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Khamenei Dead

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Re: Khamenei Dead

#61

Post by cogman10 »

pinewurst wrote: post #55
cogman10 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that the Iranian government is very resilient. The has been a succession plan since the 70s with a broad board of individuals who can choose the next leader. Blowback is going to be the biggest issue here. Ali Khamenei wasn't just the leader of Iran, he was well respected for Shia muslims. While not perfectly analogous, it's close to killing the pope. Maybe this leads to open revolt which might fu…

That's actually not true: Khamenei was a political ayatollah, hardly respected for religious judgment by average Shia.

It's my understanding that most ayatollahs get that title through political influence. And for Iran specifically, the supreme leader wouldn't have gotten his position without having that religious influence. It's a theocracy.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#64

Post by [deleted] »

cogman10 wrote: post #61
pinewurst wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's actually not true: Khamenei was a political ayatollah, hardly respected for religious judgment by average Shia.

It's my understanding that most ayatollahs get that title through political influence. And for Iran specifically, the supreme leader wouldn't have gotten his position without having that religious influence. It's a theocracy.

[deleted]

Re: Khamenei Dead

#65

Post by mullingitover »

mrtksn wrote: post #9

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

Iran is already a parliamentary democracy, the aspect that’s criticized is the fact that candidates must be approved by their religious council. The Ayatollah didn’t/doesn’t exercise direct executive control over the country, so his removal wouldn’t create an immediate leadership vacuum.

For as much as the far right in the US likes to criticize Iran, ultimately their only real complaint about their ‘theocracy with democratic characteristics’ is that it isn’t Christian.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#66

Post by gmuslera »

lukan wrote: post #41
arisudesu wrote: post #30

[flagged]

"interesting new phenomenon" I would argue, directly targeting the leaders of another state is a "interesting new phenomenon".

Sleepwalking into a dystopia that would had made Aldous Huxley and George Orwell to blush falls into the interesting arena.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#67

Post by UncleMeat »

tokyobreakfast wrote: post #21
helaoban wrote: post #8

So now heads of state are fair game for unilateral elimination without a declaration of war This should be fun.

Generally when you murder 30k of your own people the civilized world doesn't let you get away with it.

More than 30k dead palestinians.

Re: Khamenei Dead

#69

Post by [deleted] »

vixen99 wrote: post #42
rvz wrote: post #12

Iranian media is very quiet today (due to the blackout), but until they confirms this, then this is complete speculation and unconfirmed. We just don't know. I'd take the Israeli media with a grain of salt and they can still fake this, just like the Iranian media can do as well given that AI exists, it's very easy to fake. One side is not telling the truth. Only time will tell.

If the 86-year old leader is still alive one would imagine that he would want to offer reassurance and & encouragement to his supporters by making some kind of appearance.

[deleted]

Re: Khamenei Dead

#70

Post by kibibu »

cogman10 wrote: post #49
bell-cot wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree about the first part. Israeli intel agencies have very deep roots in Iran, and could very quickly be humiliated if Khamenei popped up with a jeering rebuttal to their claim.

Israel also doesn't tend to report on major kills that didn't happen. It's one thing that they are fairly reliable on. If they say someone is dead, they likely are.

Oddly enough, they also don't tend to report on minor deaths that do happen
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