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AGI is not possible even in 10 years

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Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#61

> The architecture might just be wrong for AGI. LeCun’s been saying this for years: LLMs trained on text prediction are fundamentally limited. They’re mimicking human output without human experience. Yes, and most with a background in linguistics or computer science have been saying the same since the inception of their disciplines. Grammars are sets of rules on symbols and any form of encoding is very restrictive. W…

Why would language restrict LLMs? "Language" is an input/output interface. It doesn't define the internals that produce those inputs and outputs. And between those inputs and outputs sits a massive computational process that doesn't operate on symbols or words internally. And, what "clearer milestones" do you want exactly? To me, LLMs crushing NLU and CSR was the milestone. It was the "oh fuck" moment, the clear sign…

Language massively restricts LLMs because there's no way to create novel concepts while limited to existing language.

Humans create new words and grammatical constructs all the time in the process of building/discovering new things. This is true even in math, where new operators are created to express new operations. Are LLMs even capable of this kind of novelty?

There's also the problem that parts of human experience are inexpressible in language. A very basic example is navigating 3D space. This is not something that had to be explained to you as a baby, your brain just learned how to do it. But this problem goes deeper. For instance, intuition about the motion of objects in space. Even before Newton described gravitation every 3 year old still knew that an object that's dropped would fall to the ground a certain way. Formalizing this basic intuition using language took thousands of years of human development and spurred the creation of calculus. An AI does not have these fundamental intuitions nor any way to obtain them. Its conception of the world is only as good as the models and language (both mathematical and spoken) we have to express it.

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#62

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> It's really hard to argue that LLM's don't have intelligence in the way the earthworms do.

It's really easy to argue, actually. LLMs have intelligence the way humans online do. An earthworm is highly specialized for what it does and exists in a completely different context - I doubt an LLM would be successful guiding a robotic earthworm around since all it knows about earthworms is what researchers have observed and documented. The actual second-to-second experience of being an earthworm is not accessible as training data to an LLM.

Edit:

This is true almost by definition. An LLM (Large Language Model) can't have intelligence that's not expressible in language and earthworms are notoriously shy in interviews.

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#63

[flagged]

> It's really hard to argue that LLM's don't have intelligence in the way the earthworms do. It's really easy to argue, actually. LLMs have intelligence the way humans online do. An earthworm is highly specialized for what it does and exists in a completely different context - I doubt an LLM would be successful guiding a robotic earthworm around since all it knows about earthworms is what researchers have observed an…

[flagged]

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#65
post #42

It seems to me by most classical definitions we've basically already reached AGI. If I were to show Gemini 3 Pro to anyone in tech 10 years ago they would probably say Gemini 3 is an AGI, even if they acknowledged there was some limitations there. The definition has moved so much that I'm not convinced that even if we see further breakthroughs over the next 10 years people will say we've finally reached AGI because e…

LLMs do NOT have intelligence. Achieving AGI would mean solving self-driving cars, replacing programmers, scientist, etc. All things LLMs are currently unable to do in a way that replaces humans.

There's a huge gap between what Gemini 3 can do and what AGI promises to do. It's not just a minor "technical definition".

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#66
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is true then almost all of the jobs in the world would already be replaced by AI. Sure, the model might be better than most people at lots of things but there are still tasks that human children find easy and AI struggles with. I wouldn't call being better at something than humans being "smarter" than them; if you do, calculators must be smarter than humans since they have been better at adding up numbers tha…

For text and image-based tasks they are infinitely better than a human. What they lack are arms to interact with the physical world, but once this is done this is a giant leap forward (example: they will obviously be able to do experiments to discover new molecules by translating their steps-by-steps reasoning to physical actions, to build more optimized cars, etc). For now human is smarter in some real-world or edge…

There are forms of science that don't involve "arms". Why don't we see a single research paper involving research entirely undertaken by AI? AI development and research itself doesn't need "arms". Why don't we just put AI in a box and let it infintely improve itself? Why doesn't every company that employs someone who just uses a computer replace them with AI? Why are there no businesses entirely run by AIs that just tell humans what to do. Why don't the AIs just use CAD and electronic simulation to design themselves some "arms"? Why can't AI even beat basic videogames that children can beat?

