Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

windowscentral.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 141 posts

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#61

Post by jayd16 »

xg15 wrote: post #16
janitor77swe wrote: post #12

I don't understand such statement. Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform. And since this AI (whatever that means, nobody really knows) isn't a human-like AGI, it will most certainly not replace humans, but it will automate processes and speed things up. If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could au…

> Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics. > why would do that as opposed to keeping your headcount and instead offer 9 services to the public generating more streams of revenue? Because there might not be enough demand for those 9 services.

Total demand is a different department, no?

I think it's a very different question to ask "how would this create jobs" and "will this create jobs...in today's market."

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#62

Post by bluefirebrand »

stego-tech wrote: post #40
dev_l1x_be wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily replacement is not happening in real life scenarios. AI makes us faster, sure, replaces us? I don't see that happening any time soon. This is a pipe dream for Silicon Valley.

I mean, I agree with you 100%, but we should still consider the consequences if we’re wrong. That’s something I don’t see from most folks (the concept they might be wrong, and what that looks like if they are). That’s what I was mainly getting at: whether we’re right or wrong, the outcome is still bad because the problem lies with the current systems (motivations, incentives, etc) and not technology itself.

The fact is that it doesn't reaaally matter if AI can actually replace us as long as VCs and Investors are convinced it can

They can stay irrational longer than we can stay above water

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#63

Post by Havoc »

Of course it’ll create new jobs. Already has - see teams of people doing training runs and a whole bunch of AI SaaS and consulting services etc

The risk is more that the quantity is less than what is removed. And that the people losing jobs aren’t suitable to retrain. Retraining say truck drivers as data scientists is an uphill battle.

ie substantial risk of specific people getting left behind

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#64

Post by ivape »

Software industry needs a healthy shake out anyway. Too many people came in for the money. The current shake out involves either stunting people inside vibe coding such that they are functionally retarded, or straight up leave them long-term unemployed. Honestly, the only reason anyone would stick around is because this is all they know or like. I would not fuck around with this career if you ain’t about that life. But this goes for all, so all the project managers, and basically anyone that acted as middle-men between text editor and production, they all need to go. It’s going to be a nice trim job, better for everyone.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#66

Post by showerst »

darth_avocado wrote: post #43
guywithahat wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

> it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Still doesn’t explain how new jobs are created. Efficient economy doesn’t mean more jobs. You could displace a thousand workers and create a single new better job, but that means nothing.

I think programming is a good example profession.

For a simple model, let's say you hire programmers for three reasons:

1. Because you have (X) work to get done to run your business. Once that work is done, there is no more work to do.

2. Because they get work done that makes more money than you pay them, but with diminishing marginal returns. So the first programmer is worth 20x their salary, the 20th is worth 1.01x their salary.

3. Because you have some new idea to build, and have enough capital to gamble on it. If it succeeds before you run out of money, you'll revert to (1) or (2).

Let's assume AI comes along that means a programmer can do 4x the work. If most programmers are in the first bucket, then you only need 1/4 as many programmers and most will be fired.

If most programmers are in the second bucket, then suddenly there's _much_ more stuff that can be built (and money made) per-programmer. So businesses will be incentivized to hire many more programmers.

For programmers in the third bucket, our AI makes more likely to get built in time, thus ups the odds of success a little.

How you think the market is structured decides how you think AI will effect job creation and destruction.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#67

Post by bluefirebrand »

gkoos wrote: post #53

I see. And when everybody's fired, what will people be doing then?

History suggests that when this happens, people will be building guillotines

That's why I'm thinking about my new SAAS, revolution as a service! (Because this is HN I have to shill a product)

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#68

Post by gonzo41 »

dragontamer wrote: post #21
gonzo41 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seriously, carpenters and plumbers and maybe more electricians. All those copy writers, graphic designers and junior coders are going to have to do something else. I'm joking, but not. I think a lot of fat is going to get trimmed of the bone of most industries. That may include myself which is a worry.

That's not job creation. That's job destruction. With this much shoddy code out there, I'm expecting a LOT more testers are going to be needed. This is job creation but not the good kind. Think Tesla Optimus robot grabbing popcorn. Instead of one cashier filling bags of popcorn, you now have a dedicated teleoperator + sweeper to pickup all the popcorn that's spilled. One job turned into two jobs.

In the macro sense, jobs are jobs, we're just going to see labor move to different places. And AI will hit a limit for usefulness. We're still early in this adventure. guard rails are coming, but we're going to see some big crashes yet.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#69

Post by pjmlp »

BurningFrog wrote: post #49

As a Software Engineer, Gawdat has no expertise in job creation. If an Economist said the same, I'd pay more attention. It's very counterintuitive, but for 250 years tech has constantly eliminated jobs, while unemployment rates have stayed the same. People have always predicted this would lead to mass unemployment, they've always been wrong, and yet they've kept predicting it. One way to explain it is that unemployed…

Like in Detroit, and Germany's Ruhrgebiet?

Two examples out of plenty others, where people had to move out as means of survival.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#70

Post by iambateman »

It's important to note that the lens for a silicon valley ex-google exec is whether AI will create new jobs which remind him of Google.

There's almost no question that tech giants will have negative headcount over the next 15 years but the changes coming from AI haven't even really started to percolate into the broader economy.

Post reply on HN