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The Last Programmers?

xipu.li

61–70 of 95 posts

Re: The Last Programmers?

#61
post #43

> We're the last generation of people who translate ideas into code by hand. Our children will describe what they want and watch it appear on screen, the same way we describe what we want to search engines and watch results appear. Describing what you want is programming! Code is great for that because it is more precise and less ambiguous than natural languages. The part about search engines is missing a key element…

[dead]

Re: The Last Programmers?

#62
> The bar for "good enough" code keeps dropping

This is one of the main reasons I got out, and AI is just making it worse by using ambiguous language to describe a solution.

Unlike the free market, I have no interest in contributing to the vast pile of shit software that already exists.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#63
post #3

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years." HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost work…

I tend to agree. Unless there is some kind of major breakthrough, I see a heavy asymptotic curve in generative AI code quality

Contrasted to the exponential curve of power consumption...

Re: The Last Programmers?

#64
post #4
post #3

FTA: "But with billions of dollars pouring into generative AI every year, we will see instant voice-to-code capabilities + bug-free quality in 2-5 years." HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA omg, thanks for the laugh - "bug-free quality in 2-5 years" pfffffft I'm not holding my breath - rather, I think that by then, the hype will have finally lost some steam as companies crash and burn with their shitty, "almost work…

I'm in the same camp as you where I don't think the hype is justified, but when it comes to the medium and long term adoption I can easily see LLMs getting good enough so that programmers will be more like plumbers than system designers and maintainers. At the very least it's going to be hard to justify big teams. I do wonder if tech is ready for more competition then because starving is a hell of a motivator.

Why would a big AI-assisted team be hard to justify?

Re: The Last Programmers?

#65
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s an ancient lesson that has to be relearned over and over. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Woodcutter_and_the_Trees

Thanks for the rabbit hole, the Perry Index is my new thing for the next few months I guess

The ATU index is also worth looking into:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aarne%E2%80%93Thompson%E2%80%9...

Re: The Last Programmers?

#66
post #57
post #13

We're doomed, when even supposed experts, working on these "AI" tools can't help but anthropomorphize those tools. "when edge cases emerge that the AI didn't anticipate" The only "anticipation" that is happening within those tools is on token level, the tools have no idea (and are fundamentally unable to even have an idea) what the code is even supposed to do in the real world.

So if you query the model to implement a function and it handles a case YOU didn't anticipate, what actually happened there? What word would you use?

I'd call that probabilistic emergence.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#68
post #62

> The bar for "good enough" code keeps dropping This is one of the main reasons I got out, and AI is just making it worse by using ambiguous language to describe a solution. Unlike the free market, I have no interest in contributing to the vast pile of shit software that already exists.

Vast piles of shit destroying jobs of ordinary people and their own jobs to make billionaires richer. Idiocracy and Elysium are both unintentional documentaries.

Re: The Last Programmers?

#69

> What really struck me was how Amazon's product decisions were driven by internal KPIs rather than user empathy. First day on the job or what?

Looking a little deeper, the author's written a scattering of blog posts in the past 3 years, and has spent seemingly little more time as a professional software developer versus finance/business. Not jaded enough yet for senior

Re: The Last Programmers?

#70
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I tend to agree. Unless there is some kind of major breakthrough, I see a heavy asymptotic curve in generative AI code quality

Contrasted to the exponential curve of power consumption...

Building tons of deca/gigawatt datacenters without a specific monetization plan or need. It still seems like a very temporary bubble most likely to lead to a collapse leaving pollution, waste, land, and community destruction in its wake. If it were to be successful, then ~95% of a previously high-income people (~100M professionals) will be unemployed and/or lose earnings. There is no net positive outcome except for {tr,b}illionaires possibly getting richer.
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