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Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#61

Post by Gud »

pfdietz wrote: post #54
octaane wrote: post #6

I cannot overemphasize how epochal of a crisis this would be for human civilization - the gulf stream is pretty much the only thing keeping northern europe (The UK, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, parts of germany, the Netherlands, etc) habitable by current standards. Basically, the gulf stream is a conveyor belt that grabs nice warm water from southern latitudes (carribean, southeast atlantic oce…

"The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth." https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-euro...

Interesting!

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#62

Post by hagbard_c »

neffy wrote: post #44
roadside_picnic wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AMOC collapsing (I have no idea why the title says 'Gulf Stream' as that is different and not mentioned in the post), has far more disastrous implications than destroying the climate of Europe. It's the beginning of the process of ocean de-oxygenation, ultimately creating a lifeless ocean that emits hydrogen sulfide instead of oxygen. It would completely disrupt the planetary food change, make the ocean poisonous…

Ok, but this happens pretty regularly on a planetary scale (at least every 110,000 years or so) - why hasn´t it been so disastrous before - say at the end of the last interglacial?

There were fewer humans around last time. Also there were no 'journalists' around to proclaim it so. If a tree falls in the forest and there is nobody around to hear it, does it make a sound?

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#63

Post by jaybrendansmith »

nemo44x wrote: post #60
pklausler wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know that?

All this nonsense is the same as the guys who have predicted 80 of the last 2 recessions. But hey, if you can exaggerate the output your model suggests that was built from faulty assumptions, incomplete data, hubris, and spans decades in time and get people to buy it and continue to fund your project, good for you.

You can put your head in the sand, but it will not save you. You must take the world on from first principles, and dive deep into the details if you want truth. Simply countering that nobody can predict what will happen is not an argument, it's a plea to stay ignorant.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#64

Post by pklausler »

nemo44x wrote: post #60
pklausler wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know that?

All this nonsense is the same as the guys who have predicted 80 of the last 2 recessions. But hey, if you can exaggerate the output your model suggests that was built from faulty assumptions, incomplete data, hubris, and spans decades in time and get people to buy it and continue to fund your project, good for you.

How do you know that climate scientists are as unreliable as some economists?

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#65

Post by nemo44x »

pklausler wrote: post #64
nemo44x wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this nonsense is the same as the guys who have predicted 80 of the last 2 recessions. But hey, if you can exaggerate the output your model suggests that was built from faulty assumptions, incomplete data, hubris, and spans decades in time and get people to buy it and continue to fund your project, good for you.

How do you know that climate scientists are as unreliable as some economists?

They’re probably more unreliable as climate is far more complex than economics and predicting 50 years out with any certainty is a ridiculous notion for both.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#66

Post by nemo44x »

jaybrendansmith wrote: post #63
nemo44x wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All this nonsense is the same as the guys who have predicted 80 of the last 2 recessions. But hey, if you can exaggerate the output your model suggests that was built from faulty assumptions, incomplete data, hubris, and spans decades in time and get people to buy it and continue to fund your project, good for you.

You can put your head in the sand, but it will not save you. You must take the world on from first principles, and dive deep into the details if you want truth. Simply countering that nobody can predict what will happen is not an argument, it's a plea to stay ignorant.

Open your mind until your brain falls out. How many bromides should we exchange? Saying “there’s no proof” is better than believing everything that comes your way with 0 critical analysis. But it’s nice to feel smart.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#67

Post by timr »

rcxdude wrote: post #57
timr wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re putting words in my mouth. I believe that clearly stating the quality of the evidence is what distinguishes science from hysteria. We do no favors to the cause of science by exaggerating. The contention that our models systematically underestimate reality is incorrect, and defies logic: if it were true that we were systematically failing in one direction, we’d make the models bias in the other direction.

>The contention that our models systematically underestimate reality is incorrect, and defies logic: if it were true that we were systematically failing in one direction, we’d make the models bias in the other direction. It's possible for such biases to persist for a long time: In general, older climate models tended to overestimate the amount of CO2 that would be emitted but underestimate the effects it would have.…

> It's possible for such biases to persist for a long time: In general, older climate models tended to overestimate the amount of CO2 that would be emitted but underestimate the effects it would have.

I didn't want to get into this because it clouds the topic at hand and makes it sounds like I'm debating the quality of the models, but you're just objectively wrong -- it's well-known that some of the major climate models have "run hot":

https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-...

In addition, every publication (including this one) that use modeling results show a wide dispersion around the mean.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#68

Post by jaybrendansmith »

nemo44x wrote: post #66
jaybrendansmith wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can put your head in the sand, but it will not save you. You must take the world on from first principles, and dive deep into the details if you want truth. Simply countering that nobody can predict what will happen is not an argument, it's a plea to stay ignorant.

Open your mind until your brain falls out. How many bromides should we exchange? Saying “there’s no proof” is better than believing everything that comes your way with 0 critical analysis. But it’s nice to feel smart.

Jesus, what does that even mean? Simple physics says carbon dioxide traps heat. Chemistry 10th grade. Did you take it? This is not hard. Only an absolute ignoramus would pretend it's not happening at this point.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#69

Post by karmakurtisaani »

jaybrendansmith wrote: post #68
nemo44x wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Open your mind until your brain falls out. How many bromides should we exchange? Saying “there’s no proof” is better than believing everything that comes your way with 0 critical analysis. But it’s nice to feel smart.

Jesus, what does that even mean? Simple physics says carbon dioxide traps heat. Chemistry 10th grade. Did you take it? This is not hard. Only an absolute ignoramus would pretend it's not happening at this point.

No worried, HN has plenty of cranks who don't have real arguments or references to actual studies. I suppose it's just comforting to pretend it's business as usual.

Re: Tipping point in Gulf Stream may be reached as early as mid-century

#70

Post by justlikereddit »

baq wrote: post #56
tdb7893 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've already seen sea level rises make some islands unliveable, pretty large ecological damage, and many people dead from natural disasters from climate change and we are still in early stages of it (levels of greenhouse gases in the environment are still still not only rising but also accelerating in the wrong direction). You would need to be incredibly selective to the point of absurdity to say predictions have 10…

Yeah dude hasn’t had an issue where he lives so he claims it’s all lies. When time comes for his neighborhood he’ll cry wolf for not being warned early enough.

In your fantasy world both poles are ice free, snow is non existent in Britain and the Gulf Stream already stopped working 5 times, all of that before 2020.

That's the official and much hyped past predictions, but this time it's different? Who's really the one crying wolf here?

Maybe you boomer-brained types would get scammed a little bit less often if you tried thinking just a little bit for yourself instead of uncritically swallowing the pre-chewed fecal mass that media spits into your mouth on a daily basis.

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