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AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

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Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#61

Post by analog31 »

alphazard wrote: post #12

AI will replace humans in performing every cognitive task, unless you believe that there is something about biology that makes it categorically better for certain kinds of computation. There's no reason to believe that's the case. LLMs and specifically auto-regressive chat bots with transformers for prediction will probably not replace engineers any time soon. They probably won't ever replace humans for the most cogn…

>>>AI will replace humans in performing every cognitive task, unless you believe that there is something about biology that makes it categorically better for certain kinds of computation.

Why will they want to?

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#62

Post by steve1977 »

pixl97 wrote: post #56
steve1977 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe? I guess the better question is "when?" And also at what cost and at what scale? Will we be able to construct a supercomputer/datacenter that can match or exceed human intelligence? Possibly, even probaby. But that would only be one instance of such an AGI then and it would be very expensive. IMHO it will take a long time to produce something like that as a commodity.

Remember when a digital computer was not a device, but the entire floor of a building? We will be able to construct a datacenter that exceeds human intelligence. And every year after that the size of the datacenter will get smaller for the same intelligence output. Eventually it will be a rack. Then a single server. Then something that is portable.

> Remember when a digital computer was not a device, but the entire floor of a building?

Well I don't actually remember, because - depending on your definition of digital computer - it was around 80 years ago and I wasn't born yet. Which is kind of my point. Eventually, we might get there. And I can imagine that simpler AI systems will help to bootstrap more AI systems. But there is still a lot work to be done.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#63

Post by game_the0ry »

direwolf20 wrote: post #20
game_the0ry wrote: post #6

"Will AI replace software engineers?" is not the right question and stems from a misunderstanding of how tech affects humans and how they work. Tech is a tool. It will take away some jobs, and then create new ones. Think of a combine tractor -- it took away crop picking jobs, but created a new job of combine tractor driver. It bumps productivity. The correct frame is "how can software engineers (or anyone, for that m…

Combine tractors deleted jobs. You can't say there are as many combine tractor drivers as there were crop pickers. Anyway they don't need drivers now as they're fully robotic. The only reason society didn't collapse: there were enough other jobs to absorb those displaced workers. Will there always be?

But we were also able to feed a lot more people for a lot fewer resources in a lot less time.

> Combine tractors deleted jobs.

Number of jobs is not the metric to key off of. If that were the case, we should get rid of combine tractors and pay people to farm by hand bc it would increase the number of jobs.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#64

Post by direwolf20 »

game_the0ry wrote: post #63
direwolf20 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Combine tractors deleted jobs. You can't say there are as many combine tractor drivers as there were crop pickers. Anyway they don't need drivers now as they're fully robotic. The only reason society didn't collapse: there were enough other jobs to absorb those displaced workers. Will there always be?

But we were also able to feed a lot more people for a lot fewer resources in a lot less time. > Combine tractors deleted jobs. Number of jobs is not the metric to key off of. If that were the case, we should get rid of combine tractors and pay people to farm by hand bc it would increase the number of jobs.

That's been a suggestion to avoid societal collapse. People could be paid to do useless menial work as a proof of work, so that people will still have money and society won't collapse.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#65

Post by OptionOfT »

augusteo wrote: post #19

The tractor analogy keeps coming up in these threads, and I think it's actually more pessimistic than people realize. Tractors didn't just change farming. They emptied entire regions. What saved the people (not the communities) was that other industries absorbed them. Factory work, services, construction. The question for software isn't whether AI creates efficiency. It's whether there's somewhere else for displaced…

I thought like you 5 months ago.

I've come to the conclusion that we won't be replaced, because a majority of our work is to split up business questions, probe, ask around for other people's knowledge, assemble, build a plan etc.

AI only knows what it knows, it doesn't go after the unknowns. It is reactionary in its nature.

Now, let's say something happens and I'm wrong: let's think about that. The AI can do stuff like that. I think when that happens the economy as we know it collapses, and we've got bigger fish to fry. I would say, if this happens, nearly all white-collar jobs are disappearing.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#69

Post by drecked »

analog31 wrote: post #61
alphazard wrote: post #12

AI will replace humans in performing every cognitive task, unless you believe that there is something about biology that makes it categorically better for certain kinds of computation. There's no reason to believe that's the case. LLMs and specifically auto-regressive chat bots with transformers for prediction will probably not replace engineers any time soon. They probably won't ever replace humans for the most cogn…

>>>AI will replace humans in performing every cognitive task, unless you believe that there is something about biology that makes it categorically better for certain kinds of computation. Why will they want to?

Because humans will want them to in order to outcompete the other human who currently has the most powerful AI, unless we show restraint and cooperation the kind of which we’ve never displayed in our existence.

We might end up answering the Fermi paradox within our lifetimes.

Re: AI will not replace software engineers (hopefully)

#70

Post by vunderba »

Espressosaurus wrote: post #39
elevatortrim wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I do not understand is why is it that software engineers are so afraid? I have heard from so many other white collar people that AI already changed their job entirely (technical salesmen, translators, designers, government researchers, the list goes on), yet it is the software engineers that I hear the most noise from. Software engineering is one of the most intellectually demanding categories of white collar wo…

Sampling bias. You're on a site dominated by software engineers, in the field of software engineering, and likely have a lot of software engineer friends. Translators got fucked, there's very little market for them compared now compared to decades past. Find their forums and I bet you'd have seen similar worry.

Agreed. The job market for ad-copy, proofreading, etc. also got collectively set on fire - particularly in the gig economy.
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