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The Dollar Is Dead
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Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#62Nit: Is anyone else annoyed by the trend of people using block quote formatting to emphasize their own topic sentences rather than to quote from another source? In addition to being visually annoying, to me it highlights that the author habitually doesn't interact with whatever literature exists (i.e. if they sometimes needed to quote a paragraph from another author, they wouldn't use block quote formatting in this way), which signals that they're more likely to be missing something that's well known to people in the field.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Which means that people who cannot bury their wealth in (non-treasury!) assets will pay off the debt. I.e. people who need to work, which means it disproportionately affects the young. This is what has to happen in a democratic society with a flattened and eventual top heavy population pyramid that will not vote to reduce old people benefits.
Workers will see higher wages as there is more work and fewer people to do the work Everyone will see higher prices as the costs of work increase Interest rates will be low as there’s no other option
Indeed, demographics are destiny.
https://www.suerf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/f_fa99ccdbe...
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#64The idea that a basket of foreign currencies or "BRIC+" will replace the dollar is absolutely not going to happen. If the dollar goes down it takes the entire world with it. Nobody is insulated from the risk of a dedollarization.
I’m somewhat confident in the Euro until India or Africa grows to be a potential competitor. Whether they can achieve a similar risk profile remains to be seen of course. Russia is a non starter, and China is unlikely to make the political change necessary to be a reserve currency.
> I’m somewhat confident in the Euro
out of curiosity, why do you believe that?
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#65Don't forget, the US is the lowest-taxed Western country, so they have lots of room (and lots of inherent wealth) to tax. Whether they have the political will to do this, or the political will to reduce Defence Spending is an open question. But it's not inevitable. Hell, they can always do what other countries have done and abrogate debt or pay it down pennies or quarters to the dollar. Would work once. Or, the count…
Defense spending, moderate taxation, and a respect for private property is what makes the dollar a reserve currency to begin with. Taxing wealth agressively and cutting defense would immediately kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.
Absolutely
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#66One thing I desperately wish the markets would finally recognize is that the call is coming from inside the house: by letting private enterprise capture government, they are destroying the very currency that gives them power through unnecessary subsidies, preferential tax policies, socialization of losses and privatization of profits. Through corporate mass media manipulating voters and outright corruption in donatio…
Does anyone NOT know that? Devaluing the dollar is literally the key item on the current president’s financial agenda, as they’ve explained repeatedly
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#67The idea that a basket of foreign currencies or "BRIC+" will replace the dollar is absolutely not going to happen. If the dollar goes down it takes the entire world with it. Nobody is insulated from the risk of a dedollarization.
> idea that a basket of foreign currencies or "BRIC+" will replace the dollar is absolutely not going to happen
No it'll be renminbi, with the euro, if they are lucky as a distant second place.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#68Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#69The country is getting forced by markets into realizing pain for overspending, and only congress can manage this pain. Manage the pain, not remove it is key here. Manage it. Conrgess is totally inept and ridiculously politicized, so it's unlikely they will do anything except make the problem worse. That leaves only the natural fall out of refusing to acknowledge a financial injury before going out on the field to pla…
Agree. But debt to GDP will continue to rise, and that eventually leads to something very bad.
Re: The Dollar Is Dead
#70The idea that a basket of foreign currencies or "BRIC+" will replace the dollar is absolutely not going to happen. If the dollar goes down it takes the entire world with it. Nobody is insulated from the risk of a dedollarization.
Pretty much this. There is no “spare part” currency to swap in for the dollar and preserve the modern economy, here. The end of dollarization means the end of post-WW2 economic policy wholesale.
So what we’ll end up with is a post-WW2 supply chain but in a world where every currency dynamically floats, even the dollar. It’ll be a decade of price shocks, trade wars, and likely conflict as everyone vies to define the next era of economic power, until a smattering of core currencies (likely the Yuan, Euro, and Dollar) emerge on top for each respective region.
That’s my armchair theorycrafting, anyway.