61–70 of 86 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
EVs and renewables might account for reduced oil price.
EVs appear (to this midwesterner) to be in the noise. Renewables though…
butchered quote: 99 buyers, 100 sellers: price goes down, 101 buyers, 100 sellers: price goes up.
Gold and silver hitting all time highs, stock market at insane levels. We have an asset bubble even though interest rates are high. Why is this?
Inflation is being priced in. Globally faith in the USD is being lost, and anyone paying attention knows one of Trump's main economic goals is to weaken the dollar. He also clearly wants to tamper with the fed and economic data, which just ads fuel to the fire. Meanwhile there isn't really a solid alternate to the dollar, so precious metals are default.
But I think that the answer is "pricing in". When there's a month of inflation after 15 years of none, you price in a one-month blip of inflation. When you look at a year or two of inflation, plus the deficit with no end in sight, you price in inflation forever. Those lead to two very different prices.
Gold and silver hitting all time highs, stock market at insane levels. We have an asset bubble even though interest rates are high. Why is this?
Price of hamburgers also at an all time high: https://pos.toasttab.com/blog/data/burger-prices Conclude from that what you will. Personally the cost to keep myself alive relative to the amount I'm making is more interesting than shiny metals.
And contrary to the typical gold bug narrative, it's not because central banks are conjuring new money out of thin air.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
In an inflationary economy like the one we have, "the market is at all time high" is not really a useful statement since it's the normal state of affairs.
Sure, but gold and many other assets are at a 50-year high even when adjusting for inflation: https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4534/inflation...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Losing faith in the value of the dollar in the face of our crazy fiscal position? The one thing that baffles me is energy prices. We haven't seen this oil/gold ratio since the pandemic, when demand for oil plummeted.
EVs and renewables might account for reduced oil price.
GDP is no longer tied to fuel consumption. You can't fight near-free "fuel" and near-zero opex, the renewables slice is only going to increase. I wouldn't trust any metric or rule of thumb tied to coal/oil/gas prices any longer.
It takes between 38 and 39 paper Reserve Notes to equal its value. If Trump isn't removed, I expect it to be 100:1 before the midterms.
To teach my daughters about investing when they were young, I gave them some actual silver coins that I purchased — thinking these are tangible things, they can track the price. Of course I bought at the peak. They're adults now but just might be seeing a profit on their coins. I suppose lesson learned?
There is a time to buy, a time to sell, stocks and gold go through clear cycles where one outperforms the other, currently stocks have been outperformed by gold for 25 years. My kids bought silver recently and are up 17% in about 2 months.
I carry a real United States Dollar, minted in New Orleans in 1901, as an example of hard currency, aka real assets. It takes between 38 and 39 paper Reserve Notes to equal its value. If Trump isn't removed, I expect it to be 100:1 before the midterms.
Have to imagine someone carrying around a real book of laws (maybe they have Leviticus, or the Code Napoleon, or they've got a nice re-chisel Hammurabi's tablets) - unlike the paper law of today
https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Media/2013/Hurriyet_May_2_2...
> In the era of Emperor Augustus (27 B.C. to 14 A.D.), a Roman centurion was paid 15,000 sestertii. Given that one gold aureus equaled 1,000 sestertii and given there was eight grams of gold in an aureus, the pay comes to 38.58 ounces of gold
Today, 38.58oz of gold would be a salary of $156K/yr.
If we do the same for silver, it comes out to about 470oz of silver. So $23,500/yr.
If we compare that to a US Army E-8 (say 80k/yr), we can argue that gold has doubled its value relative to labor and silver has dropped to almost a quarter.
I carry a real United States Dollar, minted in New Orleans in 1901, as an example of hard currency, aka real assets. It takes between 38 and 39 paper Reserve Notes to equal its value. If Trump isn't removed, I expect it to be 100:1 before the midterms.
Dalio explains the currency cycle, which starts with hard currency, goes through some various stages until there's pure fiat, and then goes back to hard currency.