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Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

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Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#61

Post by bilbo0s »

bigfudge wrote: post #57
bilbo0s wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. To understand why, you would really need to take a good read of the average PCP's malpractice policy. The policy for a specialist would be even more strict. You would need to change insurance policies before your workflow was even possible from a liability perspective. Basically, the insurer wants, "a throat to choke", so to speak. Handing up a model to them isn't going to cut it anymore than handing up Hitachi…

Doesnt this become the developer? Or perhaps a specialist insurer who develops expertise and experience to indemnify them?

Oh that could indeed happen in that hypothetical timeline. But in that timeline the developer would be paying the malpractice premium.

And it would be the developer's throat that gets choked when something goes awry.

I'm betting developers will want to take on neither the cost of insurance, nor the increased risk of liability.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#62

Post by tnel77 »

bilbo0s wrote: post #41
addcommitpush wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they had absolute perfect performance at zero cost, you would not need a radiologist. The current "workflow" is primary care physician (or specialist) -> radiology tech that actually does the measurement thing -> radiologist for interpretation/diagnosis -> primary care physician (or specialist) for treatment. If you have perfect diagnosis, it could be primary care physician (or specialist) -> radiology tech -> ML…

Nope. To understand why, you would really need to take a good read of the average PCP's malpractice policy. The policy for a specialist would be even more strict. You would need to change insurance policies before your workflow was even possible from a liability perspective. Basically, the insurer wants, "a throat to choke", so to speak. Handing up a model to them isn't going to cut it anymore than handing up Hitachi…

They didn’t say there wouldn’t need to be change related to insurance. They obviously mean that, change included, a perfect model would move to their described workflow (or something similar).

HackerNews is often too quick to reply with a “well actually” that they miss the overall point.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#63

Post by nenenejej »

padjo wrote: post #28
lnenad wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's assume the last person that entered their radiologist training started then and the training lasts 5 years. At the end of their training the year is 2021 and they are around 31. So that means they will practice medicine for cca 30 years which would put the calendar at around 2051. I'd wager in 25 years we'd get there so I think his opinion still has a large percentage of being correct.

So all the current radiologists are going to live until 2051?

Even Marie Curie would have.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#64

Post by luma »

roncesvalles wrote: post #48
djoldman wrote: post #10

> Three things explain this. First,... Second, attempts to give models more tasks have run into legal hurdles: regulators and medical insurers so far are reluctant to approve or cover fully autonomous radiology models. Third, even when they do diagnose accurately, models replace only a small share of a radiologist’s job. Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activi…

I only came to this thread to say that this is completely untrue: >Human radiologists spend a minority of their time on diagnostics and the majority on other activities, like talking to patients and fellow clinicians. The vast majority of radiologists do nothing other than: come in (or increasingly, stay at home), sit down at a computer, consume a series of medical images while dictating their findings, and then go h…

Agreed, I'm not sure where the OP from TFA is working but around here, radiologists have all been bought out and rolled into Radiology As A Service organizations. They work from home or at an office, never at a clinic, and have zero interactions with the patient. They perform diagnosis on whatever modality is presented and electronically file their work into their EMR. I work with a couple such orgs on remote access and am familiar with others, it might just be a selection bias on my side but TFA does not reflect my first-hand experience in this area.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#66

Post by lm28469 »

palmotea wrote: post #2

What we need is a mandate for AI transformation of Radiology: Radiologists must be required to use AI every day on X% of scans, their productivity must double with the use of AI or they'll get fired, etc. To quote CEOs everywhere: AI is a transformative technology unlike any we've ever seen in our careers, and we must embrace it in a desperate FOMO way, anything else is unacceptable.

I can't even tell if it's sarcasm anymore

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#67

Post by GoatInGrey »

kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

The universe has a way with being disappointing. This isn't to say that life is terrible and we should have no optimism. Rather, that things generally work out for the better, but usually not in the way we'd prefer them to.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#68

Post by goatlover »

kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

It's also like nobody learns from the previous hype cycles. Short term overly optimistic predications followed by disillusionment and then long term benefits which deliver on some of the early promises.

For some reason, enthusiasts always think this time is different.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#69

Post by innanet-worker »

kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

well part of the reason why you may have felt mislead by that video is because it was staged so i wouldn't feel that bad.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tesla-video-promoting-sel...

for me i have been riding in waymos the last year and have been very pleased with the results. i think we WANT this technology to move faster but the some of the challenges at the edges take a lot of time and resources to solve, but not fundamentally unsolvable.

Re: Demand for human radiologists is at an all-time high

#70

Post by christianqchung »

kklisura wrote: post #54

When Tesla demoed (via video) self-driving in 2016 with a claim "The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself" and then when they unveiled Semi in 2017 - I tweeted out and honestly thought that trucking industry is changed forever and it doesn't make sense to be starting in trucking industry. It's almost end of 2025 and either nothing out of it o…

Look at Waymo, not Robotaxi. Waymo is essentially the self driving vision I had as a kid, and ridership is growing exponentially as they expand. It's also very safe if you believe their statistics[0]. I think there's a saying about overestimating stuff in the short term and underestimating stuff in the long term that seems to apply here, though the radiologist narrative was definitely wrong.

[0] https://waymo.com/safety/impact/

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