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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

61–70 of 237 posts

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#61
post #46

> We start to see unrest and/or riots against "the rich" because there are no jobs, and people are being evicted I am surprised this has not already happened. The combination of rampant inequality and lax gun laws (in some states) is very explosive.

The rich have been very effective at convincing the poor to use those guns against each other (and scientists) instead of the people responsible for their poverty.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#62
post #46

> We start to see unrest and/or riots against "the rich" because there are no jobs, and people are being evicted I am surprised this has not already happened. The combination of rampant inequality and lax gun laws (in some states) is very explosive.

the gun laws are stricter in the States with more inequality

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#63
I share the concern based on the current productivity expectations but I did stumble across something recently which makes me feel a lot better. There was a change in the tax code that coincides with the beginning of the post-pandemic layoffs[1]. This was changed back last month by the BBB which likely means a bunch of new R&D spend for big tech. I think this is why we are seeing intense M&A activity and if we can keep the AI hype under control it will probably lead to new hiring as well.

[1]: https://qz.com/tech-layoffs-tax-code-trump-section-174-micro...

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#64
post #13

Whats the rebuttal to UBI just causing massive inflation again?

I've never been a fan of UBI (and I'm often downvoted for that, ha ha). I like the idea of mandating an 18 hour work week or similar though. It still keeps the incentive to work — still rewards those who want to achieve more. One wonders though what impact that will have on society — so much additional free time. More television binging? I hope not.

Why do folk "need" to work? To justify their existence? Don't we have a duty of care for fellow humans?

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#65
post #27
post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

I wouldn’t bet on this

Why not? Seems to match the trend of tech innovation creating more demand for tech.

The reality is lots of software problems can’t be solved with the level of “intelligence” LLMs have. And if they could, it wouldn’t be just software in danger - it’d be every human profession. Even the physical ones, since AI would quickly figure out how to build machinery to automate those.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#66

Referencing Marc Benioff making bold claims about AI isn't much evidence, he's pulling these numbers out of thin air. Despite claiming they won't hire software engineers in 2025, there are plenty of positions open at Salesforce for software engineers.

If it was just Marc Benioff preaching then it would indeed not deserve much attention. However, most big companies at this point have internal roadmap to reduce workforce by large amounts.

Is this really because if AI or is it because of economic hardships ?

I’m just one consumer but due to inflation my spending is down massively. Also because of all the doom predictions. I’m saving way more money.

I’m sure this is slowing things down and as I said, because of the piece of eggs , I’m can’t be the only one spending less.

If you look at reality. Companies at the top of the revenue pyramid just don’t pay enough tax, and it’s borked everything.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#67

Surprised he didn’t also mention US national debt and servicing it as interest rates rise.

Why would he? I’ve been hearing concerns about national debt my whole life (including the 80s when interest rates were a hell of a lot higher than now), and I’m retirement age. I’m not saying those chickens won’t eventually come home to roost, but probably not anytime soon. The U. S. has become quite skilled at giving that tin can a swift kick down the road.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#68
> And I think that then leads to calls for:

> - Redistribution of wealth

We can talk about excessively wealthy individuals all day, but I'm pretty sure that most knowledge workers are not going to be on the receiving side of wealth redistribution. This is even more likely to be true for the programmers affected by these tech layoffs.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#69
post #23

Don't worry -- soon after that, there will be high demand for human coders as companies scramble to hire to rewrite all the buggy and vuln-ridden AI-hallucinated software. We're on the verge of two revolutions in tech, not one.

I shared your view a year ago. Hell half my posts here on HN are arguing against the annoying hype. Today I make heavy use of AI and my code quality has gone up, not down. It's better tested, better factored, with better error handling covering more edge cases

AI code is only buggy if no-one is guiding or reviewing it

I'm not sure how long we'll need someone in the middle to actually review the code

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#70
> Homelessness skyrockets because people can't pay their rent, but now it's whole families on the streets

> We start to see unrest and/or riots against "the rich" because there are no jobs, and people are being evicted

> Crime goes up significantly

Arguably once a good percentage of people become unhoused, we are no longer living in a fair society. IT SHOULD break down into violence. But then so say "Crime goes up significantly". What crime? There is no society where a crime can be defined.

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