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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#61

Post by acdha »

kakacik wrote: post #54
epolanski wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

> Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. I see nothing wrong here, correction back to reality. I understand why people adored him blindly in the early days, but liking him now after its clear what sort of person he is and always will be is same as liking trump. Many people still do it, but its hardly a defensible position unless on is already invested in his empire…

It’d be best for everyone outside of the company but he and the board would be buried in lawsuits for the rest of their lives. They have a strong personal interest in avoiding that even if it’s well-deserved based on sober data analysis, so they’re pushing the Hail Mary play trying to jump into a bigger new market which they haven’t already ceded to the competition.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#62

Post by tzs »

cbeach wrote: post #39
lvl155 wrote: post #23

I am so tired of people defending Tesla. I’ve wrote off Tesla long time ago but what gets me are the people defending their tech. We all can go see the products and experience them. The tech needs to be at least 100x more error free vs humans. It cannot be on par with human error rate.

We tend to defend companies that push the frontiers of self-driving cars, because the technology has the potential to save lives and make life easier and cheaper for everyone. As engineers, we understand that the technology will go from unsafe, to par-with-humans, to safer-than-humans, but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safegua…

Note: this is in response to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46823760 which is from the same commenter but got killed before there was time to post any links refuting its claims.

> The "salute" in particular is simply a politically-expedient freeze-frame from a Musk speech, where he said "my heart goes out to you all" and happened to raise his arm. I could provide freeze-frame images of Obama and Hilary Clinton doing similar "salutes" and claim this makes them "far right fascists" but I would never insult the reader's intelligence by doing so.

For Obama and Clinton you can find freeze frames showing their arm in a similar position, but when you look at the full video it was in the middle of something that does not match a Nazi salute. Here are several examples: https://x.com/ExposingNV/status/1881647306724049116?t=CGKtg0...

If you had a camera in my kitchen you could find similar freeze frames of me whenever I make a sausge/egg/cheese on an English muffin breakfast sandwich because the ramekin I use to shape the egg patty is on the top shelf.

With Musk the full video shows it matches from when his arm starts moving to the end of the gesture. See https://x.com/BartoSitek/status/1882081868423860315?t=8F0hL-...

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#63

Post by UltraSane »

mcherm wrote: post #16
SilverBirch wrote: post #2

To be honest I think the true story here is: > the fleet has traveled approximately 500,000 miles Let's say they average 10mph, and say they operate 10 hours a day, that's 5,000 car-days of travel, or to put it another way about 30 cars over 6 months. That's tiny! That's a robotaxi company that is literally smaller than a lot of taxi companies. One crash in this context is going to just completely blow out their stat…

> The real take away is that the Robotaxis don't really exist More accurately, the real takeaway is that Tesla's robo-taxis don't really exist.

Because it is fraud trying to inflate Tesla stock price.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#64

Post by UltraSane »

fragmede wrote: post #9
mikkupikku wrote: post #8

All these self driving and "drivers assistance" features like lane keeping exist to satisfy consumer demand for a way to multitask when driving. Tesla's is particularly cancerous, but all of them should be banned. I don't care how good you think your lane keeping in whatever car you have is, you won't need it if you keep your hands on the wheel, eyes on the road, and don't drive when drowsy. Turn it off and stop tryi…

We made drunk driving super illegal and that still doesn't stop people. I would rather they didn't in the first place, but since they're going to anyway, I'd really rather they have a computer that does it better than they do. FSD will pull over and stop if the driver has passed out.

Modern cars could easily detect drunk like driving and stop or call the cops.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#65

Post by alkonaut »

cbeach wrote: post #39
lvl155 wrote: post #23

I am so tired of people defending Tesla. I’ve wrote off Tesla long time ago but what gets me are the people defending their tech. We all can go see the products and experience them. The tech needs to be at least 100x more error free vs humans. It cannot be on par with human error rate.

We tend to defend companies that push the frontiers of self-driving cars, because the technology has the potential to save lives and make life easier and cheaper for everyone. As engineers, we understand that the technology will go from unsafe, to par-with-humans, to safer-than-humans, but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safegua…

> but in order for it to get to the latter, it requires much validation and training in an intermediate state, with appropriate safeguards.

I expect self-driving cars to be launched unsupervised on public roads in only an order-of-magnitude safer than human drivers shape. Or not launch at all.

One can pay thousands of people to babysit these cars with their hands on the wheel for many years until that threshold is reached, and if no one is ready to pay for that effort then we'll just drive ourselves until the end of time.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#66

Post by UltraSane »

epolanski wrote: post #49
sammyjoe72 wrote: post #29

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company. There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing . Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla. In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.…

I really hope I live to see Tesla stock crash to a reasonable valuation.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#67

Post by LunicLynx »

fabian2k wrote: post #12
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

I think it's fair to put the burden of proof here on Tesla. They should convince people that their Robotaxis are safe. If they redact the details about all incidents so that you cannot figure out who's at fault, that's on Tesla alone.

While I think Tesla should be transparent, this article doesn't really make sure it is comparing apples to apples either.

I think its weird to characterize it as legitimate and the say "Go Tesla convince me ohterwise" as if the same audience would ever be reached by Tesla or people would care to do their due diligence.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#68

Post by LunicLynx »

xnx wrote: post #25
z7 wrote: post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

Tesla could share real/complete data at any time. The fact that they don't is likely and indicator the data does not look good.

You can do this with every topic. XYZ does not share this, so IT MUST BE BAD.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#69

Post by gruez »

kakacik wrote: post #52
cbeach wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

[flagged]

>You sure like defending him a lot, [...]

That's... entirely expected of someone that has memories and a personality? It's like showing up to /r/starwars and telling some random person "you sure like star wars a lot"

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#70

Post by happymellon »

LunicLynx wrote: post #68
xnx wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla could share real/complete data at any time. The fact that they don't is likely and indicator the data does not look good.

You can do this with every topic. XYZ does not share this, so IT MUST BE BAD.

And it usually is.
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