The gap is huge.

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would language restrict LLMs? "Language" is an input/output interface. It doesn't define the internals that produce those inputs and outputs. And between those inputs and outputs sits a massive computational process that doesn't operate on symbols or words internally. And, what "clearer milestones" do you want exactly? To me, LLMs crushing NLU and CSR was the milestone. It was the "oh fuck" moment, the clear sign…

Language massively restricts LLMs because there's no way to create novel concepts while limited to existing language. Humans create new words and grammatical constructs all the time in the process of building/discovering new things. This is true even in math, where new operators are created to express new operations. Are LLMs even capable of this kind of novelty? There's also the problem that parts of human experienc…

> Its conception of the world is only as good as the models and language (both mathematical and spoken) we have to express it.

Which is pretty damn good, all things considered.

And sure, training set text doesn't contain everything - but modern AIs aren't limited to just the training set text. Even in training stage, things like multimodal inputs and RLVR have joined the fray.

I don't think "create novel concepts" is a real limitation at all. Nothing prevents an AI from inventing new notations. GPT-4o would often do that when talking to AI psychosis victims.

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#68
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is true then almost all of the jobs in the world would already be replaced by AI. Sure, the model might be better than most people at lots of things but there are still tasks that human children find easy and AI struggles with. I wouldn't call being better at something than humans being "smarter" than them; if you do, calculators must be smarter than humans since they have been better at adding up numbers tha…

For text and image-based tasks they are infinitely better than a human. What they lack are arms to interact with the physical world, but once this is done this is a giant leap forward (example: they will obviously be able to do experiments to discover new molecules by translating their steps-by-steps reasoning to physical actions, to build more optimized cars, etc). For now human is smarter in some real-world or edge…

>>For text and image-based tasks they are infinitely better than a human.

Sometimes. When the stars align and you roll the dice the right way. I'm currently using ChatGPT 5.1 to put together a list of meals for the upcoming week, it comes up with a list(very good one!), then it asks if I want a list of ingredients, I say yes, and the ingredients are completely bollocks. Like it adds things which are not in any recipe. I ask about it, it says "sorry, my mistake, here's the list fixed now" and it just removed that thing but added something else. I ask why is that there, and I shit you not, it replied with "I added it out of habit" - like what habit, what an idiotic thing to say. It took me 3 more attempts to get a list that was actually somewhat correct, although it got the quantities wrong. "infinitely better than a human at text based tasks" my ass.

I would honestly trust a 12 year old child to do this over this thing I'm supposedly paying £18.99/month for. And the company is valued at half a trillion dollars. I honestly wonder if I'm the bigger clown or if they are.

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#69

> The architecture might just be wrong for AGI. LeCun’s been saying this for years: LLMs trained on text prediction are fundamentally limited. They’re mimicking human output without human experience. Yes, and most with a background in linguistics or computer science have been saying the same since the inception of their disciplines. Grammars are sets of rules on symbols and any form of encoding is very restrictive. W…

Why would language restrict LLMs? "Language" is an input/output interface. It doesn't define the internals that produce those inputs and outputs. And between those inputs and outputs sits a massive computational process that doesn't operate on symbols or words internally. And, what "clearer milestones" do you want exactly? To me, LLMs crushing NLU and CSR was the milestone. It was the "oh fuck" moment, the clear sign…

Language is an interface between whatever our thoughts actually are and the outside world.

Imagine trying to write apps without thinking about the limitations of the APIs you use. In fact we just recently escaped that same stupidity in the SaaS era! That's how silly LLMs will seem in the near future. They will stick around as the smarter chatbots we've wanted for so long, but they are so very far away from AGI.

Re: AGI is not possible even in 10 years

#70

According to Clarke's First Law, "When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."

With all due respect to Arthur C. Clarke, I think science education is the only thing standing between us and even bigger scams and absolute chaos in the streets.

What is understood by a scientist isn't so far ahead from what the layperson understands these days compared to when Clarke wrote that.

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