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I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

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Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#61

Post by keeda »

Levitz wrote: post #34
jstummbillig wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There's definitely a bubble, because companies are buying up infrastructure which doesn't need to be used right now. Source? Satya Nadella seems to disagree with your statement (at least as I understand both): https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadell...

Can Satya Nadella be honest regarding this subject? "Ah yes we invested $13B into OpenAI but it's a bubble"

It's not just Satya, the CEOs of all the hyperscalers are consistent in their messaging over the last several quarters that they are backlogged on capacity. Not only are they saying it, they are putting their money where their mouths are by actively burning double-digit billions of their free cash flow on this buildout.

How probable is it that all these competitors are colluding on the same story while burning what would have otherwise been very healthy profits?

Occam's razor and all that.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#62

Post by keeda »

I dunno... Consider:

1. Token prices keep plummeting even as models are getting stronger.

2. Most models are being offered for free at a significant loss, so reducing costs would be critical to maintain some path to sustainability.

3. Every hyperscaler has been consistently saying for the past several quarters that they are severely constrained on capacity and in fact have billions in booked backlogs. That is, if they had more capacity they would actually be making even more billions.

I can totally imagine the smaller players renting these cloud resources for their private model uses to be rather inefficient (which is where the 50% utilization number comes from), probably because they are prioritizing time-to-market over other aspects. But I would wager that resource efficiency, at least for inference, is absolutely a top priority for all the big players.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#63

Post by giardini »

kronicum2025 wrote: post #18

I see a lot of comments here criticizing the author, and I think both teams have a point. There's definitely a bubble, because companies are buying up infrastructure which doesn't need to be used right now. But also, the companies are buying up this infrastructure because whoever controls the infrastructure also controls the industry in around 5 years time.

Nobody knows what will be happening "in around 5 years time"!

Economic and social predictions beyond 2 years are sketchy at best.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#64

Post by giardini »

cpldcpu wrote: post #11

What also cannot be ignored, is that transformer models are a great unifying force. It's basically one architecture that can be used for many purposes. This eliminates the need for more specialized models and the associated engineering and optimizations for their infrastructure needs.

And if better models than transformers are found? Or if someone finds models that do not rely on GPUs or specialized hardware?

Neither the hyperscalers nor NVDA are safe from uncertainty.

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