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CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

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Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#61

Post by throw0101d »

jeffbee wrote: post #12

Federal outlays +8%. DOGE was a scam and you all fell for it.

> DOGE was a scam and you all fell for it.

Who is this "you" that you talk about?

There were many folks talking about all the 'saving money' was just a veneer; a sampling:

* http://archive.is/https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archi...

* https://www.epi.org/blog/doge-is-not-worth-engaging-you-cant...

* https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/doge-isn-t-about-money-...

Even the libertarian Cato Institute:

* https://www.cato.org/blog/six-ways-understand-doge-predict-i...

The hypothesis of an 'ideological purge' was fairly common.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#62

Post by notmyjob »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #49
Aurornis wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at the actual deportation numbers. It’s barely on track to meet deportation rates from a decade ago. Don’t believe the political rhetoric. They’re making a big show and behaving poorly with the masks and other abuses, but they’re not actually doing abnormally high deportations. Note that any large country will have a steady flow of deportations due to basic enforcement of immigration laws.

The goal for them is to scare immigrants out of the country, make a spectacle of deporting 10 and hope another 20 get scared and self-deport, and another 100 decide not to try and illegally enter.

How is that working out so far?

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#63

Post by [deleted] »

9rx wrote: post #28
shoo wrote: post #7

I've heard a few economists interviewed about the estimated impact of tariffs, an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers, but as a one-time price increase, not a sustained level of price inflation. That said, it's curious that this CPI news release highlighted "shelter" as a driver: > The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly i…

> an argument is that tariffs should lead to higher prices for US consumers At the same time, though, prices can never rise higher than the consumer is willing to pay. All else equal that ultimately needs to be true, but there are many variables that do not need to remain equal, so it is not a foregone conclusion. The 2022 food crisis offered pretty good motivation for consumers to pay more — people were truly worrie…

[deleted]

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#64

Post by sawjet »

notmyjob wrote: post #62
Workaccount2 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The goal for them is to scare immigrants out of the country, make a spectacle of deporting 10 and hope another 20 get scared and self-deport, and another 100 decide not to try and illegally enter.

How is that working out so far?

Looking at the border numbers, very successfully

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#65

Post by baby-yoda »

bix6 wrote: post #57
baby-yoda wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

90% expected probability of a cut at the moment, down from 96% a week ago. A surprise no-cut would send a shock to the market IMO. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

That’s 100% is it not? There’s 0% for current and then a split between the two potential cut amounts.

You're right - I'm so used to looking at the probabilities waterfall diagram where there's always some percent for status quo I glanced right over it not being there.

In the time since I originally posted that the 400-425 basis point level has dipped another 2%, with that amount going towards a 50 basis point cut. Very muddy waters indeed.

Powell has been adamant about fighting inflation so I struggle to understand how the market gives a zero percent chance of status quo.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#66

Post by bitshiftfaced »

m101 wrote: post #32

12*0.4% is 4.8% Inflation is running at an annualised 4.8%. The 2.9% number is backward looking. Sure monthly inflation is more volatile, but the direction of travel is up, and that running average of 2.9% will be increasing slowly as it incorporates the recent higher prints. Edit: the seasonally adjusted change is 0.4% actually, with the monthly change 0.3%

This MoM increase was higher than about 70% of previous changes on the same interval. It's not so extreme that we can reasonably infer from it a looming disaster. Looking at the 7 month change (year to date), 63% of the time you'd see a higher increase than this. The "direction of travel is up", but that's almost always the case.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#67

Post by ksec »

seneca wrote: post #42
bix6 wrote: post #2

100% odds the Fed cuts but inflation seems entrenched. Will the cut really help pull the labor market up? Tourism is down, AI is up, etc.

Polymarket puts a cut at 98% likely currently: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september?tid=1...

Wow. Let me buy no Change.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#69

Post by bix6 »

baby-yoda wrote: post #65
bix6 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s 100% is it not? There’s 0% for current and then a split between the two potential cut amounts.

You're right - I'm so used to looking at the probabilities waterfall diagram where there's always some percent for status quo I glanced right over it not being there. In the time since I originally posted that the 400-425 basis point level has dipped another 2%, with that amount going towards a 50 basis point cut. Very muddy waters indeed. Powell has been adamant about fighting inflation so I struggle to understand h…

It got me initially as well!

I’m with you on Powell but I feel like he’s tired of fighting Trump so he’ll throw a cut just to get everyone off his back a bit.

Re: CPI for all items rises 0.4% in August, 2.9% YoY; shelter and food up

#70

Post by Workaccount2 »

Interestingly treasury yields are down on this news, whereas on paper you would expect the opposite. Equities are up, on paper you would expect a toss-up (lower rate cut pushing down, inflation pushing up). Gold is down slightly.

All this suggests these numbers, while being inflationary, are better then anticipated.

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