Your brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of cognitive debt when using an AI assistant

You may be right, but for a different reason: the majority apps on Apple and Google appstores will be 100% AI generated crapware.

I hate it, but I'm actually counting on this and how it affects my future earning potential as part of my early(ish) retirement plan!

I do use them, and I also still do some personal projects and such by hand to stay sharp.

Just: they can't mint any more "pre-AI" computer scientists.

A few outliers might get it and bang their head on problems the old way (which is what, IMO, yields the problem-solving skills that actually matter) but between:

* Not being able to mint any more "pre-AI" junior hires

And, even if we could:

* Great migration / Covid era overhiring and the corrective layoffs -> hiring freezes and few open junior reqs

* Either AI or executives' misunderstandings of it and/or use of it as cover for "optimization" - combined with the Nth wave of offshoring we're in at the moment -> US hiring freezes and few open junior reqs

* Jobs and tasks junior hires used to cut their teeth on to learn systems, processes, etc. being automated by AI / RPA -> "don't need junior engineers"

The upstream "junior" source for talent our industry needs has been crippled both quantitatively and qualitatively.

We're a few years away from a _massive_ talent crunch IMO. My bank account can't wait!

Yes, yes. It's analogous to our wizzardly greybeard ancestors prophesying that youngsters' inability to write ASM and compile it in their heads would bring end of days, or insert your similar story from the 90s or 2000s here (or printing press, or whatever).

Order of "dumbing down" effect in a space that one way or another always eventually demands the sort of functional intelligence that only rigorous, hard work on hard problems can yield feels completely different, though?

Just my $0.02, I could be wrong.

It's more complex than that. The three pillars of learning are theory (finding out about the thing), practice (doing the thing) and metacognition (being right, or more importantly, wrong. And correcting yourself.). Each of those steps reinforce neural pathways. They're all essential in some form or another.

Literacy, books, saving your knowledge somewhere else removes the burden of remembering everything in your head. But they don't come into effect into any of those processes. So it's an immensely bad metaphor. A more apt one is the GPS, that only leaves you with practice.

That's where LLMs come in, and obliterate every single one of those pillars on any mental skill. You never have to learn a thing deeply, because it's doing the knowing for you. You never have to practice, because the LLM does all the writing for you. And of course, when it's wrong, you're not wrong. So nothing you learn.

There are ways to exploit LLMs to make your brain grow, instead of shrink. You could make them into personalized teachers, catering to each student at their own rhythm. Make them give you problems, instead of ready-made solutions. Only employ them for tasks you already know how to make perfectly. Don't depend on them.

But this isn't the future OpenAI or Anthropic are gonna gift us. Not today, and not in a hundred years, because it's always gonna be more profitable to run a sycophant.

If we want LLMs to be the "better" instead of the "worse", we'll have to fight for it.

> In the near future there will be no developers needed at all for the majority of apps.

Software CEOs think about this and rub their hands together thinking about all the labor costs they will save creating apps, without thinking one step further and realizing that once you don't need developers to build the majority of apps your would-be customers also don't need the majority of apps at all.

They can have an LLM build their own customized app (if they need to do something repeatedly, or just have the LLM one-off everything if not).

Or use the free app that someone else built with an LLM as most app categories race to the moatless bottom.

Some people have the ability to navigate with land markers quickly and some people don't.

I saw this first hand with coworkers. We would have to navigate large builds. I could easily find my way around while others did not know to take a left or right hand turn off the elevators.

That ability has nothing to do with GPS. Some people need more time for their navigation skills to kick in. Just like some people need to spend more time on Math, Reading, Writing, ... to be competent compared to others.