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The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

blog.asmartbear.com

61–70 of 134 posts

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually it does work that way. If I thought that 3 companies with questionable business models each had a 50% chance of becoming worth 3X their valuation in 2 years, it would probably make sense for me to invest in all 3 even if it meant they also each had a 50% chance of becoming worth zero in 2 years. Finance is very much built around the concepts of diversification and risk taking.

> Actually it does work that way. And then you go on to provide an example completely opposite of what he was saying.

I took both the poster I replied to and the poster above his under consideration when I replied. Finance doesn't require all companies be sustainable, only that some companies grow enough to offset losses taken on unsustainable companies.

It is a general principal of how investments work.

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#62
When Margo Georgiadis joined and then soon left GroupOn before the IPO, that said a lot. I'd imagine she had a hefty equity path lined up that she walked away from, so she must not have been pleased with what she saw. Unfortunately the markets tend to be pretty irrational so I didn't attempt it but we all could've made some extra $$$ shorting GRPN stock.

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#63
post #2

This is diplomatic and charitable. When I see a repeat pattern of GroupOn and Zynga type companies I see someone who knows how to pump and dump. It's not quite fraud but it's getting close, given how loose these sorts of people typically play the truth.

Calling Zynga and Groupon pump-and-dump schemes is a mark of one's one's understanding of business in much the same way that believing vaccines cause autism is a mark of one's understanding of science. Mark Pincus and Andrew Mason are both still running these companies. Running a public company that's doing badly is extraordinarily painful. No one would bring that on himself.

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#64
I wonder what people who strike it rich on vaporware tell their children when asked what they did to make money?

I mean what does Mark Cuban tell his kids? "I built this website and it was shut down, but I'm bloody rich anyways, so..."

I mean I personally would feel like a horrible role model to the children after that. Does this sort of information turn your children into thinking the end justifies the means?

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#65
post #2

This is diplomatic and charitable. When I see a repeat pattern of GroupOn and Zynga type companies I see someone who knows how to pump and dump. It's not quite fraud but it's getting close, given how loose these sorts of people typically play the truth.

I don't think it's fraud, or anything like it. After all, there is something so-far sustainable here, and it's not the companies; it's the pattern (which is not quite new), and fraud is never sustainable. I have a theory about why we see this pattern, and it starts with how those companies are financed.

VCs fund many promising startups, often flooding them with money that can support the company for a long time, while maintaining a very active public image that perpetuates the sense that the company is successful. Not only is the actual business value hidden, VCs encourage the companies to not try to turn a profit, but to grow very, very quickly. This is, perhaps, what obscures the actual value the most.

Now, why do VCs do that? Because they hope for a good ROI, and some of them do quite well (the entire portfolio taken together, of course). Some say that VC's true desired goal for a company is an IPO, but IPOs are rare, and, I think a good IPO (for anyone who's not Facebook) is only about 10x that of a good acquisition. So I believe, that it is the acquisitions (that outnumber IPOs more than 10x) that really drive the VC investments, and, in turn, the whole industry.

But how can acquisitions be the bread-and-butter of the industry if so many of them fail (for the acquirer, that is)? Because, on the whole, acquisitions are still much cheaper for the acquirers than funding their own technology - or market - research. Instead of throwing a lot of money on large, money-hungry research departments, Big Tech would rather let a ton of entrepreneurs and VCs fight it out, and award the winners handsomely. The price they pay is far less than what they would have had to invest doing independent research.

So, who loses? I'm not sure anyone does. Entrepreneurs get the independence, excitement, and the possibility of huge payoffs of a winner-takes-all market; VCs - well, some of them - do alright, and Big Tech saves a ton of money on thousands of employees they don't need to directly employ and manage. Oh, and bloggers and industry insiders get a lot of juicy gossip and cautionary tales.

The one remaining question is, how come so many companies seem very promising, get good indications from the market, and then slowly (or quickly) declines. I don't have a good answer, but I do have a hypothesis. Web companies mostly compete in a global market. That means that in order for them to succeed, all relevant consumers must learn about them, and must learn about them quickly (fast growth, right?). But this is just not possible, because the average consumer can only keep in mind a bounded (and rather small) set of vendors. So, not only is, say, Groupon competing with uhmm, I dunno, Amazon, maybe for the purchase of some items, it is also competing with Zynga over my time. And not only that, it's even competing with Salesforce because there are only so many products I can even remember to use on a regular basis. And when new startups are funded, they are encouraged to very quickly get global attention, and - out with old, in with the new - novelty seeking consumers forget about yesterday's big thing.

So all of these companies are competing with one another for attention, so the question is, how many fast-growth, global companies can even prosper at the same time?

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#67
post #28

I'm surprised no one's mentioned Twitter. They are one of the most successful internet things and yet they still don't seem to have any really solid way to monetize that. They are now part of culture but are they revenue positive? The things they are doing lately don't make sense until you take that into account: Restricting 3rd party apps and APIs? Seems to be driving users away... Except that if all your users are…

What's wrong with selling ads? You could argue that Twitter is doing it poorly, but I don't think it's fundamentally different from what, say, Facebook or LinkedIn are doing.

doesn't LinkedIn make a bunch of money on their premium service?

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#68
post #63
post #2

This is diplomatic and charitable. When I see a repeat pattern of GroupOn and Zynga type companies I see someone who knows how to pump and dump. It's not quite fraud but it's getting close, given how loose these sorts of people typically play the truth.

Calling Zynga and Groupon pump-and-dump schemes is a mark of one's one's understanding of business in much the same way that believing vaccines cause autism is a mark of one's understanding of science. Mark Pincus and Andrew Mason are both still running these companies. Running a public company that's doing badly is extraordinarily painful. No one would bring that on himself.

That's a rather off-colour reply, it has to be said, sir. First you resort to an absurd comparison in a poor attempt at snark, then you claim that Mark Pincus and Andrew Mason are severely pained by their lacklustre performance on the public markets, without providing any evidence of that. This deserves downvotes in my opinion.

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#69
post #21

Interestingly, Mark Pincus, who was Nguyen's co-founder in two of the 'pump-and-dump' schemes listed in the article (Freeloader and Support.com)[1], seems to be on an eerily similar path with Zynga.[2] -- [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Pincus [2] http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/10/05/zynga-kee...

In hindsight, calling Freeloader and Support.com "pump-and-dump schemes" was not entirely fair of me, because both companies had real products and customers. If I could edit my comment, I would refer to them as "overhyped startups ultimately doomed to failure in which the founders cashed out before the collapse." That seems more fair.

Re: The rise of the “successful” unsustainable company

#70
post #55

I'm surprised no one's mentioned Twitter. They are one of the most successful internet things and yet they still don't seem to have any really solid way to monetize that. They are now part of culture but are they revenue positive? The things they are doing lately don't make sense until you take that into account: Restricting 3rd party apps and APIs? Seems to be driving users away... Except that if all your users are…

Twitter sells access to its raw firehose. You may not be willing to pay for it, but many large companies are.

Right, it's akin to a wire service for news organizations, and it's priced similarly not surprisingly.
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