Will AI be the basis of many future industrial fortunes, or a net loser?

-AI is leading to cost optimizations for running existing companies, this will lead to less employment and potentially cheaper products. Less people employed temporary will change demand side economics, cheaper operating costs will reduce supply/cost side

-The focus should not just be on LLM's (like in the article). I think LLMs have shown what artificial neural networks are capable of, from material discovery, biological simulation, protein discovery, video generation, image generation, etc. This isn't just creating a cheaper, more efficient way of shipping goods around the world, its creating new classifications of products like the microcontroller invention did.

-The barrier to start businesses is less. A programmer not good at making art can use genAI to make a game. More temporary unemployment from existing companies reducing cost by automating existing work flows may mean that more people will start their own businesses. There will be more diverse products available but will demand be able to sustain the cost of living of these new founders? Human attention, time etc is limited and their may be less money around with less employment but the products themselves should cost cheaper.

-I think people still underestimate what last year/s LLMs and AI models are capable of and what opportunities they open up, Open source models (even if not as good as the latest gen), hardware able to run these open source models becoming cheaper and more capable means many opportunities to tinker with models to create new products in new categories independent of being reliant on the latest gen model providers. Much like people tinkering with microcontrollers in the garage in the early days as the article mentioned.

Based on the points above alone while certain industries (think phone call centers) will be in the red queen race scenario like the OP stated there will new industries unthought of open up creating new wealth for many people.

For transparency I just ask for a bright green or blue background then use GIMP.

For animations I get one frame I like and then ask for it to generate a walking cycle or whatnot. But usually I go for like… 3 frame cycles or 2 frame attacks and such. Because I’m not over reaching, hoping to make some salable end product. Just prototypes and toys, really.

The model did its thing but there was still an aspect of interpretation that was needed to convert data to a story for a few minutes on TV.

For longer range forecasting the task was quite easy for the meteorologists, at least for the UK. Storm systems could be tracked from Africa across the Atlantic to North America and back across the Atlantic to the UK. Hence, with some well known phenomena such as that, my meteorologist friends would have a good general idea of what to expect with no model needed, just an understanding of the observations, obsessively followed, with all the enthusiasm of someone that bets on horses.

My forecasting friends could tell me what to expect weeks out, however, the exact time the rain would fall or even what day would not be a certain bet, but they were rarely wrong about the overall picture.

The atmosphere is far from a closed system, there only has to be one volcano fart somewhere on the planet to throw things out of whack and that is not something that is easy to predict. Predicting how the hard to predict volcano or solar flare affects the weather in a few weeks is beyond what I expect from AI.

I am still waiting for e-commerce platforms to be replaced with Blockchain dapps, and I will add AGI weather forecasting to the queue of not going to happen. Imagine if it hallucinates.

Will AI put bookmakers out of business? Nope. Same goes with weather.

Having the cutting edge best model won't matter either since 99.9% of people aren't trying to solve new math problems, they are just generating adverts and talking to virtual girlfriends.