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Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

bbc.com

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Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#61

Post by YZF »

notepad0x90 wrote: post #58
YZF wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the sense that someone is manipulating the real world to make money in the prediction markets? Otherwise it's just like options.

No, in the sense that he people who set oil prices and government policy alike can trade in those prediction markets. I'm all for the markets, very democratic and libertarian (not that I'm one), but policy makers, executives and other people from whom a conflict of interest by a prediction market translates into disaster for real people should be restricted from participating in these markets.

OK. So I think your answer is actually a yes?

In this case however you can pretty much do the same thing with other financial instruments like future contract on oil. Either way, I agree decision makers shouldn't be allowed to trade (and I think are forbidden in most countries).

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#62

Post by [deleted] »

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #25
msy wrote: post #4

This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t... It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infras…

This is written a bit like the US dollar depends solely on the price of oil, which isn't true. It also seems like if we're to game theory this, we'd need to plot out the full escalation capacity of the USA, which the author is failing to do here. I don't like the idea of doing that because the thought is sickening, but it's necessary to consider the entire decision tree to make a remotely rational model. In retrospec…

[deleted]

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#63

Post by msy »

YZF wrote: post #40
msy wrote: post #4

This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t... It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infras…

Wars are hard to predict and the economy is hard to predict. There's easy money in the making for those who are sure the oil price is going to continue way up. The blog you reference has inaccuracies. Drones are generally not shot by THAAD is a glaring one. It's very much not 2-3 million dollars to $50k. Helicopter gunships shoot down drones with bullets these days is very common and there are other economic means of…

Absolutely agree there's both some dubious suppositions and hand-waving there. The real question is I suspect how much pressure the GCC can withstand and how much pressure they can apply to Trump directly given business ties etc. If they lose a serious chunk of desalination capacity for example the situation becomes dire extremely quickly. For Dubai simply not having a decent supply of fresh food would alone be an economic catastrophe, every day this drags on is doing reputational damage that'll take years to fully recover from long after the hotel facades are patched up.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#64

Post by za3faran »

itake wrote: post #13
msy wrote: post #4

This theory of how the US loses in Iran is looking increasingly likely: https://kasperbenjamin.substack.com/p/why-the-us-will-lose-t... It's going to be incredibly difficult to stop Iran being able to kneecap both the global economy and in particular the gulf states, who are going to be motivated to put maximum pressure on the US to sue for peace. Incredible hubris and a lobotomised diplomatic and intelligence infras…

1/ When authors use AI for editing, it reduces their credibility. 2/ As much as I don't like the current administration (and Israel leadership), there is absolutely no way the assumptions this article makes about them are false. There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: - the straight would be closed - a new leader may represent similar idiologies of the past leader. Everything that has happened so far (in…

I think you give too much credit to the US and zionists. They probably convinced Trump that it would be another Venezuela, and because of their hubris they decided to go for it anyway. Remember how at the beginning it was supposed to only last for 2-3 days? Then 1 week, then 2 weeks, then 4 weeks, then until September. They clearly didn't see this far.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#67

Post by itake »

robertjpayne wrote: post #22
itake wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1/ When authors use AI for editing, it reduces their credibility. 2/ As much as I don't like the current administration (and Israel leadership), there is absolutely no way the assumptions this article makes about them are false. There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: - the straight would be closed - a new leader may represent similar idiologies of the past leader. Everything that has happened so far (in…

Maybe the US military commanders, generals and Pentagon knew this but the civilian leadership at the top chose to completely ignore it and can't really articulate a plan or what the plan ever was.

This conflict was a long time coming: Trump claimed Biden or Obama will start a war in Iran and that is why they are weak presidents. Trump sees himself as a peacemaker (flying in to negotiate deals with TH and KH, negotiating Ukraine war, etc).

I think there is more going on to cause Trump drastically change his self-image.

I don't think this is a Trump administration driven decision.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#68

Post by itake »

beloch wrote: post #38
itake wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1/ When authors use AI for editing, it reduces their credibility. 2/ As much as I don't like the current administration (and Israel leadership), there is absolutely no way the assumptions this article makes about them are false. There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: - the straight would be closed - a new leader may represent similar idiologies of the past leader. Everything that has happened so far (in…

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is reported to have recommended against further air strikes on Iran[1]. ---------- "Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General Dan Caine, has warned that strikes against Iran could be risky, potentially drawing the US into a prolonged conflict, US media report. Caine has reportedly cautioned that a military action could have repercussions across the region, pote…

I agree that many people inside and outside the US gov didn't want this war for various reasons, but of the people that wanted this war, they must have calculated these very obvious risks.

The article touches on this topic, but my guess is Iran isn't part of the USD/petrol trading. If the US can convince the new leadership in Iran to start trading in USD, then that would be very good for the USA (and bad for CN, RU, and IN).

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#69

Post by itake »

surgical_fire wrote: post #48
itake wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1/ When authors use AI for editing, it reduces their credibility. 2/ As much as I don't like the current administration (and Israel leadership), there is absolutely no way the assumptions this article makes about them are false. There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: - the straight would be closed - a new leader may represent similar idiologies of the past leader. Everything that has happened so far (in…

> There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: I don't really believe the buffoons in US leadership calculate much. It's all vibes. I firmly believe it will become a case study in how many ways a comically incompetent government can damage a country. As for Israel... I think their calculation is simple. They don't really care about how much damage they cause to the world economy, as long as they get to kill M…

If its all vibes, then how does trump hungry for a world peace prize vibe with the war? Or the many clips of Trump trashing Obama and Biden for potentially starting a war in Iran?

No, this was a calculated decision.

Re: Oil hits $100 a barrel despite deal to release record amount of reserves

#70

Post by itake »

za3faran wrote: post #64
itake wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1/ When authors use AI for editing, it reduces their credibility. 2/ As much as I don't like the current administration (and Israel leadership), there is absolutely no way the assumptions this article makes about them are false. There is no way the US/Israel didn't calculate that: - the straight would be closed - a new leader may represent similar idiologies of the past leader. Everything that has happened so far (in…

I think you give too much credit to the US and zionists. They probably convinced Trump that it would be another Venezuela, and because of their hubris they decided to go for it anyway. Remember how at the beginning it was supposed to only last for 2-3 days? Then 1 week, then 2 weeks, then 4 weeks, then until September. They clearly didn't see this far.

I'm very surprised anyone would think Iran would be a Venezuela.

Venezuela's leadership was barely legitimate (with voter fraud / dictactorship 3 years ago) whereas the supreme leader in Iran has had power for 36 years.

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