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A bubble that knows it's a bubble

craigmccaskill.com

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Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#61

Post by throwawayqqq11 »

fhd2 wrote: post #37
xg15 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible. If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

Much like wheelchairs vs exo skeletons, the simpler (and cheaper) tech tends to win. I'd imagine in a future where robots are everywhere, they'll use whatever cheap locomotion is appropriate for their tasks, probably predominantly wheels. It's a fun vision to imagine bipedal robots everywhere like in old sci movies, but I'm not convinced that's how it'll play out, the economics don't make that much sense. Bipedal rob…

Cost will be the reason why these over engineered robots fail. Cost is the reason why indoor vertical farms fail, even though in their case, the environment is controlled and the tech is relatively simple compared to omnipotent field robots.

The most viable use case of AI is bullshiting humans, which is still a multi-billion market. Infrastructure hooray!

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#62

Post by Ekaros »

jamilton wrote: post #57
layoric wrote: post #32

> Creative destruction is brutal math. The capital? Gone. Completely vaporized. But infrastructure isn’t stock certificates. Those fiber optic cables didn’t vanish when Pets.com did. I read quotes like this and reminded that it is common that people forget money is just a competitive resource we use to outbid each other for _real_ things. Money moves around, it isn't lost or "Completely vaporized", someone receives i…

A stock price decreasing essentially "vaporizes" the wealth of owners, that is not a straightforward transfer. Stocks aren't cash.

What I find so weird always is that well value "vaporized" when prices went down. But what is the term when prices went up? As surely that wealth also respectively came from same place it went when it went down...

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#63

Post by ehnto »

lm28469 wrote: post #51
ehnto wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the allure of humanoid robots is that they are drop in replacements for agents in a world desgined for humans. If you want your robot to be a helper around the general populations houses for example, you would aim to make a general purpose bot capable of stairs, ladders, lying down, reaching high, stepping over things, holding awkward weights and loads while doing all of the above. Pinch, twist, push, pull, i…

I love how most people can't even afford a car without taking loans but we're talking about personal robot assistants as if it was right around the corner and the natural evolution of things

With the wealth gap increasing ever further, I think we will see technology in lock step with that divide.

I doubt robots will actually end up in every household, but a niche luxury product and utility for businesses makes some sense. Even if you think about it from that perspective, robot makers would still want them to be a universal robot not dozens of unique use case bots.

If a business can pay 30k for a general purpose extra set of hands I think that would be a no brainer, and I think the wealthy would see it similarly.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#64

Post by ehnto »

xg15 wrote: post #24
ehnto wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the allure of humanoid robots is that they are drop in replacements for agents in a world desgined for humans. If you want your robot to be a helper around the general populations houses for example, you would aim to make a general purpose bot capable of stairs, ladders, lying down, reaching high, stepping over things, holding awkward weights and loads while doing all of the above. Pinch, twist, push, pull, i…

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible. If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

I hear you, I think there's some obvious points you've already considered on price and serviceability. But maybe we do see that coming soon? Exoskeletons currently require some mobility from the legs from the user in the products available today, but as automatic bipedal motion gets more reliable maybe that changes.

I have seen how robots currently behave when they lose their footing though, and I'd be bloody terrified to be strapped into one.

Maybe wheelchair users and robot manufacturers can share a force for getting wheeled locomotion into more spaces, but I think homes will always be a challenge as stairs are a requirement for denser living, and elevators are expensive.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#65

Post by fhd2 »

throwawayqqq11 wrote: post #61
fhd2 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much like wheelchairs vs exo skeletons, the simpler (and cheaper) tech tends to win. I'd imagine in a future where robots are everywhere, they'll use whatever cheap locomotion is appropriate for their tasks, probably predominantly wheels. It's a fun vision to imagine bipedal robots everywhere like in old sci movies, but I'm not convinced that's how it'll play out, the economics don't make that much sense. Bipedal rob…

Cost will be the reason why these over engineered robots fail. Cost is the reason why indoor vertical farms fail, even though in their case, the environment is controlled and the tech is relatively simple compared to omnipotent field robots. The most viable use case of AI is bullshiting humans, which is still a multi-billion market. Infrastructure hooray!

