61–70 of 235 posts
OpenAI just completed separating it's non-profit and for-profit restructuring: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/28/open-ai-for-profit-microsoft...
This probably means the for-profit structure will be going public in 2026, and there is probably a last private round happening.
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Why are you assuming people around you automatically have the means and desire to invest their own money into risky financial instruments? This is so weird.
Risky? He said it's EXTREMELY likely. There's little risk. Margin loans are available.
Did you know that you can be extremely correct in your medium term prediction and still get extremely margin called because of some random short term volatility?
Good point to cash out in my opinion. Extremely likely you can buy NVDA back cheaper in the future.
Maybe. Could go up still, but a surprisingly conservative move for SoftBank. But hey, maybe the market crashes tomorrow and this is seen as the best piece of timing ever seen, maybe it doubles in the next year. In any case, you never lose by taking profit.
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I would have thought that the OpenAI bet is way more risky, because if someone comes along with a better model it could really hurt OpenAI. NVIDIA seems harder to dethrone imo.
In many ways OpenAI is transitioning towards an end-user facing product business. They have by far the strongest brand among consumers and are positioning themselves to take on Google/Meta in the ad business. By proxy, having the strongest frontier model becomes less and less necessary for them and instead building a strong product by properly layering medium-strong models in a cost-efficient way is the priority.
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There is an AI bubble narrative, people are curious when it will burst. This is an indicator that people will want to analyse, discuss, and think about (intellectually).
I see. I guess I simply think that Softbank isn't a good indicator for that. To me, they don't seem better than any other investment company that puts their money into technology stocks with a growth narrative. For example, they invested in WeWork and FTX. They don't know the future, just like the rest of us. If we're talking indicators, if 5 Softbanks would do it in rapid succession one after another it just mention…
I wouldn't be surprised if they reinvest some of that money into AMD or similar, as those companies play catch up. AMD is bringing ROCM up to speed with AI models, and their consumer hardware is having pretty good press despite some PR fumbles.
Selling Nvidia stock isn't a sign of lack of faith, it's just an exit after strong results. Softbank think this is a peak or near enough, good for them.
As you say, until there's some breakthrough, there's little point keeping money in the dominant company.
Also, Nvidia appear to have delayed their 60-series GPUs, and this will cascade to their entreprise models, due to the 3GB module memory shortage. The next gen will be VRAM heavy, but you can't do that during a shortage, you need the market to correct tor for supply to increase. So any 'breakthrough' powered by new hardware is now about a year away.
This won't stop people secondguessing on the bubble front though. Personally, I think bubble popping is going to come from a lack of faith from investors in the downstream companies like OpenAI who are struggling to make money from their resource intensive products. Nvidia are already profitable with the hardware, MS/Google/Amazon will always make money with the servers. And if AI bursts, other sectors can soften the blow for those companies. It's the massively inflated AI model makers that need to worry about who makes it out of this profitably.
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Stock market is really, really interesting
I mean for me it is, but not in an intellectual sense. Don't get me wrong, there are some good articles on HN about HFT and the technicality of it, but this is just, I don't know. Why Softbank? Didn't other big investment banks/funds sold out of NVidia at some point? Cathy Wood maybe, at some point? Why wasn't that on HN? Stock news is barely on HN. Oh, wait, I guess I see it now. It is on HN way more frequently when…
Quality of technical content and discussions has visibly gone down since. More emotional/low-value/political replies everywhere. Slowly turning into /r/programmerhumor...
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In many ways OpenAI is transitioning towards an end-user facing product business. They have by far the strongest brand among consumers and are positioning themselves to take on Google/Meta in the ad business. By proxy, having the strongest frontier model becomes less and less necessary for them and instead building a strong product by properly layering medium-strong models in a cost-efficient way is the priority.
It's hard to see how they become profitable enough to justify current valuations. The numbers are just mind boggling even in the optimistic scenario.
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Stock market is really, really interesting
I mean for me it is, but not in an intellectual sense. Don't get me wrong, there are some good articles on HN about HFT and the technicality of it, but this is just, I don't know. Why Softbank? Didn't other big investment banks/funds sold out of NVidia at some point? Cathy Wood maybe, at some point? Why wasn't that on HN? Stock news is barely on HN. Oh, wait, I guess I see it now. It is on HN way more frequently when…
most of HN bought their houses on the back of softbank throwing money at everything that moved
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I would have thought that the OpenAI bet is way more risky, because if someone comes along with a better model it could really hurt OpenAI. NVIDIA seems harder to dethrone imo.
It's SoftBank though, weird risk taking investments seems to be their jam.