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Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

geohot.github.io

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Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#61

> Over the past fifty years, the U.S. economy built a giant rent-extraction layer on top of human limitations: things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks. Trillions of dollars of enterprise value depended on those constraints persisting. – Citrini Research Agentic commerce will render Amazon and the rest of t…

I don’t buy it.

First, I think there is value in the “rent seeking” Amazon marketplace because how else would the models “go straight to the seller”, another centralized search engine? Why not just use the Amazon one then?

Second, one of LLMs big weaknesses is judgement on what to trust. I would not trust the judgment of an LLM to determine “the seller is legit”… unless we outsource trust verification to a third party marketplace (who will want a cut).

Finally, OpenAI has been aggressively pushing for this so they can take a cut of the transaction. So it’ll just be another middle man.

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#62
>Third party marketplaces sprung up for reservations, and idk it’s been a while since I went to fancy dinner, but I imagine the restaurants have just started charging. Or at least the first party reservation sites do.

Yes, this is what Tock is for. It's not clear to me that it's a bad thing. It replaces the old $20 in a handshake I used to do with the maitre d at the front of the restaurant. Democratizes opportunity and improves transparency

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#63

This is a highly sensational take that is basically fan fiction. From "the era of purposefully frustrating humans is over", to "the added bonus of the collapse of the US economy. Frankly, it’s well deserved." and "everyone in the world is rooting for the Chinese models"; nothing of that is grounded in reality. The Chinese models are open source because they are not state of the art. Once they catch-up or lead, they w…

> the "rent-seeking class" that has effectively existed for thousands of years

This "rent seeking class" is not a historical universal, regardless of how much college marxists insist that it is. Leaders can be good or bad, and they hold power in different ways. In America today we have bad leaders (across the entirety of the political spectrum) - and AI poses a lot of challenges in how they hold power. This is not to say Chinese leaders are any better - but the way they hold power is not challenged by AI. Business models will indeed adapt - but the condition is excellent, as they say.

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#64

I think self driving cars are important for a couple of reasons: 1. Demographics - Aging population needs transportation. God knows we certainly don't need really old people driving themselves. We got a taste of the future in West Portal in that regard not long ago. 2. Human Capital - The US has pretty much demonstrated that there is little desire to import low skilled labor. Where do these theoretical Taxi drivers c…

Public transportation solved this before cars were commonplace. Implement ubiquitous and free public transportation in every urban center (where 80% of the American population lives [0]) and you'll save billions from not having to manufacture (and store!) cars.

0: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/g...

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#65

Let's not gloss over the electrical supply. These chips won't work for free.

LLM inference uses on the order of 1 Wh per query. That's under 10 meters of driving on an EV or running air conditioning for under 5 seconds. https://hannahritchie.substack.com/p/ai-footprint-august-202...

Or a human riding a stationary bike for 36 seconds.

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#66

> Over the past fifty years, the U.S. economy built a giant rent-extraction layer on top of human limitations: things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks. Trillions of dollars of enterprise value depended on those constraints persisting. – Citrini Research Agentic commerce will render Amazon and the rest of t…

You disregard the fact that the sellers will have opposing LLMs constantly adding more signals that they're legitimate.

The sellers and the marketplaces can spend more time on their LLMs because it's their livelihood. It's the same asymmetry with different tooling.

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#67
Betteridge's Law of Headlines hard here.

> The era of purposefully frustrating humans is over. The Chinese open source model running on the box under my desk can pass the Turing Test. When you call, e-mail, text, or show me an ad, you’ll never know if it’s me or my model seeing it.

But at some point, you're going to want to do something, like, e.g., buy something. Then you're right back to the problem in the opening quote:

> things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks.

& we're already seeing AI used to do this. E.g., Amazon listings where product photos are AI generated. (… not that many product photos weren't "bad photoshop of product onto hot sexy model who is obviously not using our product" before … but now it's AI!) Whereas before someone would have had to spend a modicum of time badly using Photoshop, now AI can just churn out the same fraudulent result in a fraction of the time.

Now, if I have a problem with a product, instead of just calling a number, browsing a phone tree, getting put on hold, and finally having to struggle to get some human to understand the basic logistics of "I paid for X, I did not get X, I demand X or refund", I get to do all that but with the extra step of "forced engagement with an AI that is incapable of actually solving my problem". (This somehow still manages to apply even when the problem is seemingly trivial enough that I find myself thinking "… this actually should be something an AI can do" but inevitably, no, the AI is "sorry", it cannot do that.)

And besides, calls, emails, etc. are already handled without AI: I (and everyone I really care about) have either allowlisted all inbound comms, or abandoned the medium altogether. Moreover, any communications medium is useful because it is not infested with spam, and will eventually be destroyed by spam. At least until we grow laws for mediums like phone/email, maybe named things like "Do Not Call" or "CAN-SPAM" and those laws are enforced. But the GOP has no interest in enforcing any level of consumer protection, so here we are.

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#68

> The best anyone can hope for is a free market, with everything properly priced. But for decades, the American market has not been free. It’s used purposefully added friction to exploit a time asymmetry between the business and you. And due to things like call centers, this has been very profitable for the businesses. I just think this analysis is wrong from the start. The "proper" pricing structure, the one trackin…

you do pay for their time, when you (or someone else) buys the company's products. but customer support exists because it makes the company money, so really they should be paying you

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#69
It's going to be the same asymmetry with different tooling. Why does he think people will be the only ones with these tools? Companies will utilize them, as they already are, and will also have more time to fine-tune, manage, and improve them.

It's going to be your bots vs theirs. Theirs will have more resources. Net result? probably fewer jobs and wealthier companies yet again.

Re: Last gasps of the rent seeking class?

#70

> Over the past fifty years, the U.S. economy built a giant rent-extraction layer on top of human limitations: things take time, patience runs out, brand familiarity substitutes for diligence, and most people are willing to accept a bad price to avoid more clicks. Trillions of dollars of enterprise value depended on those constraints persisting. – Citrini Research Agentic commerce will render Amazon and the rest of t…

I don’t buy it. First, I think there is value in the “rent seeking” Amazon marketplace because how else would the models “go straight to the seller”, another centralized search engine? Why not just use the Amazon one then? Second, one of LLMs big weaknesses is judgement on what to trust. I would not trust the judgment of an LLM to determine “the seller is legit”… unless we outsource trust verification to a third part…

> So it’ll just be another middle man.

Exactly this, and not just another middleman, a middleman with an obscene burn rate that isn't close to profitability and is incentivized to ratchet up prices as soon as they can.

And then AI procurement has problems on the buyer side. Do I just blindly trust that the model is going to make the purchase as specified? Do I trust the model's search capabilities and objectivity of returning results? How do I know that OpenAI isn't running its own "marketplace", only showing me options to buy that they want me to see while filtering out less desirable options for them?

It's a fundamentally less transparent experience than Amazon.

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