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American aviation is near collapse?

theatlantic.com

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Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#61

Post by fzeroracer »

mikkupikku wrote: post #5

I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel so I'm deeply unimpressed by this article instead hanging its argument on a hodgepodge list of incidents instead of digging into the data to get some proper numbers.

I'm curious: If your boss emailed you and all of your coworkers with mass buyout offers and demanded that they quit their job how many do you think would take up the offer? 10%? 20%? Do you think it would be enough to cause significant organizational issues?

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#62

Post by exe34 »

hagbard_c wrote: post #56
exe34 wrote: post #14

[flagged]

Well, yes, it is. That does not mean that all the problems have been solved by getting rid of those who gained their positions purely based on inalienable characteristics unrelated to job requirements but it does make for a better chance of solving the problems.

yes exactly, they hired people by the colour of their skin before, not whether or not they could do their jobs. this is why airplanes have now started falling out of the sky and crashing into stuff on the ground.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#63

Post by riffraff »

This is not news, there was an episode of Last Week Tonight on the Air Traffic Control crisis last summer[0].

From memory: on the human side airports are understaffed, there are no young controllers in the pipeline, attrition is high, and the less people are available the higher the burnout rate, which creates a vicious cycle. On the technical side, airports are unmaintained, systems are obsolete and crumbling.

John Oliver makes the case that most of the issue is that the FAA is financed through discretionary spending so e.g. it's subject to shut downs and can't do long term planning.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeABJbvcJ_k

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#65

Post by irishcoffee »

ryandrake wrote: post #39
toomuchtodo wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Air traffic controllers require a significant investment by the federal government, I take no issue with age limits for both investment (lower bound) and safety reasons (upper bound) (if the data says it is reasonable, I'll always defer to the data). I take exceptional issue with the fact that their pay is not considered essential. There should be no way for this critical infrastructure to be not considered essential…

This assumes that controllers over 56 years old are statistically "unsafe," presumably due to perceived cognitive speed and ability. So unsafe that the concern overrides experience, familiarity with systems, and other key benefits of tenure. I'd love to see that data.

An elderly woman ran into a bus stop at 70mph, killing 4 people. Their claim was “I couldn’t stop, I don’t know what happened”

They were given 200 hours community service. I think this happened today.

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#66

Post by happytoexplain »

KK7NIL wrote: post #15
happytoexplain wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have "very comprehensive data and statistics" indicating that US aviation is not nearing collapse? I don't understand what you mean.

He means that anyone making an argument that aviation safety has deteriorated should be using the stats to back it up, instead of anecdotal evidence.

This is a common kind of "data or nothing" fallacy. Data doesn't reliably capture evidence for the thesis "TSA agents and aviation workers are burning out and ICE is going to make it worse". The part that data is good for hasn't happened yet over a long enough timeline to reflect properly.

If the argument is "deadly accidents are up over the past decade", then yes, of course, we must point to data.

If the argument is, "the aviation industry might be on the verge of a steep decline in availability and/or safety due to recent political/financial problems", then what do you mean "show the data"? That doesn't make sense. It's a concern based on observation, which is fine if it's not presented as a fact.

And if it turns out that a specific accident is due to said forces - what, we don't address those forces, because "data"?

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#67

Post by toomuchtodo »

irishcoffee wrote: post #65
ryandrake wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumes that controllers over 56 years old are statistically "unsafe," presumably due to perceived cognitive speed and ability. So unsafe that the concern overrides experience, familiarity with systems, and other key benefits of tenure. I'd love to see that data.

An elderly woman ran into a bus stop at 70mph, killing 4 people. Their claim was “I couldn’t stop, I don’t know what happened” They were given 200 hours community service. I think this happened today.

78 years old at the time, now 80, sentenced to probation.

https://people.com/family-four-killed-bus-stop-outrage-drive...

https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/news/sfpd-arrests-driver-...

(SFPD Case #240-160-569)

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#69

Post by ForHackernews »

margalabargala wrote: post #38
toomuchtodo wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, a tired, overextended air traffic controller at LaGuardia just caused two pilots to die last night while landing. How many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached system failure"? I presume for some, it's going to have to be a few airframes worth of passengers unfortunately. There is a shortage of air traffic controllers. Those working are being pushed to failure. The system as a whole is degrading. Th…

> How many deaths would communicate "We have likely reached system failure"? "Failure" is really a matter of opinion rather than some objective tipping point. The air system is unlikely to ever actually "fail", and at worst will just become some arbitrary level of degraded that some people will loudly label "failed". There are plenty of examples around the world of countries with variously degraded air systems, that…

>Yemen, in the midst of a perennial civil war, still runs commercial flights

Not any more, they don't:

> The General Director of Sanaa International Airport, Khaled al-Shaief, said in a post on his X account that the strike had completely destroyed the last of the civilian planes that Yemenia Airways was operating from the airport.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-has...

Re: American aviation is near collapse?

#70

Post by fny »

marcosdumay wrote: post #46
mikkupikku wrote: post #5

I'm not saying the article's thesis is wrong, much of it rings true to me, but we have very comprehensive data and statistics concerning air travel so I'm deeply unimpressed by this article instead hanging its argument on a hodgepodge list of incidents instead of digging into the data to get some proper numbers.

I don't think you can make any statistical argument from accident data from a single year. Yes, there is universal data out there. But those events are so rare that you almost never can differentiate a normal year from an abnormal one.

You absolutely can see a difference. [0] The term of art is "Runway Incursions", and the stats definitely show our airports are working at the limits of safety.

[0]: https://www.buckycountry.com/2025/09/22/runway-close-calls-u...

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