Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

War prediction markets are a national-security threat

theatlantic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 162 posts

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#61

Post by dastuer »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #55

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success . It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable an…

The site you cite for [3] reads:

"Khamenei, the leader of the great nation of Iran, the freedom seekers of the world and the Islamic nations, has joined the highest paradise and reached his long-cherished wish of martyrdom in the holy month of Ramadan," said an announcement aired on Iranian state television.

Sounds to me like it was made up after the fact.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#62

Post by tlb »

Footnote7341 wrote: post #5

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

Oil prices are affected by many other things too. It's valuable to isolate individual factors.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#64

Post by spiderice »

llm_nerd wrote: post #57

Apologies for going in the weeds on a general concept that is 100% valid, but it expends a couple of paragraphs on this so I must- "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user." We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr. He was in his own home at the same time that the entire world could see the enormous buildup of resources the US was placing in the area. Trump did e…

> We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr

I don't think we have to assume that. He could have thought the military build up was a bluff. He could have trusted in Iran's defenses to allow him time to find safety. He could have thought his assassination attempt on Trump would pan out. There are a million other could-have's that we could invent, and I don't think "him choosing to be a martyr" is any more (or less) valid than the rest of them.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#65

Post by spiderice »

jimkleiber wrote: post #8
Uhhrrr wrote: post #3

Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.

Well markets give a huge financial incentive for it. Before you had to get paid a bribe for an intelligence agent. Now you can just "legitimately" bet on a market. It's a LOT easier and more spread out, I imagine.

The existence of banks gives a huge financial incentive to rob them. That doesn't mean we should get rid of banks. It means we should create a huge disincentive to rob them (which we do). Same thing needs to happen to people using national intelligence secrets in prediction markets.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#66

Post by thephyber »

pstuart wrote: post #23
Footnote7341 wrote: post #5

Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.

Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.

The White House has admitted that Israel had actionable intelligence that several of the Iranian political leadership were having a physical meeting together and they decided to attack to decapitate the government. The US decided to attack Iranian capabilities preemptively to reduce the inevitable response to US military, embassies, and allies in the region.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#67

Post by mullingitover »

thephyber wrote: post #66
pstuart wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.

The White House has admitted that Israel had actionable intelligence that several of the Iranian political leadership were having a physical meeting together and they decided to attack to decapitate the government. The US decided to attack Iranian capabilities preemptively to reduce the inevitable response to US military, embassies, and allies in the region.

It’s bad enough the politicians lied when they campaigned on no more wars in the Middle East, they don’t need to insult our intelligence with these moronic cover stories.

If they didn’t want Israel dragging the US into wars they could’ve just placed a call to Iran to warn them.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#68

Post by AnimalMuppet »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #55

Folks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success . It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable an…

That gives me pause, given what he's been saying about Cuba recently...

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#69

Post by llm_nerd »

spiderice wrote: post #64
llm_nerd wrote: post #57

Apologies for going in the weeds on a general concept that is 100% valid, but it expends a couple of paragraphs on this so I must- "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user." We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr. He was in his own home at the same time that the entire world could see the enormous buildup of resources the US was placing in the area. Trump did e…

> We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr I don't think we have to assume that. He could have thought the military build up was a bluff. He could have trusted in Iran's defenses to allow him time to find safety. He could have thought his assassination attempt on Trump would pan out. There are a million other could-have's that we could invent, and I don't think "him choosing to be a martyr" is any mor…

>He could have thought the military build up was a bluff.

Everyone knew the US was attacking. Iran clearly knew as well.

>He could have trusted in Iran's defenses to allow him time to find safety

Everyone knows what Tomahawks are by now. Everyone knows that the first sign of an attack will be things blowing up around you. Further both Israel and the US have repeatedly performed airstrikes throughout Iran with impunity, including just a few months earlier with zero resistance. No, there is no rational situation where Iran thought their defenses would give cover for an old man in his own palace.

It's infinitely more valid of a supposition to assume he martyred himself.

Weird how this offends some people. It's especially hilarious when we have the classic "Mossad super-masterful strokes figured out that old man was...in his own home"

Like if the US, through masterful intelligence and a giant bunker buster, caught him in some underground complex, then sure. That isn't what happens.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#70

Post by mkoubaa »

gruez wrote: post #27
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #19

> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me w…

>> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, Or you know, be in a bunker dug into the mountains somewhere, rather than being in your official residence? He was a 86 year old man faced with the prospect of living the rest of his life in a bunker, so…

He unequivocally stated on many occasions that he wanted to die a martyr
Post reply on HN