Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#61

Post by Ekaros » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

baxtr wrote: post #51

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I no AI fanboy at all. I think it there won’t be AGI anytime soon. However, it’s beyond my comprehension how anyone would think that we will see a decline in demand growth for compute. AI will conquer the world like software or the smartphone did. It’ll get implemented everywhere, more people will use it. We’re super early in the penetration so far.

At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#62

Post by mikkupikku » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

iancmceachern wrote: post #55

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#63

Post by syntaxing » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC

I’m more curious how these “future” contract will work out. Supposedly, a bunch of RAM is paid and allocated for that isn’t even made yet. If the bubble ever pops, the collateral is going to be on the order of 2007 subprime mortgage crisis

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#64

Post by rbtprograms » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC

eagerpace wrote: post #41

rwmj wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.

This is the beauty of Polymarket. Then bet on it. There are so many more outcomes possible to this conflict than what you see reported in the media. Don't be so reductive.

[flagged]

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#65

Post by bob1029 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC

fullshark wrote: post #31

rwmj wrote: post #2

It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.

What does the US gov't do in response? Wouldn't they throw globs of money at Intel and Nvidia?

They already have.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#66

Post by linkregister » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

The common factoid raised in financial reports is GPUs used in model training will lose thermal insulation due to their high utilization. The GPUs ostensibly fail. I have heard anecdotal reports of GPUs used for cryptocurrency mining having similar wear patterns.

I have not seen hard data, so this could be an oft-repeated, but false fact.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#67

Post by traceroute66 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:25 PM UTC

The simple answer to the question:

Nvidia stock crash will happen when the vendor financing bubble bursts.

They are engaged in a dangerous game of circular financing. So it is case of when, not if the chickens come home to roost.

It is simply not sustainable.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#68

Post by nebula8804 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:26 PM UTC

blackoil wrote: post #50

khalic wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

An EU type agreement will keep peace for some time. Remove all trade barriers between two countries, have a treaty preventing any side to be used militarily by third party, no attacking each other and free movement of all vessels through each other's seas. Maybe few more

Thats just buying China more time until they can get their chip manufacturing to at least a similar ballpark. Then Taiwan has no cards left to play. China can cripple TSMC depriving the west of chips while they continue onwards.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#69

Post by Ekaros » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:26 PM UTC

mikkupikku wrote: post #44

khalic wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk the pro china side is getting more and more support, at this rate they’ll vote themselves into mainland

At this rate, even if they can't get the Taiwanese population to consent, it probably makes more sense to wait anyway to see how low America can sink. The lower America goes, the better their chance for success.

China is capable of taking long term view, beyond single election cycle. And currently USA really seems to be heading down faster and faster.

If something even more drastic happens. China might even attempt unification with some reasoning like protecting Taiwan from USA or other nations.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#70

Post by echelon » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:26 PM UTC

iancmceachern wrote: post #55

mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

They're no longer energy competitive. I.e. the amount of power per compute exceeds what is available now. It's like if your taxi company bought taxis that were more fuel efficient every year.

Nvidia has plenty of time and money to adjust. They're already buying out upstart competitors to their throne.

It's not like the CUDA advantage is going anywhere overnight, either.

Also, if Nvidia invests in its users and in the infrastructure layouts, it gets to see upside no matter what happens.