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Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

karpathy.bearblog.dev

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Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#61

Post by rafaelmn »

siliconc0w wrote: post #6

Random Bets for 2035: * Nvidia GPUs will see heavy competition and most chat-like use-cases switching to cheaper models and inference-specific-silicon but will be still used on the high end for critical applications and frontier science * Most Software and UIs will be primarily AI-generated. There will be no 'App Stores' as we know them. * ICE Cars will become niche and will be largely been replaced with EVs, Solar w…

I'd take the other side for most of these - Nvidia one is too vague (some could argue it's already seeing "heavy competition" from Google and other players in the space) but something more concrete - I doubt they will fall below 50% market share.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#62

Post by cootsnuck »

neilv wrote: post #52

> I spent a few hours browsing around and found it to be very interesting. This seems to be the result of the exercise? No evaluation? My concern is that, even if the exercise is only an amusing curiosity, many people will take the results more seriously than they should, and be inspired to apply the same methods to products and initiatives that adversely affect people's lives in real ways.

> My concern is that, even if the exercise is only an amusing curiosity, many people will take the results more seriously than they should, and be inspired to apply the same methods to products and initiatives that adversely affect people's lives in real ways.

That will most definitely happen. We already have known for awhile that algorithmic methods have been applied "to products and initiatives that adversely affect people's lives in real ways", for awhile: https://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/roots-of-unity/revie...

I guess the question is if LLMs for some reason will reinvigorate public sentiment / pressure for governing bodies to sincerely take up the ongoing responsibility of trying to lessen the unique harms that can be amplified by reckless implementation of algorithms.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#63

Post by magic_hamster »

collinmcnulty wrote: post #41
doctoboggan wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had the same though as Karpathy over the past couple of months/years. I don't think it's good, exciting, or something to celebrate, but I also have no idea how to prevent it. I would read his "Best to be good." as a warning or reminder that everything you do or say online will be collected and analyzed by an "intelligence". You can't count on hiding amongst the mass of online noise. Imagine if someone were to co…

This is my plan at least 1. Don't build the Torment Nexus yourself. Don't work for them and don't give them your money. 2. When people you know say they're taking a new job to work at Torment Nexus, act like that's super weird, like they said they're going to work for the Sinaloa cartel. Treat rich people working on the Torment Nexus like it's cringe to quote them. 3. Get hostile to bots. Poison the data. Use AdNause…

This seems to me like a form of social engineering, or to some extent, being a bit insufferable. And, rest assured it will not result in anything useful. The only result of this is that you will alienate your friends and colleagues if they work for an employer you don't like.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#64

Post by [deleted] »

pu_pe wrote: post #8
siliconc0w wrote: post #6

Random Bets for 2035: * Nvidia GPUs will see heavy competition and most chat-like use-cases switching to cheaper models and inference-specific-silicon but will be still used on the high end for critical applications and frontier science * Most Software and UIs will be primarily AI-generated. There will be no 'App Stores' as we know them. * ICE Cars will become niche and will be largely been replaced with EVs, Solar w…

The infamous Dropbox comment might turn out to be right in 10 more years, when LLMs might just build an entire application from scratch for you.

[deleted]

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#65

Post by [deleted] »

collinmcnulty wrote: post #41
doctoboggan wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've had the same though as Karpathy over the past couple of months/years. I don't think it's good, exciting, or something to celebrate, but I also have no idea how to prevent it. I would read his "Best to be good." as a warning or reminder that everything you do or say online will be collected and analyzed by an "intelligence". You can't count on hiding amongst the mass of online noise. Imagine if someone were to co…

This is my plan at least 1. Don't build the Torment Nexus yourself. Don't work for them and don't give them your money. 2. When people you know say they're taking a new job to work at Torment Nexus, act like that's super weird, like they said they're going to work for the Sinaloa cartel. Treat rich people working on the Torment Nexus like it's cringe to quote them. 3. Get hostile to bots. Poison the data. Use AdNause…

[deleted]

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#66

Post by DANmode »

dietr1ch wrote: post #51
moultano wrote: post #10

Notable how this is only possible because the website is a good "web citizen." It has urls that maintain their state over a decade. They contain a whole conversation. You don't have to log in to see anything. The value of old proper websites increases with our ability to process them.

> because the website is a good "web citizen." It has urls that maintain their state over a decade. It's a shame that maintaining the web is so hard that only a few websites are "good citizens". I wish the web was a -bit- way more like git. It should be easier to crawl the web and serve it. Say, you browse and get things cached and shared, but only your "local bookmarks" persist. I guess it's like pinning in IPFS.

Let Reddit and friends continue to out themselves for who they are.

Keeps the spotlight on carefully protected communities like this one.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#67

Post by flir »

doctoboggan wrote: post #32
collinmcnulty wrote: post #23

> But if intelligence really does become too cheap to meter, it will become possible to do a perfect reconstruction and synthesis of everything. LLMs are watching (or humans using them might be). Best to be good. I cannot believe this is just put out there unexamined of any level of "maybe we shouldn't help this happen". This is complete moral abdication. And to be clear, being "good" is no defense. Being good often…

I've had the same though as Karpathy over the past couple of months/years. I don't think it's good, exciting, or something to celebrate, but I also have no idea how to prevent it. I would read his "Best to be good." as a warning or reminder that everything you do or say online will be collected and analyzed by an "intelligence". You can't count on hiding amongst the mass of online noise. Imagine if someone were to co…

That's not my department, says Wernher von Braun.

Don't know why that just popped into my head.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#68

Post by drdec »

dietr1ch wrote: post #51
moultano wrote: post #10

Notable how this is only possible because the website is a good "web citizen." It has urls that maintain their state over a decade. They contain a whole conversation. You don't have to log in to see anything. The value of old proper websites increases with our ability to process them.

> because the website is a good "web citizen." It has urls that maintain their state over a decade. It's a shame that maintaining the web is so hard that only a few websites are "good citizens". I wish the web was a -bit- way more like git. It should be easier to crawl the web and serve it. Say, you browse and get things cached and shared, but only your "local bookmarks" persist. I guess it's like pinning in IPFS.

> It's a shame that maintaining the web is so hard that only a few websites are "good citizens"

It's not hard actually. There is a lack of will and forethought on the part of most maintainers. I suspect that monetization also plays a role.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#69

Post by tptacek »

'pcwalton, I'm coming for you. You're going down.

Kidding aside, the comments it picks out for us are a little random. For instance, this was an A+ predictive thread (it appears to be rating threads and not individual comments):

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10703512

But there's just 11 comments, only 1 for me, and it's like a 1-sentence comment.

I do love that my unaccredited-access-to-startup-shares take is on that leaderboard, though.

Re: Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

#70

Post by nickff »

cootsnuck wrote: post #58
modeless wrote: post #40

This is a cool idea. I would install a Chrome extension that shows a score by every username on this site grading how well their expressed opinions match what subsequently happened in reality, or the accuracy of any specific predictions they've made. Some people's opinions are closer to reality than others and it's not always correlated with upvotes. An extension of this would be to grade people on the accuracy of th…

The RES (Reddit Enhancement Suite) browser extension indirectly does this for me since it tracks the lifetime number of upvotes I give other users. So when I stumble upon a thread with a user with like +40 I know "This is someone whom I've repeatedly found to have good takes" (depending on the context). It's subjective of course but at least it's transparently so. I just think it's neat that it's kinda sorta a loose…

I am not a Redditor, but RES sounds like it would increase the ‘echo-chamber’ effect, rather than improving one’s understanding of contributors’ calibration.
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