I look at this a bit more generously: We're pushing the boundaries of what's technically possible. At least for niche use cases, I'm convinced bipedal robots and GenAI will have lasting value. Are they the next automobile / electricity / smartphone? I'm sceptical.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#66

Post by Mountain_Skies »

fhd2 wrote: post #37
xg15 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible. If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

Much like wheelchairs vs exo skeletons, the simpler (and cheaper) tech tends to win. I'd imagine in a future where robots are everywhere, they'll use whatever cheap locomotion is appropriate for their tasks, probably predominantly wheels. It's a fun vision to imagine bipedal robots everywhere like in old sci movies, but I'm not convinced that's how it'll play out, the economics don't make that much sense. Bipedal rob…

Reminds me of some of the early designs imagined for automatic dishwashers which had articulated arms and hands. The dishwashers we have are nothing like what was envisioned by those early designs. It just takes some time to break out of the pattern of thinking that the recent past imposed due to the technology of that time.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#67

Post by aetherson »

xg15 wrote: post #24
ehnto wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the allure of humanoid robots is that they are drop in replacements for agents in a world desgined for humans. If you want your robot to be a helper around the general populations houses for example, you would aim to make a general purpose bot capable of stairs, ladders, lying down, reaching high, stepping over things, holding awkward weights and loads while doing all of the above. Pinch, twist, push, pull, i…

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible. If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

There just aren't that many people in wheelchairs. There's not a lot of TAM in trying to build a better wheelchair that involves a huge capex.

So instead the government gets involved and demands a change to built environment instead of a speculative bet on the idea of a new technology.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#68

Post by pjc50 »

dijit wrote: post #10
LarsDu88 wrote: post #4

I had the same thoughts as much as 2 years ago on how this will play out. Unlike with railroads and fiber optic cable however, the core infrastructural asset of GPUs tends to become rapidly obsolete after about 5 years. Commoditization of this scale of compute is definitely going to be a boon for many fields of research. Unfortunately fundamental public research is exactly what is being cut right now in the US. Long…

The half-life of iron is pretty low too, the advantage of the rail system is what it allowed us to do when it was cheap enough. All the investment in AI should help bring infrastructure up to a higher level, power distribution and cooling for example are at a much higher level than would have otherwise been. Who knows what use that might have if it suddenly becomes incredibly cheap. (this is my silver lining thinking…

The half-life of metallic iron is apparently 2.6 million years, so I'm not sure what you mean there.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#69

Post by Fargren »

Freak_NL wrote: post #47
xg15 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible. If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

For disabled people who can use their arms and propel themselves, a wheelchair is low-maintenance, dependable, repairable, self-powered, and generic enough for there to be a healthy market and not too much vendor lock-in. Wheelchairs are not necessarily low-tech, but they are fully understandable. If the user of a wheelchair is unable to move themself for whatever reason, any able bodied person can step in and push.…

All of those are arguments for why robots should generally have wheels rather than legs, except for when legs are specifically needed.

Re: A bubble that knows it's a bubble

#70

Post by msgodel »

Freak_NL wrote: post #47
xg15 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Completely off-topic: I find it odd that we easily use this argument for humanoid robots (and also self-driving cars), but handicapped people are still bound to wheelchairs and have to constantly fight to change the environment and make it wheelchair-accessible. If we applied the same logic, there should be a massive effort to ditch wheelchairs and build exoskeletons instead.

For disabled people who can use their arms and propel themselves, a wheelchair is low-maintenance, dependable, repairable, self-powered, and generic enough for there to be a healthy market and not too much vendor lock-in. Wheelchairs are not necessarily low-tech, but they are fully understandable. If the user of a wheelchair is unable to move themself for whatever reason, any able bodied person can step in and push.…

I'd say the same thing about mobile robots, especially since ADA means most of the public environment should be relatively accessible.
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