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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#61

Post by chasd00 »

master_crab wrote: post #17
chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat. Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

“Slightly higher than flat” is still a new record.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#62

Post by cal_dent »

I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbing along. Not great guns but still ok. The interesting thing is how much is internet chatter a leading signal for this thing now than in previous cycles?

Outside of the unique circumstances of covid, we've never had, to my knowledge, a notable downturn when social media, and all the chatter it generates, has been so prominent or mass engaged. How much of it is just internet noise vs canary in the coal mine stuff. Who knows? But curious to find out in coming months/year

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#63

Post by OgsyedIE »

bequanna wrote: post #57
OgsyedIE wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The investment thesis in AI is that the decline in consumer spending in the other sectors of the economy won't matter when the consumers cease to be a significant participant in the economy in the near term: that moving investment away from the activity in agriculture, transportation, goods and services, etc., is rational because those sectors are soon to be obsolete when their customers buying power and long term ca…

I’m not sure I follow. So, are you saying that wealth will become completely concentrated at the top and the rest of us are obsolete, out of work and broke? That seems unlikely. What is the point of an economy if there is no one who is actually able to consume?

There will not be no one who is able to consume. The investment thesis is that the investment classes' servant robot armies will be doing trillions of USD of consumption, mostly in metals, munitions, chips, etc.

I don't agree with the thesis, but that is what the thesis is.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#64

Post by cal_dent »

bequanna wrote: post #57
OgsyedIE wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The investment thesis in AI is that the decline in consumer spending in the other sectors of the economy won't matter when the consumers cease to be a significant participant in the economy in the near term: that moving investment away from the activity in agriculture, transportation, goods and services, etc., is rational because those sectors are soon to be obsolete when their customers buying power and long term ca…

I’m not sure I follow. So, are you saying that wealth will become completely concentrated at the top and the rest of us are obsolete, out of work and broke? That seems unlikely. What is the point of an economy if there is no one who is actually able to consume?

more importantly, good luck to any country that has to deal with an environment full of huge swathes of people festering with the anger and nihilism that comes from going from something to nothing...not for me

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#65

Post by XorNot »

arnonejoe wrote: post #59
bequanna wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know this is the bottom?

You don’t know until unemployment and GDP numbers are released. Generally when the fed starts making successive rate cuts, the economy is doing poorly. Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held power. So maybe that is also why I think we have a little way to go before things get better. I’m not sure why that is and I don’t want to start a political debate. Things will get better. They always d…

Yes if only the US still released those numbers...

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#66

Post by cute_boi »

rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

It is all due to outsourcing. AI/H1B isn't taking that much job. Unless government put penalties on outsourcing market isn't going to improve.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#67

Post by forgotoldacc »

arnonejoe wrote: post #59
bequanna wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know this is the bottom?

You don’t know until unemployment and GDP numbers are released. Generally when the fed starts making successive rate cuts, the economy is doing poorly. Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held power. So maybe that is also why I think we have a little way to go before things get better. I’m not sure why that is and I don’t want to start a political debate. Things will get better. They always d…

Things do tend to get better, but the time scale can vary. It's hard to tell whether we're deep into a recession, or we're just starting to walk into a depression. You never really know which it is in the first year.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#68

Post by estearum »

almosthere wrote: post #45
master_crab wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, only the rich are powering this economy now. That bodes poorly for the country’s stability long term.

can also look at it as an opportunity to gather friends and start a small drywall company. Those are in demand, for example. The rich are building more buildings than ever. If you live in the bay area, you can very well see 300k / year if you keep yourself busy.

Then if you're successful, you can sell it to a PE firm where it will further buoy the rich!

Can't see how this positive feedback loop gets us to a bad place at all!

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#69

Post by mullingitover »

arnonejoe wrote: post #59
bequanna wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we know this is the bottom?

You don’t know until unemployment and GDP numbers are released. Generally when the fed starts making successive rate cuts, the economy is doing poorly. Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held power. So maybe that is also why I think we have a little way to go before things get better. I’m not sure why that is and I don’t want to start a political debate. Things will get better. They always d…

> Since 1953 10 out of 11 recessions happened when republicans held power

I used to think this was because the party that represents the ruling class didn't know what they were doing.

Now I think these economic collapses and ensuing fire sales are not accidents, they know exactly what they're doing.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#70

Post by clumsysmurf »

mollusc-engine wrote: post #26
rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

I became a USPS mail carrier instead. Certainly less pay but I love being outside and walking. And no Jira, changing the color of that button, or steeping myself in Frank’s eldritch horror code.

I would definitely try this if the vehicles in Phoenix ran cleaner. The old ones have such bad smelling exhaust and you are always breathing it because of the semi-open cab.
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