Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

bloomberg.com

61–70 of 98 posts

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#61
post #31

BTC failed to live up to it's own prophecy by not doubling from the last height of ca. 69420 to at least 140k in 2025. There was a last chance in October of last year, where it seemed to get close but ultimately it just didn't find enough buyers. Now with the narrative broken (bitcoin always goes up over the long term) one sell off will lead to the next as more and more people lose trust.

and it has proven to not be a great hedge against inflation (lately, short term)

the digital gold narrative falls apart when non-digital gold outperforms it and nobody wants it for its digital properties (payments, blockchain, etc.)

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#62
post #47

Whether the price goes up or down from here, one notion has been sufficiently shattered over the last couple of years - that Bitcoin is a stable ~source~ store of value that acts has a hedge against inflation and currency control by governments. While assets like gold and silver have surged in the same time period due to political and economic uncertainty, as one may expect, Bitcoin has gone in the opposite direction…

[deleted]

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-gold-having proles. Just about everybody on the planet knows gold is highly valuable. But isn't this all based on belief? What if you break the spell? During the Dutch Tulip Mania you could've replaced "gold" with "tulip" and changed a few adjectives and it was the same until the spell broke... I don't…

Gold has been used as a store of value for bascially all of recorded human civilization. Sheep get sick and die, and you have to feed them.

Civilization has had a habitable planet for the entirity of its run. When food and water are scarce, what good will metal do?

Yeah, when food and water are scarce, rearing sheep will be hard too.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold has been used as a store of value for bascially all of recorded human civilization. Sheep get sick and die, and you have to feed them.

Civilization has had a habitable planet for the entirity of its run. When food and water are scarce, what good will metal do? Yeah, when food and water are scarce, rearing sheep will be hard too.

Also what are you going to do when your tiny gold coin is worth thousands of dollars? Shave off tiny flakes of it and trade it for eggs?

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#65
post #59
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A large fraction of gold mined every year is used for its material properties in industrial and electronic applications. That presents a very real floor on price. If good was suddenly worth 1/10th as much we would use it in far more industrial applications thus driving up the price. Similarly mining would slow down from the current ~3,000 tons annually again driving the price up. Gold is currently priced way above th…

> A large fraction of gold mined every year is used for its material properties in industrial and electronic applications. I thought that was less than 10%. That's a very low floor! (That said, gold is sound money)

Hence why I said at 1/10th the price we would use a lot more of it.

There’s easily decades worth of industrial use in vaults so the instantaneous floor is quite low. However feedback occurs well before you hit the actual limits here.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#66
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can easily trade gold today. You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts to the goons pressganging people into dying in the trenches so they take your bitcoin hoarding neighbor instead. You can easily trade gold after a nuclear apocalypse to your local warlord so you get access to non-irradiated food. Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-go…

This can’t be a serious comment. If ww3 starts the respective countries central banks will keep the gold for themselves. You are so naieve if you think any government is going to honour the fact that you have a piece of paper that saya you own some gold in their vault.

It is not like they haven't done lot to collect it off the population in such scenarios during previous crises. My guess is that if WW3 breaks out. For duration your gold will have rather little use. At best you get price set by government. At worst it will be confiscated. And black market will probably be only place to use it.

And post WW3. If there is economy left. It will be while before people lock back on gold.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#67
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can easily trade gold today. You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts to the goons pressganging people into dying in the trenches so they take your bitcoin hoarding neighbor instead. You can easily trade gold after a nuclear apocalypse to your local warlord so you get access to non-irradiated food. Gold is a pretty, shiny rock and rich people like pretty, shiny things so they can display their superiority to no-go…

> You can easily trade gold if ww3 starts If you want something you can trade post ww3 also stockpile alcohol, tobacco, coffee, etc. . Small luxuries everyone will be willing to trade for in a post war country.

