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AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

economist.com

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Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#61
post #4

Okay, so AI isn’t exceptional, but I’m also not exceptional. I run on the same tech base as any old chimpanzee, but at one point our differences in degree turned into one of us remaining “normal” and the other burning the entire planet. Whether the particular current AI tech is it or not, I have yet to be convinced that the singularity is practically impossible, and as long as things develop in the opposite direction…

[deleted]

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#62
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more that "thinking" is a vague term that we don't even understand in humans, so for me it's pretty meaningless to claim LLMs think or don't think. There's this very cliched comment to any AI HN headline which is this: "LLM's don't REALLY have . I know this for sure because I know both how humans work and how gigabytes of LLM weights work." or its cousin: "LLMs CAN'T possibly do BECAUSE they generate text one ch…

To me, it's about motivation. Intelligent living beings have natural, evolutionary inputs as motivation underlying every rational thought. A biological reward system in the brain, a desire to avoid pain, hunger, boredom and sadness, seek to satisfy physiological needs, socialize, self-actualize, etc. These are the fundamental forces that drive us, even if the rational processes are capable of suppressing or delaying…

Are any of those required for thinking?

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#63
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recently saw an article about LLMs and Towers of Hanoi. An LLM can write code to solve it. It can also output steps to solve it when the disk count is low like 3. It can’t give the steps when the disk count is higher. This indicates LLMs inability to reason and understand. Also see Gotham Chess and the Chatbot Championship. The Chatbots start off making good moves, but then quickly transition to making illegal move…

Could the LLM "write code to solve it" if no human ever wrote code to solve it? Could it output "steps to solve it" if no human ever wrote about it before to have in its training data? The answer is no.

Could a human code the solution if they didn't learn to code from someone else? No. Could they do it if someone didn't tell them the rules of towers of hanoi? No.

That doesn't mean much.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#64

Well, for starters, it would make The Economist 's recent article on "What if AI made the world's economic growth explode?" [1] look like the product of overly credulous suckers for AI hype. [1] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/07/24/what-if-ai-mad...

Why would you expect opinion pieces from different people to agree with one another?

I’m curious about exploring the topics “What if the war in Ukraine ends in the next 12 months” just as much as “What if the war in Ukraine keeps going for the next 10 years”, doesn’t mean I expect both to happen.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#65
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[citation needed] People constantly assert that LLMs don't think in some magic way that humans do think, when we don't even have any idea how that works.

When I write a sentence, I do it with intent, with specific purpose in mind . When an "AI" does it, it's predicting the next word that might satisfy the input requirement. It doesn't care if the sentence it writes makes any sense, is factual, etc, so long as it is human readable and follows gramatic rules. It does not do this with any specific intent, which is why you get slop and just plain wrong output a fair amoun…

Actually LLMs crunch through half a terabyte of weights before they "speak". How are you so confident that nothing happens in that immense amount of processing that has anything to do with thinking? Modern LLMs are also trained to have an inner dialogue before they output an answer to the user.

When you type the next word you also put a word that fits some requirement. That doesn't mean you're not thinking.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#67
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could the LLM "write code to solve it" if no human ever wrote code to solve it? Could it output "steps to solve it" if no human ever wrote about it before to have in its training data? The answer is no.

Could a human code the solution if they didn't learn to code from someone else? No. Could they do it if someone didn't tell them the rules of towers of hanoi? No. That doesn't mean much.

It does since humans where able to invent a programming language.

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#68

Well, for starters, it would make The Economist 's recent article on "What if AI made the world's economic growth explode?" [1] look like the product of overly credulous suckers for AI hype. [1] https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/07/24/what-if-ai-mad...

This comment reminds me of the forever present HN comments that take a form like "HN is so hypocritical. In this thread commenters are saying they love X, when just last week in a thready about Y, commenters were saying that they hated X."

Re: AI might yet follow the path of previous technological revolutions

#69
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could the LLM "write code to solve it" if no human ever wrote code to solve it? Could it output "steps to solve it" if no human ever wrote about it before to have in its training data? The answer is no.

Could a human code the solution if they didn't learn to code from someone else? No. Could they do it if someone didn't tell them the rules of towers of hanoi? No. That doesn't mean much.

A human can learn and understand the rules, an LLM never could. LLMs have famously been incapable of beating humans in chess, a seemingly simple thing to learn, because LLMs can't learn - they just predict the next word and that isn't helpful in solving actual problems, or playing simple games.
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