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AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

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Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's one survey, but the literature is plastered with it https://www.gradeinflation.com/

That doesn't mention computer science. English departments giving away A's to attract students don't trash the job market for recent CS grads.

Your theory that universities broadly started inflating grades, but miraculously excepted computer science is pretty damn bold one that you've made baselessly.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#62
post #25

One crazy stat -- In 2024, 21% of all bachelor's degrees awarded were Computer Science from University of Maryland College Park. It was 3% in 2011. I don't agree with the article that AI is wrecking job prospects. I see it is as companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP. Nonetheless, it's gotta be tough out there for new grads. https://www.usmd.edu/IRIS…

I believe you mean 21% of University of Maryland’s bachelor degreees were CS.

The current phrasing makes it sound like they’re a diploma mill producing 21% of all bachelor degrees in the country.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#63

Job prospects down, immigration up. Someone make it make sense.

> immigration up "In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s" [1]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi.…

[deleted]

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given a long enough timeframe, I think you're right. But I don't think that's a 'near future' state, but probably a 'in a few decades' state. More generally, I believe that eventually we'll reach a 'post-work society' ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-work_society ). And that'll be interesting for humanity, as we derive at least some identity from the work we're doing.

Man, I wish I had your optimism. I can see us entering "post-work", but that's only because those who own the means of production no longer require us, and our resulting crises will be much lower on Maslow's Heirarchy of Needs.

Production for whom, though? At least any growth paradigm immediately dies without a mass of consumers. Billionaires can only consume so much.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#65

Job prospects down, immigration up. Someone make it make sense.

> immigration up "In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s" [1]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi.…

Foreign born went from 4.7% of the population, to an modern high of 15.8% and has slightly backed off to 15.4% in the last year. So we are within .4 of the high point.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#66

This will be very interesting. So far in the Industrial Revolution, automating away jobs has been how we've getting richer and richer for centuries. If AI automates away half of all jobs, and this holds we will - after an adjustment period - double GDP and collectively be twice as wealthy! If that actually happens, it solves many currently "unsolvable" societal problems. I'm pretty sure that it does, but the adjustme…

The industrial revolution provided jobs before it took them away. The tractors that took jobs from farmhands had to be built in factories with millions of people.

I think AI is going to end up more like the late 20th century automation push. It's going to hollow out whole communities.

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> immigration up "In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s" [1]. [1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi.…

So now it's only 52 million? Thank goodness, problem solved!

> now it's only 52 million?

You're moving the goalposts. There is no paradox--the job market is down and so is immigration.

[1] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/08/21/key-findi...

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#68
post #12

How many people are just assuming the study is true or false based on what you already think is the case? Better instead to use our collective brain power for something more productive. Such as digging into the various possible causal factors and understanding if the paper properly addresses and disentangles them.

IRC section 174 was recently reversed. Its original removal was one of the big reasons for the layoffs in tech along with ZIRP ending.

Previously discussed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44226145

Re: AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Prospects

#69

This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. When other tech companies realize GenAI will never produce what they want, there will be a rush to re-hire developers. Top talent all started as junior talent. Grab that pool so nobody else will have it.

The issue with hiring many juniors is, when there is another dev boom, all the juniors that were hired, now mids or seniors, are going to jump ship to whoever is going to pay them the most. So, the company can either grow talent and then pay them market rate or hire at market rates from other companies that grew them. Hiring juniors, while good for the industry in the long run, doesn't really benefit an individual company. It is game theory and it is still why senior developers make a lot of money despite there being an oversupply of juniors.
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