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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

mitsloan.mit.edu

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#61

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

> just a matter of switching the admin, which we should be able to

I wish I shared your optimism. Being unable to change the admin has been the default state. The recent few centuries have been an exception. It's a big ship that we need to turn here. Might take longer than we think if we can manage it at all.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#62

Post by culi »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep...

> They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected by the coming climate crisis? It only got worse from there. Which was the greater threat: global warming or biological warfare? How long should one plan to be able to survive with no outside help? Should a shelter have its own air supply? What was the likelihood of groundwater contamination? Finally, the CEO of a brokerage house explained that he had nearly completed building his own underground bunker system, and asked: “How do I maintain authority over my security force after the event?” The event. That was their euphemism for the environmental collapse, social unrest, nuclear explosion, solar storm, unstoppable virus, or malicious computer hack that takes everything down.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#63

Post by psychoslave »

echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

> They're going to be a decade behind if they keep it up.

42 European here.

I've heard my whole adult life that Europe is ten years behind USA.

That doesn't feel that bad though. Being bleeding edge comes with the thrill of the avant garde prestige. But it does also mean you take the downsides of navigating the unexplored unknown in your face with no one to help with turn key solution when it happens.

If it means 10 years buffer on big social seismic troubles, that doesn't sound too bad if there is indeed an efficient shelve. That's not necessarily the case on every matter though, like global climate change is going to impact everyone, no matter the political isolation, and if a direct military aggression happens, it can be hurtful no matter how prepared is the society.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#64

Post by TimorousBestie »

paulsutter wrote: post #6

[flagged]

> yet neither "side" makes any proposal for an apolitical fair approach for redistricting...

Last week there was mention here of a proposal to fix the apportionment of House seats so that they are not capped at 435.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47332108

This proposal would make gerrymandering much harder.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#65

Post by Joel_Mckay »

CalRobert wrote: post #24
throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

The economy can get better while life gets worse for most people. After all, an economy where 95% of the work was done by enslaved people might produce amazing profits and a very high GDP....

GDP is a measure of economic activity, and goes up when people are forced to rebuild after natural disasters etc.

%Debt to GDP excluding military pay and allowances indicates how your grandchildren will live. Above >130% they will be poor, and remain poor indefinitely. You may disagree, but it is not like anyone wants this to happen.

The economic conservatives were compromised, and went insane =3

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#68

Post by lokar »

CalRobert wrote: post #24
throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

The economy can get better while life gets worse for most people. After all, an economy where 95% of the work was done by enslaved people might produce amazing profits and a very high GDP....

The use of GDP, or GDP/Population as the primary metric is a real problem.

We need to use a metric that is closer to "total economic benefit for the median person", that would include income, as well as government services.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#69

Post by cyanydeez »

smitty1e wrote: post #58
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Depending upon which party controls the White House, numbers seem to be released to support a predictable narrative, then adjusted later. But that's probably just my lying' eyes.

Now they just stop releasing. Thats a sizeable change. Even if you have a known bias, we can adjusy for that bias.

But if you just stop collecting data? No, these are not your father's red versus blue stats.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#70

Post by kettlecorn »

echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

I'm not a fan of this "us vs. them" framing.

Arguably the greatest threats to the US's future is ourselves. If we fundamentally corrupt who we are as a nation we've already lost before the competition with rivals has even begun.

Our significant tech advances could become tools of our own downfall if they violate our values or undermine the social mobility of the American dream.

Frankly I think the people pushing this competitive mindset (particularly against the EU) are trying to mislead otherwise intelligent builder-sorts to not pay attention to the looting & destruction of American values.

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