finally start to feel pain for continuing to burn fossil fuels.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#63

Post by YZF »

kumarvvr wrote: post #43
WarmWash wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US was banking on a revolution, which hasn't yet materialized. A near term power vacuum and civil war might not be unlikely right now. This war started (on purpose) when Iran was the furthest thing from "united".

Presently we are seeing a rally around the flag in vogue in Iran. They are a civilization going back centuries. No matter their internal fights, they will come together against a common enemy, an enemy for 45 years that is. I am guessing the IRGC will also be careful enough to not rile up the populace until this war is over.

There is no rally around the flag. Those that hate and fear the regime are not going to join it.

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#64

Post by 3eb7988a1663 »

nostrademons wrote: post #50
ndiddy wrote: post #7

Ali Gholhaki, an Iranian journalist who often publishes first-hand news about impending developments with the IRGC, has reported that the US's demands were the removal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, no nuclear enrichment whatsoever, and US management of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange they were not offering any commitment regarding Lebanon. https://x.com/aghplt/status/2043092254416605522 Given that the US…

Iran's state media reported that the F-15 rescue mission was a cover to steal enriched uranium, something which fits the facts a lot more than them constructing an airstrip in enemy territory and blowing up at least two MC-130s just to rescue a pilot: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/new-updates/did-us... Also suspicious that Iran came to the negotiating table just a couple days after the F-15 mission after…

I have my doubts. There was a previous BBC piece[0] which went into some of the challenges with such a mission. The first being: it is not publicly known where Iran is storing its uranium. There are many putative options, most of which are going to be hardened and underground. Isfahan is near the middle of the country - safely getting troops there would already be challenging, let alone digging up any from the collapsed tunnels.

Minor blurb from the article:

  Satellite imagery shows that the entrances to Isfahan and Natanz were badly damaged by US airstrikes. US forces would likely need heavy machinery to dig through rubble in order to locate the enriched uranium, which is believed to be stored in tunnels buried deep underground - all while facing potential counterattacks from Iran.

  "You've first got to excavate the site and detect [the enriched uranium] while likely being under near constant threat," Campbell said.
[0] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvglv5v4yvpo

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#65

Post by megamike »

WarmWash wrote: post #53
kumarvvr wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presently we are seeing a rally around the flag in vogue in Iran. They are a civilization going back centuries. No matter their internal fights, they will come together against a common enemy, an enemy for 45 years that is. I am guessing the IRGC will also be careful enough to not rile up the populace until this war is over.

From what I have heard from the ground, regular people are paralyzed with fear/uncertainty and people with power feel like they are dead no matter what.

Iran Newspapers and News Media Guide http://www.abyznewslinks.com/iran.htm

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#66

Post by mandeepj »

Rotdhizon wrote: post #28
drnick1 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile and failed to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily The U.S. hasn't even come close to trying to seize the uranium and open the Straight militarily. When a country had most of its air force and navy destroyed, it is not in a position to demand anything. The Iranians have some missiles and drones left, but they are increasingly isolated and on their last legs…

It is heavily speculated that the rescue op on the downed pilot was a cover for a failed op regarding HEU extraction in that area. The info available on it online makes no sense for it to have just been a rescue op. What legitimate reports detail their military losses? Practically every single thing the US is pushing out is pure untrustworthy propaganda on the subject. Even if those specific elements are destroyed, i…

> Iran is China and Russia's pivot point into the West

Yeah, Iran is just front face, this is Russia and China’s war. Latter entity gets to test all their technology, ammunition without actually being in the war. They did the same thing by using Pakistan while they were fighting India.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/11/politics/us-intelligence-iran...

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#69

Post by recursivecaveat »

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #40
ndiddy wrote: post #7

Ali Gholhaki, an Iranian journalist who often publishes first-hand news about impending developments with the IRGC, has reported that the US's demands were the removal of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, no nuclear enrichment whatsoever, and US management of the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange they were not offering any commitment regarding Lebanon. https://x.com/aghplt/status/2043092254416605522 Given that the US…

>Given that the US failed to seize Iran's uranium stockpile I did not think this was possible. The three sites that were bombed in 2025 are all pretty centrally located within the country. Even if you can get troops there, the facilities are hardened and at least partially underground. Depending on how effective you believe the 2025 strikes to be, some of the facilities may be collapsed under tons of rock. There is n…

Yeah they buried almost 1000 tons of it under rubble last year. Good luck digging that up easily. Some analyist suggests that 1000+ troops per location would be required: https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-enriched-uranium-nucle...

Re: US – Iran negotiations end with no deal reached

#70

Post by megamike »

dimator wrote: post #56
WarmWash wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May I remind you the Iranian regime was locking down the internet and shooting protesters in the street in the weeks leading up to the attack.

Similar shit happening in North Korea. Should the US go there next? Regime change was NOT the goal, right? Wasn't that the party line?

and N Korea is sidelined by the USA because N Korea does not have anything we 'want' i.e. oil gold silver rare earth......
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