I keep seeing this charge that AI companies have an “Uber problem” meaning the business is heavily subsidized by VC. Is there any analysis that has been done that explains how this breaks down (training vs inference and what current pricing is)? At least with Uber you had a cab fare as a benchmark. But what should, for example, ChatGPT actually cost me per month without the VC subsidy? How far off are we?
Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
61–70 of 243 posts
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#62Are we finally realizing that the term "AGI" is not only hijacked to become meaningless, but achieving it has always been nothing but a complete scam as I was saying before? [0] If you were in a "pioneering" AI lab that claims to be in the lead in achieving "AGI", why move to another lab that is behind other than offering $10M a year. Snap out of the "AGI" BS. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37438154
I don't know, companies investing in AI in the goal of AGI is now allowing me to effortlessly automate a whole suite of small tasks that weren't feasible before. (after all I pinged a bot on slack using my phone to add a field to an API, and then got a pull request in a couple of minutes that did exactly that)
Maybe it's a scam for the people investing in the company with the hopes of getting an infinite return on their investments, but it's been a net positive for humans as a whole.
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#63Im reading the "AI"-industry as a totally different bet- not so much, as a "AGI" is coming bet of many companies, but a "climate change collapse" is coming and we want to continue to be in business, even if our workers stay at home/flee or die, the infrastructure partially collapses and our central office burns to the ground-bet. In that regard, even the "AI" we have today, makes total sense as a insurance policy.
It's hard to square this with the massive energy footprint required to run any current "AI" models.
If the main concern actually we're anthropogenic climate change, participating in this hype cycle's would make one disproportionately guilty of worsening the problem.
And it's unlikely to work if the plan requires the continued function of power hungry data centers.
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#64No-one authentically believes LLMs with whatever go-faster stripes are a path to AGI do they?
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. For example, Microsoft was building data centers all over the world since "AGI" was "around the corner" according to them. Now they are cancelling those plans. For them "AGI" was cancelled. OpenAI claims to be closer and closer to "AGI" as more top scientists left or are getting poached by other labs that are behind. So why would you leave if the promise of achieving "AGI" was going to produce "$100B dollars…
Wait, aren't they cancelling leases on non-ai data centers that aren't under Microsoft's control, while spending much more money to build new AI focused data centers that that own? Do you have a source that says they're canceling their own data centers?
https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/hyperscale/article/552705... might fit the bill of what you are looking for.
Microsoft itself hasn't said they're doing this because of oversupply in infrastructure for it's AI offerings, but they very likely wouldn't say that publicly even if that's the reason.
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, there’s clauses in their relationship with OpenAI that sever the relationship when AGI is reached. So it’s actually not in Microsoft’s interests for OpenAI to get there
I haven't heard of this. Can you provide a reference? I'd love to see how they even define AGI crisply enough for a contract.
> I'd love to see how they even define AGI crisply enough for a contract.
Seems to be about this:
> As per the current terms, when OpenAI creates AGI - defined as a "highly autonomous system that outperforms humans at most economically valuable work" - Microsoft's access to such a technology would be void.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-seeks-unlock-inves...
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
Wait, aren't they cancelling leases on non-ai data centers that aren't under Microsoft's control, while spending much more money to build new AI focused data centers that that own? Do you have a source that says they're canceling their own data centers?
https://www.datacenterfrontier.com/hyperscale/article/552705... might fit the bill of what you are looking for. Microsoft itself hasn't said they're doing this because of oversupply in infrastructure for it's AI offerings, but they very likely wouldn't say that publicly even if that's the reason.
Thank you!
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#68Observe what the AI companies are doing, not what they are saying. If they would expect to achieve AGI soon, their behaviour would be completely different. Why bother developing chatbots or doing sales, when you will be operating AGI in a few short years? Surely, all resources should go towards that goal, as it is supposed to usher the humanity into a new prosperous age (somehow).
I don't think it's as simple as that. Chatbots can be used to harvest data, and sales are still important before and after you achieve AGI.
It could also be the case that they think that AGI could arrive at any moment but it's very uncertain when and only so many people can work on it simultaneously. So they spread out investments to also cover low uncertainty areas.
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#69Also, AGI is not just around the corner. We need artificial comprehension for that, and we don't even have a theory how comprehension works. Comprehension is the fusing of separate elements into new functional wholes, dynamically abstracting observations, evaluating them for plausibility, and reconstituting the whole - and all instantaneously, for security purposes, of every sense constantly. We have no technology th…
We only have two computational tools to work with - deterministic and random behavior. So whatever comprehension/understanding/original thought/consciousness is, it's some algorithmic combination of deterministic and random inputs/outputs.
I know that sounds broad or obvious, but people seem to easily and unknowingly wander into "Human intelligence is magically transcendent".
Re: Problems the AI industry is not addressing adequately
#70Very funny to re-title this to something less critical.