Sugar and salt are non-perishable if stored in right conditions. Later one does not get too much use. But first one can be turned to drugs and those are always popular.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#68
post #47

Whether the price goes up or down from here, one notion has been sufficiently shattered over the last couple of years - that Bitcoin is a stable ~source~ store of value that acts has a hedge against inflation and currency control by governments. While assets like gold and silver have surged in the same time period due to political and economic uncertainty, as one may expect, Bitcoin has gone in the opposite direction…

A currency has no intrinsic value except a minimal one; for BTC, we can say it was 10k BTC for two pizzas. The subsequent value didn't come from speculation but from an underlying economy. In BTC case, it was the D-Company that sold drugs for BTC and with BTC bought weapons, explosives etc for Al-Qaeda, and those who sold them accepted BTC because they could sell it for local fiat currencies to various D-Company customers. From there, it was an uphill race.

The decline came when it moved from the criminal economy, which was well-supplied and very interested in exchanging BTC, to Wall Street, interested in speculating and with capital far greater than states evading sanctions and criminal groups.

However, the decline is always relative, because in its brief existence to date, BTC is still the asset that has gained the most value over time compared to any other.

Despite many technical problems https://blog.dshr.org/2025/09/the-gaslit-asset-class.html, it has spread. Running a node costs, let's say, a BitAxe/NerdMiner+Raspberry Pi+2TB of storage and an internet connection, meaning it's within reach of many. Once you have a node, you can set up a Lightning channel with your own node to have a "wallet" for everyday payments with low fees and sufficient TPS to pay for a coffee, if the seller accepts SAT.

In other words, it truly is an asset against failed currencies, authoritarian governments, geopolitical quakes, and so on. It isn't much compared to gold only because most people don't own BTC, don't know how to use it, so in a major crisis, well, only a few would know what to do, and these few would still need other things for daily exchanges. However, these few could, for example, flee a country taking wealth with them. Something that in a major crisis isn't guaranteed to be possible otherwise.

So, it isn't much of a currency at this moment. The currency uses that gave it the bulk of its super-value during this period are reduced, while speculative ones are high. It isn't very sustainable for the miners' economy without a rising price, and this creates a very dangerous downward spiral because, to date, states and giant actors accumulate BTC here and there but don't do much mining, and the interest in keeping the network up remains to be seen how it will hold over time. But it does have value in the current context.

The problem is always that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. The market isn't made up entirely of homines economici, but only some, and many other purely emotional subjects whose reasoning seems more constructed after the fact to justify emotional choices.

Personally, I suspend judgment. I've never really digested the definition of "store of value" nor that of digital gold, but I don't digest gold either because in itself it has minimal value; the super-value is pure psychology that can change at any time, ESPECIALLY in a major crisis where most are hungry and don't eat ingots. I just wonder in case of a major crisis what the few who have BTC can do with it, besides waiting for better times.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's the perfect time to buy

Because the whales are dumbasses?

Let's say if I had old-school BTC, mined personally or bought back in the day for very little fiat currency and today it's an enormously larger sum, I'd say it's time to not keep all my eggs in one basket and rebalance my portfolio.

For example, I'd say it's actually been time for a while now, ever since the crypto-tax wave start to hit, to convert into fiat currency and buy land, houses, assets that, IF the state doesn't collapse and they're chosen in reasonable areas, could still preserve significant value, allow you to flee to another country (houses purchased abroad) if necessary etc.

If someone had put 0.001% of their capital or even 0.01% into old-school BTC and today finds themselves with 50% of their capital in BTC, it's high time to give some thought to diversification.

Smart contracts will become the contracts of the future and NFTs will be digital identity is pretty obvious; we don't know WHO will be used by whom for these tasks, but it's clear that this is what they'll be because they're the most functional choice we have in the trend toward rules as code. The problem is that the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, so it's a gamble, but also a logical diversification in its own right as well.

The only highly uncertain element is the miners' ability to withstand long periods of loss.

Re: Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018

#70
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Civilization has had a habitable planet for the entirity of its run. When food and water are scarce, what good will metal do? Yeah, when food and water are scarce, rearing sheep will be hard too.

Also what are you going to do when your tiny gold coin is worth thousands of dollars? Shave off tiny flakes of it and trade it for eggs?

You could write on a piece of paper that says you promise to give the bearer of that paper gold of the equivalent value..
Post reply on HN