Live data from Hacker News

The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

mlumiste.com

61–70 of 411 posts

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#61
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Give it a couple weeks and everybody will forget about this. They'll be earning more money than previously. Job well done.

Just like everyone forgot about this https://www.wired.com/story/openai-staff-walk-protest-sam-al...

Traitors to humanity

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#62

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

[flagged]

what the hell are you talking about ?

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#63
> “Automated AI research intern by Sep 2026, full AI researcher by Mar 2028”

Funny how timely this is, with Karpathy's Autoresearch hitting the top of HN yesterday (and this being an indication that frontier labs probably have much larger scale versions of this)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47291123

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#64

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

[flagged]

putting aside the obvious gender-based prejudice in this comment-

since when did the view that "humans should be in the loop before murderbots target and kill someone" become a "naive moral absolutist view of the world"? we're resigned to building the terminator now?

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#66
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I 100% understand and agree the AI community argument around lethal autonomy. But I am trying to understand this from the perspective of defence & govt. Why is it so business as usual for them? Do they consider this at par with missiles with infra-red/heat sensors for tracking/locking? Where does the definition of lethal autonomy begin and end? Just putting this out there as a point to ponder on. By itself, this may…

I don't think it's about lethal autonomy specifically as much as it's just about government autonomy period. They don’t think private companies should have any veto power over how the government uses some technology they're provided. On its face that’s not a crazy stance: Governments are meant to represent the public, while private companies obviously aren't. I think it’s somewhat understandable why the government mi…

Agree, and I think the labeling of them (Anthropic) a supply chain risk was handled poorly and will likely be reverted over time. That being said, I would be nervous if I was in the Pentagon and depended on Anthropic tooling for something, even if that something was unrelated to kinetic operations. How do they audit that Anthropic can't alter model outputs for contexts they (the ethics board or whatever it's called, can't remember) don't like? If you sell a weapon to the department that is in charge of killing people and breaking things, you don't get a say in who gets killed or how. It's never worked like that.

Maybe the argument is that they should, but I don't agree with that. If Anthropic or any of these other vendors have reservations about the logical conclusion of how these tools will be/are used then they should not sell to the government. Simple as. However ... if the claims Anthropic et al make about how these systems will develop and the capabilities they will have are at all true, then the government will come knocking anyway.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#67
post #60

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

> This was about principle, not people. Why do I not believe this at all? Were things truly sunshine and roses at OpenAI up until this Pentagon debacle? Perhaps I am mistaken, but it seemed like the writing was on the wall years ago. > I have deep respect for Sam and the team I have even more questions now.

How can you respect someone who betrays a principle you care about for money?

Not to mention that the principles are not being betrayed now for the first time.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#68
post #60

""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…

> This was about principle, not people. Why do I not believe this at all? Were things truly sunshine and roses at OpenAI up until this Pentagon debacle? Perhaps I am mistaken, but it seemed like the writing was on the wall years ago. > I have deep respect for Sam and the team I have even more questions now.

Sounds like a statement to ensure they aren’t blacklisted or seen as anti executive.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I 100% understand and agree the AI community argument around lethal autonomy. But I am trying to understand this from the perspective of defence & govt. Why is it so business as usual for them? Do they consider this at par with missiles with infra-red/heat sensors for tracking/locking? Where does the definition of lethal autonomy begin and end? Just putting this out there as a point to ponder on. By itself, this may…

My most straightforward read is that the military simply doesn't want their contractors to have a say in the war doctrine. Raytheon doesn't get to say "you can only bomb the countries we like, and no hitting hospitals or schools". It doesn't necessarily mean the Pentagon wants to bomb hospitals, but they also don't want to lose autonomy. A less charitable interpretation is that the current doctrine is "China / Russia…

>A less charitable interpretation is that the current doctrine is "China / Russia will build autonomous killbots, so we can't allow a killbot gap".

What's the reason this is less charitable, exactly? Do we think this isn't true, or that we think it's immoral to build the Terminator even if China/Russia already have them?

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like everyone forgot about this https://www.wired.com/story/openai-staff-walk-protest-sam-al...

Employees are the ones with the real power to make this hurt. The customers switching over are easily offset by the DoD contract. But losing talent over this, and having a harder time to attract future talent? That could hurt them Sam probably expects to solve this by just offering more money. It worked in the past

Yeah, they will have to raise salary by 10% to attract people. This will no doubt hurt their bottom line. Poor starving SV text workers will have no choice but to accept working for them, lest they starve.

Maybe my sarcasm is not justified, but I don't think most people care that that work for a company that does unethical things. In fact I think all large companies are more or less immoral (or rather amoral) - that's just how the system is built.

Post reply on HN