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AI is going to kill app subscriptions

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Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#61

Post by ej88 »

onion2k wrote: post #24
camdenreslink wrote: post #7

Counterpoint, why do current state of the art generative AI companies, with the ability to use models that the public can't even access, and the ability to burn tokens at cost, still pay for very expensive Saas software?

That's really simple - actually writing the software has never really been the hard part in most SaaS apps. So long as you're moderately disciplined and organised it's easy to build what most SaaS apps are e.g. a CRUD-app-with-a-clever-bit. The clever bit is the initial challenge that sets it apart from the rest, but encoding that in software has never really been that difficult. Having the ideas necessary to know wh…

I would posit another large factor is "owning" the software comes with the long tail of edge cases, bugs, support, on-call, regulations, etc... that an established SaaS has learned and iterated on for many years with many customers.

For the vast majority of companies they would (and should) rather let the SaaS figure that out and focus on their actual company

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#62

Post by ethbr1 »

MontyCarloHall wrote: post #36
camdenreslink wrote: post #7

Counterpoint, why do current state of the art generative AI companies, with the ability to use models that the public can't even access, and the ability to burn tokens at cost, still pay for very expensive Saas software?

Addendum to counterpoint: why haven't those SotA gen-AI companies become the most productive software companies on earth, and release better and cheaper competitors to all currently popular software? People always gripe about the poor quality of software staples like Microsoft Office or GitHub or Slack. Why hasn't OpenAI or Anthropic released a superior office suite or code hosting platform or enterprise chat? It wou…

Anthropic appears to have realized before OpenAI that code gen was an important enough market to specialize in.

For now though, building smarter models / general integration tooling is a better us of model companies' capital.

Once/if performance gains plateau, expect you'll see them pivot right quick to in-house software factories for easily cloneable, large TAM product spaces, then spin off those products if they're successful.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#63

Post by andsoitis »

dzonga wrote: post #33

I guess for the author's limited worldview - "apps" are only available through the app stores. could be an unfortunate thing of the author growing up in an era of gated ecosystems. however much of the software out there - is via web - and some desktop - some internal use - some external - some shit without ui - some billed yearly, some billed by subscriptions but I guess tell us how AI is gonna kill subscriptions

The salient point is it is becoming easier and easier for end-users to create apps for their use cases, rather than having to rely on a developer, or packaged apps.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#64

Post by colesantiago »

BloondAndDoom wrote: post #19
rekabis wrote: post #5

People will still pay for convenience or functionality. If there is a feature that cannot be done on-device, and that on-Internet feature can be effectively moated and duplication-resisted, then if it’s a feature that people think they need they will absolutely open their wallets to pay for. The trick is finding that feature or attribute that cannot be done on-device, and then moating it against AI duplication. Do th…

Yes but they will pay less because there will 50 competitors who provide similar enough software for fraction of prices. Having a moar that’s not replicable for cheaper is rare

The race to the bottom.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#65

Post by hxugufjfjf »

MontyCarloHall wrote: post #36
camdenreslink wrote: post #7

Counterpoint, why do current state of the art generative AI companies, with the ability to use models that the public can't even access, and the ability to burn tokens at cost, still pay for very expensive Saas software?

Addendum to counterpoint: why haven't those SotA gen-AI companies become the most productive software companies on earth, and release better and cheaper competitors to all currently popular software? People always gripe about the poor quality of software staples like Microsoft Office or GitHub or Slack. Why hasn't OpenAI or Anthropic released a superior office suite or code hosting platform or enterprise chat? It wou…

Because it’s not their business to sell a chat app? "Our company is the frontier lab for AI models, oh and btw we also offer SlackClone, sign up for enterprise please". Their job is selling shovels, really good, increasingly more expensive shovels that keep getting better, let others waste their time looking for gold.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#66

Post by sunir »

After the dot.com, there was the O-pocalypse that terrified me as a recent grad.

- Open source - Outsourcing - Offshoring

It was driving the labour cost of an engineer to zero I felt as a young man.

Then time passed, and I learnt that engineers aren't paid to code. Engineers are paid to solve problems for a business.

If you recall, the dot.com bust and 9/11 crashed finances for a few years. When the money printing gun went whir because "Deficits don't matter" Washington, then engineers were in demand again.

Right now we are in a weird situation where money is being printed and it is also tight. Most of it is going to the hardware and infrastructure layer, like the fiber optic bubble in the dot.com. Software will have its time in the sun again.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#67

Post by informal007 »

dzonga wrote: post #33

I guess for the author's limited worldview - "apps" are only available through the app stores. could be an unfortunate thing of the author growing up in an era of gated ecosystems. however much of the software out there - is via web - and some desktop - some internal use - some external - some shit without ui - some billed yearly, some billed by subscriptions but I guess tell us how AI is gonna kill subscriptions

I think it depends on what percentage of apps need a website. Most users use apps on their devices, for me, I don't want to open another website when I need an App if it's avoidable.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#68

Post by exe34 »

onion2k wrote: post #24
camdenreslink wrote: post #7

Counterpoint, why do current state of the art generative AI companies, with the ability to use models that the public can't even access, and the ability to burn tokens at cost, still pay for very expensive Saas software?

That's really simple - actually writing the software has never really been the hard part in most SaaS apps. So long as you're moderately disciplined and organised it's easy to build what most SaaS apps are e.g. a CRUD-app-with-a-clever-bit. The clever bit is the initial challenge that sets it apart from the rest, but encoding that in software has never really been that difficult. Having the ideas necessary to know wh…

AI companies already know what they need. they're paying for it. it would make a great case study for them to make a list of all external software they're using, list the features they use (or make the ai watch them for a week), and then prompt the AI to rewrite those in-house.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#69

Post by kranner »

kilroy123 wrote: post #35
CPLX wrote: post #9

I’ve been talking about this a lot with founder/coder types in my circle of friends with a wide variety of opinions. My theory as an old guy is that the standards will just go up. There’s a current business model where you can make a basic but useful tool that solves a specific business problem and make money. That’s going to end. We’ve seen this before. A good example would be when the mobile app stores launched and…

That's what I think will happen. Not just standards but taste and design as well. I think there's almost even more demand for good designers now than ever before. Why? VERY good design signals this is tasteful and quality. Not an AI-slop-vibe-mess.

> Why? VERY good design signals this is tasteful and quality. Not an AI-slop-vibe-mess.

I'm not too sure about this. Very good design, at least in terms of marketing materials such as screenshots, may be end up signalling the use of AI in the coding as well. I know if an app has obviously-AI-generated photos in the screenshots I would be disinclined even to try it.

Re: AI is going to kill app subscriptions

#70

Post by bdcravens »

LordHumungous wrote: post #31

> For apps that run locally—no servers, no cloud costs—subscriptions make no sense anymore. Did it ever make sense? I always scoffed at the idea of paying a subscription to use a text editor or paint tool.

(Assuming you're okay with paying for software, just not an ongoing subscription)

Reasons why subscriptions may be a "better" than upfront licenses, even when the subscription cost more in the long run:

1. Cashflow management

2. Bypass budget approvals due to smaller amounts

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