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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#61

Post by erxam »

refulgentis wrote: post #42
erxam wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That just sounds like more 'strongly worded letters' which never go anywhere and they never do anything about. It's over for the EU. They rested on their laurels for too long and cowardice rotted them from the inside. I don't think Denmark will put even a smidge of resistance up. Trump is going to bark some orders, boots are going to hit the ground and it's fait accompli .

What does action (i.e. not-strongly-worded-letters, i.e. not words) look like? Capture Trump? Invade the US? The idea the EU is some bureaucratic hellhole incapable of anything is really odd and nigh-universal - I'm used to righties adopting it from Brexit & antipathy for social demoracy, but I'm not used to see it as a despondent wailing from people otherwise sympathetic to it. Note no one even mentioned the EU - it…

Any sort of pushback at all would be an improvement.

Even now, the EU Commission is trying to 'defuse' the Greenland situation by trying to invoke NATO's fifth article, as if that's worth anything without the will of the USA behind it. You know, instead of like actually drawing out plans for a military alliance, economic retribution (remember all those sanctions against Big Tech which fell apart the moment Trump made even the slightest comment against them?) or… just about anything.

Laws are worth even less than the paper they're written on, and no amount of naïve idealism (and calling it that is me being generous!) will change that. NATO membership is worthless other than as an aesthetic signifier.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#62

Post by hdgvhicv »

literalAardvark wrote: post #50
eastbound wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s be honest, that was a crazy operation. I wonder whether they really secured all chances of success, or just winged it with chances of not depositing the leader, and him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA. While on their way out, if the USA could set everything back to IPv6, that would be nice.

> him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA. As if. Dictators only do things that benefit themselves, and deciding to attack the US is suicide and/or world ending.

Took a long time to catch up with Bin Laden after he attacked the US.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#63

Post by t0mas88 »

Someone1234 wrote: post #43
t0mas88 wrote: post #12

Alternative theory: Part of the operation caused power outages or disrupted some connections, the BGP anomalies were a result of that. The data would make that more likely, because deliberately adding a longer route doesn't achieve much. It's not usually going to get any traffic.

The BGP anomalies were 24-hours~ before the power outage, so I'm not sure I follow what you're arguing.

What I mean is that cause and effect here could be different then the author thinks. We see some route changes, but those changes make no sense on their own since they wouldn't capture any traffic. That makes it more probable that BGP was not the attack, but that some other action caused this BGP anomalie as a side effect.

For example, maybe some misconfiguration caused these routes to be published because another route was lost. Which could very well be the actual cyber attack, or the effect of jamming, or breaking some undersea cable, or turning off the power to some place.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#64

Post by refulgentis »

lysace wrote: post #45
refulgentis wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does action (i.e. not-strongly-worded-letters, i.e. not words) look like? Capture Trump? Invade the US? The idea the EU is some bureaucratic hellhole incapable of anything is really odd and nigh-universal - I'm used to righties adopting it from Brexit & antipathy for social demoracy, but I'm not used to see it as a despondent wailing from people otherwise sympathetic to it. Note no one even mentioned the EU - it…

Action probably looks like crash-starting multiple nuclear weapons programs. With or without the help of the british/french. Probably with. I'd imagine programs from: the Nordics and Poland+Baltics. Maybe Germany, probably not.

What happens when you start making nukes and the US doesn't want you to?

Ssetting aside the whole non-proliferation thing, or expense (see NK), etc.

Let's get serious, please.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#65

Post by lingrush4 »

slyn wrote: post #51
lingrush4 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If having nuclear weapons did anything at all to prevent cyber attacks, the US would not be getting constantly victimized by cyber attacks.

I think by "this kind of operation" he means extrajudicially removing a sitting president (legitimate or not) of another country for trial elsewhere. Not cyber attack or espionage.

Oh, so the commenter is not actually talking about the BGP anomalies at all? He's just hijacking the comment section to advocate for nuclear proliferation?

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#66

Post by lenerdenator »

cheema33 wrote: post #27

If you were not already entirely reliant on American tech before, this ought to convince you to put jump in with both feet. What could possibly go wrong?

It's pick-your-poison, really.

Technology is notoriously expensive to develop and manufacture. One must either have native capacity (and thus, the wealth) to do so, or must get it from someone else.

Other Western/US-aligned countries might have the ability to do so, albeit at geopolitical and economic cost, because the only thing you're likely to gain from kicking the US out of your tech stack and infrastructure is a tech stack and infrastructure free of the US. Meanwhile American companies will be developing new features and ways of doing things that add economic value. So at best, a wash economically. Maybe the geopolitical implications are enticing enough.

Places like Venezuela? Nah. They'll be trading the ability of Americans to jack with their tech infrastructure for the ability of the PRC, Non-US Western nations, or Russia to jack with their tech stack.

The geopolitics of technology are a lot like a $#1+ sandwich: the more bread you have, the less of someone else's $#1+ you have to eat.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#67

Post by bawolff »

cheema33 wrote: post #27

If you were not already entirely reliant on American tech before, this ought to convince you to put jump in with both feet. What could possibly go wrong?

There is not really any reason to conclude that "american tech" was responsible for this attack. If anything, given all the sanctions Venezuela was under and how friendly they are with china, i would be surprised if they were using american tech in their infrastructure.

[Of course i agree with the broader point of dont become dependent on the technology of your geopolitical enemies]

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#69

Post by lawlessone »

refulgentis wrote: post #29
Herring wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not sure why this got downvoted Fragile egos. Narcissists desperately need to feel good about themselves. They're caught in a cycle: feel worthless -> do bad things (feed the ego) -> feel worthless.

It's not only downvoted, it was flagged, and dead . (flag accepted by moderator, no one else will see this comment thread without expanding) Mr. Trump good. Trump derangement syndrome bad. If Mr. Trump does what you say eventually, then it was good. (see rule #1) I see this frequently on HN since the re-election, won't speculate as to why: only way around the downvote is to criticize policy generically, untethered to…

Of course, because this site is control of Mark Eggman Andrreesen.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#70

Post by NoMoreNicksLeft »

JasonADrury wrote: post #57
bawolff wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From bgp hijacking? Almost certainly not. It would probably rule out the type of decapitation strike the US did, but bgp hijacking is way way below on the escalation ladder.

Nuclear capability wouldn't necessarily rule out this kind of a decapitation strike, it's just that it's very hard to imagine this kind of an operation actually being successful in any nuclear-capable country. The US couldn't just fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes. Most likely every single one of those helicopters would end up being shot down.

>It's extremely difficult to believe that the US could fly a bunch of helicopters to Pyongyang or Tehran and do the same within 30 minutes.

Would your answer change if China were somehow guaranteed to not intervene? Because I'm not sure the obstacle here is North Korean defenses, so much as Chinese intervention.

Tehran? I think it'd go more or less like Caracas did.

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