Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Abundant Intelligence

blog.samaltman.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 136 posts

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#61

Post by remus »

drooby wrote: post #46
mcpar-land wrote: post #28

> As AI gets smarter, access to AI will be a fundamental driver of the economy, and maybe eventually something we consider a fundamental human right. My product is going to be the fundamental driver of the economy. Even a human right! > Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer. How? > We are particularly excited to build a lot of this in the US; right now, other countries are building…

No offense but your comment is basically HN parody. OpenAI created AI tech decades ahead of estimates. And they just signed a 100B deal with Nvidea. They are actually doing the things that are astonishing. Every engineer I see in coffee shops uses AI. All my coworkers use AI. I use AI. AI nearly solved protein folding. It is beginning to unlock personalized medicine. AI absolutely will be a fundamental driver of the…

I don't think there's any criticism of the (remarkable) things which have been achieved so far, more the breathless hype about how AI is going to solve all our current and future problems if we just keep shovelling money and energy in. Predicting the future is hard, and I don't think Sam is particularly better at knowing what's going to happen in ten years time than anyone else.

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#62

Post by bilbo0s »

esafak wrote: post #24
paulglx wrote: post #19

AI will become "something we consider a fundamental human right", according to the guy that wants to sell you access to it

So it's going to be regulated like a utility?

He'll have no problem with that.

You can get your drinking water from a utility, or you can get bottled water. Guess which one he's gonna be selling?

And if you think for a second that the "utility" models will be trained on data as pristine as the data that the "bottled" models will be trained on, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. (The "utility" models will not even have any access to all of the "secret sauce" currently being hoarded inside these labs.)

Essentially we can all expect to go back to the Lexis-Google type dichotomy. You can go into court on Google searches, nothing's stopping you. But nearly everyone will pay for LexisNexis because they're not idiots and they actually want to compete.

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#63

Post by Avshalom »

tlb wrote: post #47
Avshalom wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fundamental driver of the economy is people eating and clothing themselves, not writing memos that are never read.

Food is 13% of US consumer spending, and clothing is 2.7%. Both have declined steadily since the industrial revolution.

I assure that people being alive is going to be the fundamental driver of the economy no matter what percent of consumer spending it is.

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#65

Post by bilbo0s »

beeflet wrote: post #49
keiferski wrote: post #44

What's the serious counter-argument to the idea that a) AI will become more ubiquitous and inexpensive and b) economic/geopolitical success will be tied in some way to AI ability? Because I do agree with him on that front. The question is whether the AI industry will end up like airplanes: massively useful technology that somehow isn't a great business to be in. If indeed that is the case, framing OpenAI as a nation-…

Maybe AI will become more ubiquitous. But I predict LLMs will be capped by the amount of training data present in the wild.

I'm more worried that publicly available LLMs "will be capped by the amount of training data present in the wild". But private LLMs, available only to the wealthy and powerful, will have additional, more pristine and accurate, data sources made available to them for training.

Think about the legal field. The masses tend to use Google, whereas the wealthy and powerful all use LexisNexis. Who do you think has been winning in court?

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#67

Post by toddmorey »

mcpar-land wrote: post #28

> As AI gets smarter, access to AI will be a fundamental driver of the economy, and maybe eventually something we consider a fundamental human right. My product is going to be the fundamental driver of the economy. Even a human right! > Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer. How? > We are particularly excited to build a lot of this in the US; right now, other countries are building…

Not a word or whisper about environmental impact, either. I mean at least do some hand waving or something. I feel like a habitable planet is a fundamental right.

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#68

Post by mietek »

bilbo0s wrote: post #62
esafak wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So it's going to be regulated like a utility?

He'll have no problem with that. You can get your drinking water from a utility, or you can get bottled water. Guess which one he's gonna be selling? And if you think for a second that the "utility" models will be trained on data as pristine as the data that the "bottled" models will be trained on, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. (The "utility" models will not even have any access to all of the "secret sau…

Great analogy! Look up Dasani some time.

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#69

Post by vrighter »

"Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer. Or with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to provide customized tutoring to every student on earth."

what's in between this line and the next:

"or it might not. Now give me moar money!!!!!"

Re: Abundant Intelligence

#70

Post by listic »

toddmorey wrote: post #67
mcpar-land wrote: post #28

> As AI gets smarter, access to AI will be a fundamental driver of the economy, and maybe eventually something we consider a fundamental human right. My product is going to be the fundamental driver of the economy. Even a human right! > Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer. How? > We are particularly excited to build a lot of this in the US; right now, other countries are building…

Not a word or whisper about environmental impact, either. I mean at least do some hand waving or something. I feel like a habitable planet is a fundamental right.

Not to defend what Altman is saying, but is OpenAI actually using or going to use that much power? This Reuters source the US power budget will be 4,187 TWh in 2025: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-use-reach-r...
Post reply on HN