Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential. One year ago models could barely write a working function.
One year before 1969 we had never been to the moon. In the 70s credible scientists and physicists predicted that large martian colonies would exist before the year 2000. If a metric goes from 0 to 2 it doesn't mean it's on a long-lived exponential trajectory.
If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
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Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#62If it was stretched before it's definitely snapped now. The only place I see convincing opportunity is resources and commodities.
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#63The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…
You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential. One year ago models could barely write a working function.
Sigmoids look a lot like exponentials early on.
We can’t say for sure yet which trajectory we are on.
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#64depends on assumptions. thats the load bearing element. 99.99% of what was true then is still true. its mostly on the fractal churning edges where hyped change happens. things flip-flop too:
2021-2024: good time in US for EV startup
2025: terrible time in US for EV startup
2026 March/April: AWESOME time in world for EV startup
focus on fundamentals, not flakey ephemerals
2020: wise to have smart elite software engineers on your team
2021: ditto
2022: ditto
2023: ditto
2024: ditto (is this when ChatGPT launched? dont care. snore)
2025: ditto (what are YC/HN/VC hyping now? snore)
2026: ditto
2027+: ditto, likely
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#65The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…
You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential. One year ago models could barely write a working function.
> One year ago models could barely write a working function.
This is a false claim.
Claude Code was released over a year ago.
Models have improved a lot recently, but if you think 12 months ago they could barely write a working function you are mistaken.
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#66The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…
You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential. One year ago models could barely write a working function.
Seems extremely disingenuous to say that one year ago models could barely write a working function. In fact, there were plenty capable of writing a working function with the right context fed in, exactly as today.
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#67The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…
It's gotten to the point where, when I see yet another Thought Leadership article about software development, I search the page for the word "will". If I see unqualified predictions of the future (AI will change this and Agents will do that and developers will need to do thus), I think I can safely ignore the article. Who has the hubris to make such strong and unwavering statements about a future nobody can see?
How come all the talking heads telling us AI has made whatever we've learned or built obsolete never point the lens back at themselves? I personally thing knowledge from entrepreneurs who learned their lessons in previous decades is valuable, but if what they're spouting is true it doesn't make any sense to listen to them, i.e. these thought leaders are desperate to tell you of their irrelevance. Same thing for every CTO who tells me AI replaces developers. That's a stretch, but if we could do that, don't you think it would be trivial to replace your job?
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not, but this is not a great introduction. It's handwavy and makes the assumption that AI dev tools are much farther along than they are. I have seen this a lot lately; the farther up the management chain and farther away from putting hands on code, the more confident people seem to be in the power of AI tools. For big complex real world problems, and big complex real worlde codebases, the AIs are helpful but not…
I will take a lot more hand waving from the 70-something year-old Stanford professor who co-created far-up the chain management paradigms that run a good chunk of the economy. That context kinda changes things but what do I know.
Based on his own arguments a 70-something Stanford prof has no more knowledge, experience or credibility than someone who started 18 months ago.
These guys don't get to have it both ways.
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#69The post reads like written by someone who read too much about AI rather than tried to build a startup with the help of AI that they advocate so much. I'm still bounded by system design, UX, pricing and feature decisions, if not by the speed of code output, by the review time for sure. Yes, iterating is faster, but we're nowhere near agentic AI loops spitting out working products. Technically it's possible, but then…
You are assuming a linear future while we are in an exponential. One year ago models could barely write a working function.
GPT-4o is 23 months old.
One year ago, the models were only slightly less competent than today. There were models writing entire apps 3 years ago. Competent function writing is basically a given on all models since GPT3.
Much of the progress in the past year has been around the harnesses, MCPs, and skills. The models themselves are not getting better exponentially, if anything the progress is slowing down significantly since the 2023-2024 releases.
Re: If you started a company two years ago, many assumptions are no longer true
#70One assumption that's also changed: small teams no longer need dedicated QA. Tools like Autonoma (open source, getautonoma.com) use AI agents to generate and run E2E tests in real browsers, and tests self-maintain as your app evolves. One of the things making the solo-founder path more viable.