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The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

bayramovanar.substack.com

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Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#61

Post by peacebeard »

cong-or wrote: post #47

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse. But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career? A few scenarios I keep turning over: 1. Bifurcation -…

I am 10+ years into my career. I don’t think mgmt / entrepreneurship feels like the only sustainable path. But I believe I may become a manager of a 5-10 Claudes.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#62

Post by nkrisc »

copilot_king wrote: post #18
lm28469 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And how does it follow that AI is a net negative when wielded by professionals who are excellent at what they do? Simple, the 80% of code monkeys who are not good at what they do will cause way more damages than the "professionals who are excellent at what they do". And out fo tech I can guarantee you the vast majority of people use llms to do less, not to do more or do better It's also easily verifiable, supposedl…

[flagged]

So where are the AI-induced gains?

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#63

Post by jacquesm »

resters wrote: post #57

Proven businesses can always borrow at fairly low rates. When capital gets really cheap it starts to incentivize greater amounts of risk taking because investors actually want risk. If you are starting a dry cleaning business, you have a cost of the equipment, rent and other well known factors. Starting a tech company in a new and unproven area has different expenses and a different risk/reward profile. Malinvestment…

Cheap venture capital is uniquely driven by the interest rate more than any other factor. Low interest rates drive money away from safer vehicles towards more risky vehicles because they still offer a return. This is good far people starting companies, but in the long run the decision makers on those investments almost always turn out to have mis-priced the risk factor and end up with negative returns.

This then causes the market to dry up again and if the interest rate hasn't dropped even further then a lot of companies that need follow up investment will now get killed off. It's a very Darwinian landscape that results from this and I've been wondering for years if there isn't a better way to do this.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#64

Post by bhadass »

solid analysis but i think you're missing the logical endpoint here: this doesn't end with companies "relearning scarcity"... it ends with the permanent contractor-ification of various types of work at these tech companies (not just tech roles, but other types of roles at these companies). already, contractor-to-employee ratio has gotten higher and higher at these companies in recent years and I expect this to continue.

ZIRP (especially the "double tap" ZIRP in 2021/2022) created this monster (bootcamp devs getting hired, big tech devs making "day in the life of" tiktok vids).

contractors give:

instant scale up/down without layoff optics

no benefits overhead

no severance obligations

easy performance management (just don't renew)

this mirrors what other industries typically do after large restructuring waves ... manufacturing got temp agencies and staffing firms as permanent fixtures post-rust belt collapse. tech is just catching up to the same playbook.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#65

Post by nalekberov »

Mostly true, but AI accelerated that process:

- Senior Engineers now often is sufficient for most tasks, Junior Engineers seems like a burden rather than a boost during development process

- Companies feel comfortable with hiring fast and firing fast

- Tech Market is now flooded with not-so-good engineers having good experience with good AI coding assistants - which already are capable of solving 80% of the problems - they are ready to work for much less than really experienced engineers

In general, yes, companies overhired many software developers, hoping they will continue hyper growing, but then reality has kicked in - this was not sustainable for most businesses.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#66

Post by dangus »

stego-tech wrote: post #54

I will add some commentary from my subjective POV in IT: “Efficiency” is a damned lie . Enterprise IT is one of the most inefficient spaces out there, full of decades of band-aids layered atop one another in the form of fad products, fancy buzzwords, and “defining leadership” projects. The reason you cannot get shit done at work quickly isn’t because of bureaucracy or management layers standing in the way so much as…

I think you need some kind of source to back up the idea that IT or the software industry as a whole isn’t efficient.

Software companies have much higher profit margins than companies that ship physical products. There really aren’t many industries that do better margins than software.

To sell software, you don’t need a production facility, warehouse, nor do you even need an office building if you don’t want one.

https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile...

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#67

Post by syx »

cong-or wrote: post #47

Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse. But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career? A few scenarios I keep turning over: 1. Bifurcation -…

As someone with many animator friends, this sounds very bleak. Their work processes are very similar to software engineering, with the difference that their hiring process is much quicker (they just show a bunch of reels and shots they made for previous films or cartoons, and they’re hired). The sad part is that they have almost no labor rights, and competition is incredibly high, which means pay is very low and turnover is high. All these years, I’ve been setting my expectations that one day my field may become like that.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#68

Post by noosphr »

jakubmazanec wrote: post #53

I'm not arguing against the core arguments of the article (I agree with most of the points), but on the other hand, software development is (at least currently) an essentially iterative process - one that differs greatly from other production processes (e.g. buildings, cars). We all know how difficult it is to estimate how much development time something takes. Planning is hard and outcomes have therefore greater var…

Your aren't building a car when you are writing software, you are building a car factory.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#69

Post by gadflyinyoureye »

copilot_king wrote: post #18
lm28469 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And how does it follow that AI is a net negative when wielded by professionals who are excellent at what they do? Simple, the 80% of code monkeys who are not good at what they do will cause way more damages than the "professionals who are excellent at what they do". And out fo tech I can guarantee you the vast majority of people use llms to do less, not to do more or do better It's also easily verifiable, supposedl…

[flagged]

If it is AGI and you have access to it, pivot from code now. You will make millions or billions on pharmaceutical products in as little as one month. Start making cures for non small cell cancers; those are untapped markets. Reverse aging. Even at $1mill a treatment over ten treatments, you would be sought after. Go! Get off HN! Rule the world.

Re: The tech market is fundamentally fucked up and AI is just a scapegoat

#70

Post by direwolf20 »

randomtoast wrote: post #32

If you make a prediction that the stock market is about to collapse every year, then one year you will eventually get it right.

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But why do you think gold has tripled in price?
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