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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

bloomberg.com

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#61

Post by daymanstep »

whynotminot wrote: post #17
GiorgioG wrote: post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

This is often a commonly blamed reason, but I think the data at this point pretty strongly suggests that the more affluent a country is the less kids they have. You look at some of the most third world places in the world without strong economic security, yet somehow they manage to have babies at a higher rate than Western countries do.

Yes, the "cost of having kids" argument is 100% bunk. Africans in abject poverty are having 6-7 kids, while individuals living in the richest countries are having 1 or none even though they clearly can afford many more.

Even within Western countries income is negatively correlated with fertility - those most able to afford kids are having the least number of kids.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#63

Post by vjvjvjvjghv »

tonmoy wrote: post #30
queuebert wrote: post #16

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

The main issue with population decline is the inability to depend on the growing younger population to fund the retirement of elderly people

That's the way the system is set up but basically it's not sustainable. You can have more young people now to fix the problem of funding older people. But what happens when these young people get old? Now you need even more young people.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#64

Post by Sol- »

queuebert wrote: post #16

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

Because progress and growth makes us wealthier and happier? It's pretty simple.

People say "Oh, but GDP isn't everything" - but it's correlated with almost everything good, so might as well be.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#65

Post by bnjms »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #35
GiorgioG wrote: post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

Is housing really that expensive? When you price out a loan on a starter house it really ain't that bad. I'm a recent first time homebuyer and I don't understand why people think they aren't affordable. There were plenty of cheaper homes that I looked at and even with rates at their highest would be cheaper than my rent. Do people expect a palace? Are there more unmarried people today who can't afford it alone?

How much cost do you consider a first time home as costing?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#66

Post by anonymars »

mothballed wrote: post #28
queuebert wrote: post #16

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

The Social Security system relies on creating a debt of unborn children to older people based on those older people having already paid now dead people, so keeping it solvent requires more meat for the tax machine. A pyramid inversion means the old keep voting for OPM from the young, using their numbers to crush them, meanwhile there are fewer and fewer young to actually pay it. Eventually creating instability, coupl…

Mentioning Social Security and government implies there is some other form of retirement that doesn't inherently depend on younger people still working, doesn't it? I mean, who else going to grow the food and sweep the streets?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#67

Post by nemomarx »

nradov wrote: post #45
mmastrac wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

Despite the hype cycle around humanoid robots it's unlikely that they'll advance enough to be capable of replacing many human workers in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities within our lifetimes. Expect to see lots of really sad stories about elder abuse and neglect because as a society we simply won't have the resources to adequately care for them all.

I kinda expect nursing and people paid to give attention to the elderly to be the last job standing. very hard to replace or automate

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#68

Post by jdlyga »

Once you have a kid, it's obvious why even besides the costs involved. There's not much sense of community, particularly in the white middle class. People are very individualistic and distrusting of others. There's a good reason for some of this, but to have a community you need to be a community member. And that means letting people in, trusting others and being trustworthy, and being out for the group instead of just yourself.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#69

Post by jandrewrogers »

queuebert wrote: post #16

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

The growing population of economically non-productive people requires a growing population of economically productive people to support them. At some point, you could take 100% of the output of the productive people and it would still not be enough to support retirees et al.

At the limit, not growing the productive population puts younger generations in a position of existing solely for the purpose of serving the non-productive population. At some point, they will simply choose to opt out and the whole thing collapses.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#70

Post by dbspin »

postflopclarity wrote: post #22
sandworm101 wrote: post #9

Good. As the working population stagnates perhaps employers will attach some value to workers. Of course, without an underclass of immigrant labor, prices will rise and the US will have to import more food. And temporary heathcare workers can be brought in to help the aging population. It's good that America's cordial relationships with key trading partners will facilitate the free movement of goods and labor ... #1…

facilitating the free movement of labor across borders by... abducting and abusing all the laborers coming across our borders? very curious

I think you missed the sarcasm.
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