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A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

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Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#61
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a giant chunk of the constellation can act as a truly huge antenna, what can you get from that? Super high resolution? Seek/dwell time on a target that is effectively infinite?

And we are going to put that in the hands of Elon musk? Are you fucking kidding me?

You're more worried about that than having it in the hands of the US government?

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#62

I'm curious if you could destroy a SpaceX Satelite with a basic laser pointers. Easily enough for normal state actors and some university or engineering lab. You need only to track it and shoot your laser up there (its only 500km) and if it can't dissipate the energy fast enough, it would overheat.

A simple way would be to send up a satellite filled with "bullets" in the orbit. At the opportune moment, the satellite will fire these bullets and they will place themselves in the paths of these satellites (no need to track and target the satellites, the satellites will fly towards the bullets as their paths are fixed), boom space debris and subsequent chain reaction.

[deleted]

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#63
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we are going to put that in the hands of Elon musk? Are you fucking kidding me?

Is there a viable alternative? SpaceX is the only launch provider and satellite operator that is progressing at a rapid pace and driving costs down.

Chinese companies seem to be in process of cloning Falcon 9 and even Starlink (Thousand Sails and other constellations).

In the west the Rocketlab Neutron partial RLV and planned Stokes Space full RLV stand out.

And maybe in a few decades even Arianespace will end up with a Falcon 9 class vehicle! ;-)

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#64
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with terrestrial wireless links is that you just aren't going to cover every inch of Earth's surface with terrestrial wireless links. At the same time: coverage comes cheap to Starlink. Which makes it perfect for serving areas no one wants to serve. Such as rural areas, anything outside the largest cities in underdeveloped countries, the open ocean, and so it goes.

Places only Starllink can reach are an insufficient and shrinking TAM. The only places a terrestrial wireless provider doesn't want to serve are places that can't afford FWA even though it costs less.

For Starlink, maybe. However, I'm sure nuclear submarines operating in the arctic (and the US Navy in general) as well as forward operating US bases, would love and be willing to pay for Starshield to cover everywhere.

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#65
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we are going to put that in the hands of Elon musk? Are you fucking kidding me?

Is there a viable alternative? SpaceX is the only launch provider and satellite operator that is progressing at a rapid pace and driving costs down.

No need for the satellite manufacturer to be the same as the launch provider, and there's nothing at all special about short-lived commodity satellites for LEO constellations. SpaceX is going to be cost-effective at building them given their experience with Starlink, but cost isn't typically a major concern of the US govt, and certainly not a higher priority than concerns about the satellite operator frequently suggesting that access to his satellites might be contigent upon his views on a particular conflict.

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#66
post #59

The mass of the starlink satellites has doubled twice since V1. It is not hard to assume that there is a significant DoD rideshare payload involved on the existing commercial satellites. Having a sensor platform on every single one would be incredible. The satellites that have been officially branded as Starshield (~183 we know of) could be part of cover or a more "kinetic" mission profile. If I was in charge at the…

It's an interesting theory, but I'm not sure it works. Do you design in these sensors and build in the normal starlink factory, where most people don't have security clearances? Or do you make thousands of people get security clearances, making it pretty obvious?

And as soon as any data from a specific sensor leaks, adversaries would likely be able to pinpoint what satellite produced it.

And then the contractual terms mandating commercial spaceflight vendors do this work.

It all gets really complicated, with many thousands of people who are not part of traditional intelligence services all having to keep a massive secret.

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#67
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Places only Starllink can reach are an insufficient and shrinking TAM. The only places a terrestrial wireless provider doesn't want to serve are places that can't afford FWA even though it costs less.

For Starlink, maybe. However, I'm sure nuclear submarines operating in the arctic (and the US Navy in general) as well as forward operating US bases, would love and be willing to pay for Starshield to cover everywhere.

Pretty sure they don't have any comms signals and wouldn't connect to that unless absolutely necessary emergent situation. I thought they operate in the dark.

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#68
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we are going to put that in the hands of Elon musk? Are you fucking kidding me?

You're more worried about that than having it in the hands of the US government?

How could you even think the opposite to be a better option?

The US does suffer from a serious amount of issues politically (I'm 100% convinced that presidential republics are flawed) but it's still an organization with plenty of checks requiring popular mandate.

No single private individual should ever hold this kind of influence imho, not even if it is Gandhi or a saint and Musk is quite the other end of the spectrum.

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does your laser pointer has a hard upper Watt limit? Consumer grade / privat buyable laser can easily be bought. And would i destroy a soda can by overheating it slowly and steadily because the can has no easy way of dissipating heat and has electronics in it which are not heat resistent?

A Starlink V2 Mini sat (what they're currently launching with Falcon 9) has a total solar panel area of about 10.5 * 2.5 *2 = 105 m^2. Solar irradiance in LEO is about 1350 W/m^2 when unobstructed. A space-grade solar panel reflects 5%-10% of that back as light, with the rest absorbed as either heat or electricity. This should give you an idea of what kind of thermal flux the satellite is designed to be dealing with.

Also you have to consider that even top-notch lasers have a divergence (out of memory, I may be wrong by an order of magnitude) of 10mrad or so, and you are physically limited to not much better than that, so you need pretty insane powers to damage, let alone destroy, a satellite at LEO altitude.

Re: A classified network of SpaceX satellites is emitting a mysterious signal

#70
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with terrestrial wireless links is that you just aren't going to cover every inch of Earth's surface with terrestrial wireless links. At the same time: coverage comes cheap to Starlink. Which makes it perfect for serving areas no one wants to serve. Such as rural areas, anything outside the largest cities in underdeveloped countries, the open ocean, and so it goes.

Places only Starllink can reach are an insufficient and shrinking TAM. The only places a terrestrial wireless provider doesn't want to serve are places that can't afford FWA even though it costs less.

Once you cross a certain threshold Starlink is superior to fiber optics. That's because it has the potential to be both lower latency and more direct than terrestrial fiber as the speed of light is faster in the vacuum of space.

At a certain scale you're going to have to make the argument that laying a 10,000KM glass fiber across the ocean for 10-20% more latency is a better value than beaming it around in LEO.

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