Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tough truths about climate

gatesnotes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 131 posts

Re: Tough truths about climate

#61

Post by energy123 »

balaz wrote: post #57
energy123 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Basically, the spherical cow mindset of "just police the borders harder" is wishful thinking. The world is interconnected in multiple aspects, not just physical borders. Even if you succeed in immunising yourself from all side effects, your immediate neighbor may not be successful, and the instability can come for you through many mechanisms. Prices of food, breakup of the EU, wars, authoritarianism in your own socie…

One of the reasons the best time to make sure every first-world country is self reliant was yesterday; the second best time is today.

Another spherical cow solution.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#62

Post by omikun »

HK-NC wrote: post #58
kennywinker wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he’s probably right, but to be clear there are billions of deaths that fit into his prediction. Humans living and thriving does not preclude a massive drop in population. It is very hard to gauge what he actually believes will happen based on these words

The plague did wonders for us, didnt it? Of course dead people arent livivng or thriving, but if they leave behind a world that has more job opportunities, housing opportunities, cleaner environments, quality food for less....

Ahh yes the Thanos argument

Re: Tough truths about climate

#63

Post by ACCount37 »

mariusor wrote: post #56
ACCount37 wrote: post #36

It's true. Climate change is not an extinction threat. Never was, and certainly isn't now. Climate change is the COVID of global natural disasters. Is it worth fighting? Yes. Can you do absolutely nothing about it and get away with it? Also yes. Cue the lackluster efforts. The "really bad" +4C scenarios still have a death toll larger than that of WW2 - but spread out in time and space, across many decades and many co…

And what do populations with a death sentence hanging over their heads usually do? Oh yeah, they take up arms and try to invade their better off neighbours. Maybe that's a worst case scenario, but the better ones still include many millions of people displaced towards more temperate zones. It will lead to the greatest migration humanity ever suffered and I'm not sure that in a scenario of scant resources, that's goin…

The obvious counterpoint to any "hordes of climate refugees will destroy the first world countries" is that borders exist, and machine guns were invented over a century ago.

The reality of modern warfare doesn't favor large forces, poorly organized and underequipped, that are attacking reasonably well prepared defense positions.

Now, is there a will to use all the tools of modern warfare against climate refugees? Currently, no. But if "hordes of climate refugees will destroy the first world countries" stopped being a distant theoretical concern, and became a practical one? If there were real examples of border checkpoints in first world countries being breached by force, with border security overran, and thousands of somewhat armed and somewhat violent climate refugees pouring in through the breach? I expect that to change very quickly.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#64

Post by ares623 »

energy123 wrote: post #61
balaz wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons the best time to make sure every first-world country is self reliant was yesterday; the second best time is today.

Another spherical cow solution.

I wonder how software engineers will fare in a “self reliant” economy. Do unvested stocks work in a barter?

Re: Tough truths about climate

#65

Post by tonyedgecombe »

ACCount37 wrote: post #47
OtherShrezzing wrote: post #42

I’m not sure this article is especially helpful. It’s addressed to the attendees of COP, but the attendees of COP already believe (almost unanimously) that adaptation has equal importance to mitigation. And it’s one of the only forums where poorer & disaffected nations are given a real opportunity. I’m also not sure that anyone anywhere earnestly believes that climate change is an extinction level event that’ll rende…

> I’m also not sure that anyone anywhere earnestly believes that climate change is an extinction level event that’ll render the entire planet unliveable. Certainly not the people at COP. A lot of people do believe that, unfortunately. Decades worth of the most alarmist coverage possible sure didn't help the public awareness. Now, people at COP? Hopefully not. But COP doesn't end with the people at COP. And there are…

>A lot of people do believe that, unfortunately.

No they don't.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#67

Post by [deleted] »

jader201 wrote: post #2

> Although climate change will have serious consequences—particularly for people in the poorest countries—it will not lead to humanity’s demise. People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future. Interesting and different perspective vs. what many others often say (but that’s one of the points he’s making). I feel a lot of climate articles — and the comments attached to their H…

[deleted]

Re: Tough truths about climate

#68

Post by tonyedgecombe »

picafrost wrote: post #38

> So I urge that community, at COP30 and beyond, to make a strategic pivot: prioritize the things that have the greatest impact on human welfare. Like addressing the exponential growth of income inequality? Unsurprisingly not mentioned at all. Might mean that billionaires have to give up their carbon credit purchases and then how could they be dismissive about their own emissions? Bill is one of the better ones with…

>Is this the one that lead to the term "embrace, extend, extinguish"?

It's the one that gave us IE6.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#69

Post by mariusor »

ACCount37 wrote: post #63
mariusor wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what do populations with a death sentence hanging over their heads usually do? Oh yeah, they take up arms and try to invade their better off neighbours. Maybe that's a worst case scenario, but the better ones still include many millions of people displaced towards more temperate zones. It will lead to the greatest migration humanity ever suffered and I'm not sure that in a scenario of scant resources, that's goin…

The obvious counterpoint to any "hordes of climate refugees will destroy the first world countries" is that borders exist, and machine guns were invented over a century ago. The reality of modern warfare doesn't favor large forces, poorly organized and underequipped, that are attacking reasonably well prepared defense positions. Now, is there a will to use all the tools of modern warfare against climate refugees? Cur…

Well, I wasn't try to imply that the refugees would win, and yes, that's entirely the point because the scenario qualifies as a breakdown of human civilization that Gates doesn't acknowledge. Even if some people will still be able to have their Sunday brunch while their country's borders are bathed in refugee blood.
Post reply on HN