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Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

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Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#61

Post by surgical_fire »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #45
surgical_fire wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"any day now" Gotta love this argument. Top it off by saying anyone skeptical is a fool, because of course.

i’m sure my argument would have no merit if you ignored the thousands of advancements made in AI over the past few years

Really?

The last major advancement was probably GPT3, af least if we are talking about the LLM companies, the ones involved in the current data center boom.

After that was we experienced were marginal improvements of the same technology. Yes, the current models are better than what OpenAI put out at the time of ChatGPT 3, but none of it was revolutionary (and the gains have been less and less perceptible in newer versions).

We might be as far from AGI as we were in 2022. I think we are multiple revolutions in technology away from it.

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#62

Post by Ekaros »

jen729w wrote: post #32
starkeeper wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would this be a bad thing?

Because everyone's retirement depends on the stock market. If you're unlucky and your portfolio vests the day after a massive crash, that can have a very meaningful impact on the rest of your life.

Maybe that will make everyone to think what is going on with this retirement plan build on stock market growth and expectation there will be something to buy with that "wealth" in future...

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#63

Post by functional_dev »

danaris wrote: post #56
aoeusnth1 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Wobbly assumption that increasing the size of these models yields better performance. I'm assuming you disagree that larger models are better? Can you expand on what indicates that AI will hit a wall in scaling given the evidence of the last 9 years of scaling transformers (or other models)? Where on the plot does the line go from exponential to flat?

The evidence is the last 9 years of scaling. The curve flattened out years ago. The exponential was going from GPT-2 to GPT-4 (or thereabouts). After that, it was painfully obvious to anyone observing without a vested interest in believing otherwise that the progress had slowed. Now, it's not just that progress has slowed: it's that the exponential has reversed . In order to get marginal gains, they have to throw exp…

even if traning is hitting a wall I think they are shifting more to reasoning phase to get better results... and that is inference compute scaling

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#64

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

monodeldiablo wrote: post #26

It's not really even a question. It's an obvious boondoggle. The forecasted net new energy requirements for the AI buildout over the next couple of years are roughly equivalent to all of Western Europe's power demand today. That's absurd. It's a physical impossibility to bring that much power online that quickly. And the cost to get even close would make AI more expensive than just hiring knowledge workers to do the…

"We're going to look back on this era and wonder why anybody took many of the outrageous claims of tech CEOs seriously."

It's the money. Without it, "no one" would take these ideas seriously. We know this because before the money "no one" took such ideas seriously

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#65

Post by CamperBob2 »

surgical_fire wrote: post #61
atleastoptimal wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i’m sure my argument would have no merit if you ignored the thousands of advancements made in AI over the past few years

Really? The last major advancement was probably GPT3, af least if we are talking about the LLM companies, the ones involved in the current data center boom. After that was we experienced were marginal improvements of the same technology. Yes, the current models are better than what OpenAI put out at the time of ChatGPT 3, but none of it was revolutionary (and the gains have been less and less perceptible in newer ver…

I think agentic models will prove to be a seismic revolution by themselves, AGI or no AGI.

The models themselves may not need to be that much smarter than what we have now. You can make up for a lack of IQ to some extent if you wrap a control loop around a relentless machine.

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#66

Post by Der_Einzige »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #42

People really really don’t understand the implications of AGI. Whether or not you believe we will reach it in a fee years, we are certainly wayy closer today than we were even two years ago. The possibility of genuine AGI obliterates all the financial or energy related worries, they pale in comparison to the ultimate impact of such a technology. However, yes, if you believe AGI is not possible or won’t arrive in the…

I don't even need AGI/RSI to have unlimited demand for tokens.

Spending even a few days with Claude Code/Codex (using opus 4.6 or GPT 5.4) should convince anyone that the demand for tokens will be vast and infinite.

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#67

Post by tempodox »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #22
Melatonic wrote: post #12

If it does there is gonna be a lot of cheap second hand hardware out there for those who want to build something cool

Already got my 440 3-phase hookup scheduled. That NVL72 rack ain't gonna run on sunshine and pixie dust

Shouldn’t take too long, now that they’re switching to DC…

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#69

Post by tempodox »

sph wrote: post #60
CamperBob2 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the biggest case for a bearish attitude towards AGI is simply that we don't take advantage of the intelligence we already have. Look at our elected human leaders, for Pete's sake. If we had access to AGI today, we'd just find novel and interesting ways to ignore it, enslave it, gimp it, and/or bias it.

What, your preference would be to just unleash it upon the world? I wish the average software engineer had any foundation whatsoever in humanities and philosophy before being allowed to make such decisions, but alas, we are doomed.

Look at how the feudal tech lords employ the tech we actually have, do you seriously think they suddenly grow a conscience if the mythical AGI came to pass? All observable behavior will be based on insatiable greed for money and power, just as it is now.

Re: Will the AI data centre boom become a $9T bust?

#70

Post by surgical_fire »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #65
surgical_fire wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? The last major advancement was probably GPT3, af least if we are talking about the LLM companies, the ones involved in the current data center boom. After that was we experienced were marginal improvements of the same technology. Yes, the current models are better than what OpenAI put out at the time of ChatGPT 3, but none of it was revolutionary (and the gains have been less and less perceptible in newer ver…

I think agentic models will prove to be a seismic revolution by themselves, AGI or no AGI. The models themselves may not need to be that much smarter than what we have now. You can make up for a lack of IQ to some extent if you wrap a control loop around a relentless machine.

That's the thing, we got into hypotheticals. Maybe you are right, maybe not.

There were people that dismissed the Internet as a fad. There were people that dismissed Cryptocurrency as a fad. There were people that dismissed NFTs as a fad.

I think LLMs are very useful in some contexts, somewhat useless in others, and I think agentic models are highly overrated. Too unreliable to be left by themselves. We are a few revolutions away from that changing, I think.

But that, too his hypothetical. What I didn't do is call you a fool for your hypothesis.

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