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AI will kill all the lawyers

spectator.com

61–70 of 71 posts

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#61

Not sure it will replace them, but a tool that allows folks to have a better understanding of the legal system and how to navigate it will certainly impact the existing power systems (of which lawyers are a part).

That sounds just like the argument used to replace programmers and we see what kind of hell that's causing.f Which is not to say you're wrong, but maybe we should look at ways of making the transition better, easier and less stressful. Perhaps actually giving people a choice, rather than having technocrats ram it down our throats.

I think that choice is already happening in a way that is as natural as we're going to get. I found the recent legal business with Perez Hilton kind of interesting. Take this passage from this story https://www.cjr.org/feature/perez-hilton-og-original-news-in...:

> Still, there was a problem. Hilton’s insurance would not foot the bill for a lawyer to defend against a subpoena. He would have to cover his legal costs out of pocket. Instead of finding an attorney, he did two things legal experts always advise against: he decided to represent himself and to use ChatGPT to help draft his legal briefs. At first, this did not go smoothly. An early filing written by ChatGPT, which Hilton nicknamed Dad, invented several legal references. “There’s this phenomenon called ghost law,” Hilton said. “They make up citations, they make up anything.” After a set of embarrassing errors was called out on social media, Hilton started double- and triple-checking every citation, and asked ChatGPT to review its own output. The process went more smoothly from there—so much so that Hilton came to see AI as a great legal leveler. “Now that I know that I can so effectively use ChatGPT, I’m not going to be paying a lawyer unless it’s absolutely necessary,” he told me.

The (imperfect) tools gave him the ability to keep his case alive, and he was eventually taken up by the ACLU. While Hilton is far from a sympathetic underdog, the levelling effect is pretty compelling.

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#62
post #39

Law has one of the strongest "unions" in the form of the Bar Association, backed by legal force. You cannot practice law without "passing they bar" as they say. The lawyers who operate the Bar can just decide they wont be replaced and then they wont, AI will remain a tool used by human lawyers.

>You cannot practice law without "passing they bar" You are however entitled to represent yourself without passing the bar, and thus use the AI to help your case. Even for the remaining lawyers, I imagine that their billable hours will crater due to competitive dynamics.

Perez Hilton tried this with some success: https://www.cjr.org/feature/perez-hilton-og-original-news-in...

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Allow me to explain a contrarian position. Judges favor individuals that use an expensive lawyer for representation, even if there isn't much of a legal argument to be made. Judges give such individuals a far better deal. The reason for this is that hiring an expensive lawyer shows that you've paid homage to the legal profession with your wallet, that you support the systemic judicial-attorney-penalty complex. It g…

> but this is out-of-touch and silly. Expensive lawyers can get better deals in court even for run-of-the-mill cases. Why is this? Are cheaper lawyers so dumb that they can't even handle common cases?

Expensive lawyers have better relationships with opposing parties, have more and better legal research both already on hand and available to be done, with more and smarter people doing research, with more and more experienced people available to consult, and may hire outside consultants when the situation calls for it.

They can also better afford to play dirty in various ways, from burying you in discovery documents to dragging things out with various motions.

And in general, yes — they often also have at least slightly smarter lawyers (and more eyes on the case). That doesn't mean cheaper lawyers are dumb, and there are smart lawyers out there who aren't incredibly expensive, but the average intelligence goes up noticeably as you interact with more expensive firms (which tracks, because they hired people with the top performance in and possibly after law school).

AI may close the gap on some things, but not others.

FYI, even lawyers who represent themselves generally don't do well, no matter how smart they are or how much experience they have in that area. But that's not because the judge wants them to pay into the cartel -- it's because law is hard, there are a million factors affecting performance on a particular case, and one major factor is ability to keep perspective on your case. People are uniformly terrible at this when looking at their own cases.

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#64

Allow me to explain a contrarian position. Judges favor individuals that use an expensive lawyer for representation, even if there isn't much of a legal argument to be made. Judges give such individuals a far better deal. The reason for this is that hiring an expensive lawyer shows that you've paid homage to the legal profession with your wallet, that you support the systemic judicial-attorney-penalty complex. It gra…

It’s an interesting theory, but I had to downvote as you didn’t provide any references for your bold assertion. Is there data that bears this out? And even if there were, how could it be distinguished from more expensive lawyers simply doing better at representing their clients?

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#65
post #32

Law has one of the strongest "unions" in the form of the Bar Association, backed by legal force. You cannot practice law without "passing they bar" as they say. The lawyers who operate the Bar can just decide they wont be replaced and then they wont, AI will remain a tool used by human lawyers.

You can't create derivative works of copyrighted materials either, yet here we are. I'm sure they'll find a creative loophole.

Easy, you can have a company scale a few lawyers into thousands of cases and call it a day. The total number of working lawyers would dwindle if they are competing on price.

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#66
post #39

Law has one of the strongest "unions" in the form of the Bar Association, backed by legal force. You cannot practice law without "passing they bar" as they say. The lawyers who operate the Bar can just decide they wont be replaced and then they wont, AI will remain a tool used by human lawyers.

>You cannot practice law without "passing they bar" You are however entitled to represent yourself without passing the bar, and thus use the AI to help your case. Even for the remaining lawyers, I imagine that their billable hours will crater due to competitive dynamics.

> Even for the remaining lawyers, I imagine that their billable hours will crater due to competitive dynamics.

Billable hours will absolutely crater for lawyers who cater to a low-end clients (esp. for defense) and lawyers who are not good business people.

That said, the best lawyers will almost certainly still be in incredibly high demand, since higher-end lawyering (much like banking) is a personal business as much or more than it is a technical one. AI will simply allow these lawyers to do more and better work.

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#68
post #59
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want my lawyer armed with LLMs to not do that. There are some promising AI-driven tools these days that use search against archives of cases to help check that citations aren't garbage. I'm hoping lawyers start using them to help pick apart each other's laziness.

> I want my lawyer armed with LLMs to not do that. The only way to guarantee that is to have a lawyer not armed with LLMs. We've seen dozens of examples already of lawyers doing exactly that. (Some of them have then doubled down in court, to their eventual detriment.) If you're making a habit of using LLMs to draft briefs for you, how long before you just forget to check the cited cases to replace the hallucinated on…

I believe it's possible for a lawyer to be more competent that, even if they have access to LLM tools.

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#69
post #18

I think theoretically, it's okay for LLMs to write legal briefs, to replace attorneys. Write the best argument you can with whatever tools you want. What worries me is the idea of them replacing JUDGES.

Isn't there a Chris Pratt movie about this coming out in January?

Thought at first this was the Garfield sequel, but apparently yes, the movie is Mercy. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt31050594/

Re: AI will kill all the lawyers

#70
post #52

Legal representation is the sibling of security. Security itself is a journey, not a destination. To say that you are secure is to say that you have been so clever that nobody else in the history of ever again will ever be as clever as you just were. Even knowing that they can study you being clever. Even a super intelligent AI might not be able to replace lawyerhood unless it is also dynamically going out into the w…

So same as AI replacing anyone else
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