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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#61

Post by dylan604 »

jmyeet wrote: post #37

There are lists of the worst decisions of the Supreme Court in history (eg [1]). Dred Scott [2] often tops such lists. I believe that Trump v. United States [3] will go on such lists in the near future. Why? Because it opened the floodgates on corruption on a scale we previously haven't seen. The president has absolute immunity. The president's communications with the Attorney-General can't even be examined, basicall…

> So the president has absolute immunity from any consequences.

That's not true. Congress still has the power to impeach with the a conviction in the Senate removing the sitting president. The problem is that both chambers of Congress are lead by sycophants of the president. All SCOTUS did was put an asterisk to the notion that "no man above the law". It's a big fat asterisk to be sure, but they gave themselves a little wiggle room.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#62

Post by b112 »

This is very weird.

Trump is the ultimate mercurial. At the drop of a hat, he'll change his mind on things. Predicting Trump is a ridiculous proposition, and I'm willing to be most would agree with that.

Even Trump doesn't know what Trump will do next!

Yet meanwhile, there are people using "insider knowledge" to make decisions? What insider knowledge!! There is none. It's all made up on a day to day basis.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#63

Post by TacticalCoder »

tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

[flagged]

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#64

Post by ragebol »

delecti wrote: post #44
huijzer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When do we cross the barrier from incompetent to nefarious?

They're orthogonal, so there's no barrier. They're all nefarious, and most are also incompetent.

Getting yourself installed as president while knowing you are incompetent (I mean, look at all those bankrupt businesses, he should know) is nefarious in itself. His entourage is nefarious for supporting the incompetency for their own gain.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#65

Post by XorNot »

huijzer wrote: post #56
delecti wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're orthogonal, so there's no barrier. They're all nefarious, and most are also incompetent.

And they are not nefarious and competent while pretending to be incompetent?

The Nazis were hilariously incompetent, but it didn't make them any less dangerous.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#66

Post by [deleted] »

jmyeet wrote: post #45
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

It's not really up to the US and Israel when this war of choice ends anymore. It's up to Iran. And Iran, justifiably, is going to demand their pound of flesh. That could require some combination of ending the (criminal) sanctions, de-militarizing the Gulf and reining in Israel. The problem is all of these things are politically untenable. This is the only reason why I think this war could continue long term because T…

[deleted]

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#67

Post by maxdo »

jmyeet wrote: post #45
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

It's not really up to the US and Israel when this war of choice ends anymore. It's up to Iran. And Iran, justifiably, is going to demand their pound of flesh. That could require some combination of ending the (criminal) sanctions, de-militarizing the Gulf and reining in Israel. The problem is all of these things are politically untenable. This is the only reason why I think this war could continue long term because T…

[flagged]

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#68

Post by XorNot »

871ajh-121 wrote: post #52

Trump always announces ceasefires, negotiations and "deals" when the other party doesn't even know about it. Or, in the middle of real negotiations, he attacks. This 5 day extension is to replenish US stocks and build up the marines in the region. while Israel continues to attack all the time. The only deal that may have emerged in secret is for Iran not to hit the Dimona nuclear power plant and for Israel/US not to…

He also does everything Friday after market close.

As an Australian the next dumbest thing I've ever heard of reliably happens mid Saturday as a result.

The "5 day extension" is coincidentally exactly that timeframe.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#69

Post by pjc50 »

jmyeet wrote: post #45
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

It's not really up to the US and Israel when this war of choice ends anymore. It's up to Iran. And Iran, justifiably, is going to demand their pound of flesh. That could require some combination of ending the (criminal) sanctions, de-militarizing the Gulf and reining in Israel. The problem is all of these things are politically untenable. This is the only reason why I think this war could continue long term because T…

Still nowhere near as bad as the Vietnam war. Arguably not even as big a mistake as the CIA coup against Mossadegh, which is the poisoned tree from which the present situation grows.

I wonder how the coup in Cuba will turn out. That has to happen before the midterms, and he's unlikely to wait for Iran to resolve.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#70

Post by polar8 »

jmyeet wrote: post #45
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

It's not really up to the US and Israel when this war of choice ends anymore. It's up to Iran. And Iran, justifiably, is going to demand their pound of flesh. That could require some combination of ending the (criminal) sanctions, de-militarizing the Gulf and reining in Israel. The problem is all of these things are politically untenable. This is the only reason why I think this war could continue long term because T…

I mean, Vietnam?
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