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Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

calnewport.com

61–70 of 207 posts

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#62
> A company that still believes that its technology was imminently going to run large swathes of the economy, and would be so powerful as to reconfigure our experience of the world as we know it, wouldn’t be seeking to make a quick buck selling ads against deep fake videos of historical figures wrestling.

But also, a company that earnestly believes that it's about to disrupt most labor is going to want to grab as many of those bucks as possible before people no longer have income.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#63
post #57

I could see Sora having a significant negative impact on short form video products like TikTok if they don’t quickly and accurately find a way to categorize its use. A steady stream of AI generated video content hurts the value prop of short form video in more than one way… It quickly desensitizes you and takes the surprise out that drives consumption of a lot of content. It also of course leaves you feeling like you…

Didn't explicitly think about this, but you're right. I already dismiss off the bat a lot of surprising video content because I don't trust it.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#64

Any Llm generation tools are spam generation tools. AI-slop === Spam. How big is the market for spam again?

Unfortunately due to the generation / verification ratio, spam and misinformation are indeed their most low-hanging fruits. It's so much easier to generate LLM output than to verify it, which is probably why Google held back the Transformer Architecture.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#65

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

The problem is that we're already post truth. Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117 Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo. Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are…

> Finally, people don't really care about the truth.

That same link has two “reader notes” about truth.

The lie is half way around the world etc, but that can also be explained by people’s short term instincts and reaction to outrage. It’s not mutually exclusive with caring about truth.

Maybe I’m being uncharitable — did you mean something like “people don’t care about truth enough to let it stop them from giving into outrage”? Or..?

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#66

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

The problem is that we're already post truth. Just consider how a screenshot of a tweet or made-up headline already spreads like a wildfire: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1980221072512635117 Sora involves far more work than what is required to spread misinfo. Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view, or comfortable things. Or they dismiss things that are…

Assuming this is all true, what's the most optimistic view you can take looking ~20 years out?

How could all of this wind up leading to a much more fair, kind, sustainable and prosperous future?

Acknowledging risks is important, but where do YOU want all this to go?

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#68

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

If you don’t like any thing digital (image/video/text) then it’s definitely AI generated. I guess AI has kind of killed the “democratization of news” introduced by social media.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#69
post #57

I could see Sora having a significant negative impact on short form video products like TikTok if they don’t quickly and accurately find a way to categorize its use. A steady stream of AI generated video content hurts the value prop of short form video in more than one way… It quickly desensitizes you and takes the surprise out that drives consumption of a lot of content. It also of course leaves you feeling like you…

Do people on the dopamine drip really care how real their content is? Tons and tons of it is staged or modified anyways. I'm not sure there's anything Real™ on TikTok anyways.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#70

I'm more concerned about Sora (and video-generating AI in general) being the final pour that cements us into our post-truth world. People will be swayed by AI-generated videos while also being convinced real videos are AI. I'm kinda terrified of the future of politics.

People have been tricked by counterfeits ever since the invention of writing (or even drawing) first made it possible for a person to communicate without being physically present.

At that moment, it simultaneously became possible to create "deep fakes" by simply forging a signature and tricking readers as to who authored the information.

And even before that, just with speaking, it was already possible to spread lies and misinformation, and such things happened frequently, often with disastrous consequences. Just think of all the witch hunts, false religions, and false rumors that have been spread through the history of mankind.

All of this is to say that mankind is quite used to dealing with information that has questionable authorship, authenticity, or accuracy. And mankind is quite used to suffering as a result of these challenges. It's nothing particularly new that it's moving into a new media format (video), especially considering that this is a relatively new format in the history of mankind to begin with.

(FWIW, the best defense against deep fakes has always been to pay attention to the source of information rather than just the content. A video about XYZ coming from XYZ's social media account is more likely to be accurate than if it comes from elsewhere. An article in the NYTimes that you read in the NYTimes is more likely to be authentic than a screenshot of an article you read from some social media account. Etc. It's not a perfect measure -- nothing is -- but I'd say it's the main reason we can have trust despite thousands of years of deep fakes.)

IMO the fact that social media -- and the internet in general -- have decentralized media while also decoupling it from geography is less precedented and more worrisome.

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