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Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

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Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#61

Post by alyandon »

TSiege wrote: post #23
reedf1 wrote: post #9

I think it is possible that the widespread introduction of ChatGPT will cause a brief hiatus on hiring due to the inelasticity of demand. For the sake of argument , imagine that ChatGPT makes your average developer 4x more productive. It will take a while before the expectation becomes that 4x more work is delivered. That 4x more work is scheduled in sprints. That 4x more features are developed. That 4x more projects…

I am not asking this as a gotcha, but a genuine curiosity for you or other people who find AI is helping them in terms of multiples. What is your workflow like? Where do you lean on AI vs not? Is it agentic stuff is tab by cursor? I find AI helpful but no where near a multiplier in my day to day development experience. Converting a csv to json or vis-versa great, but AI writing code for me has been less helpful. Beyo…

I lean a bit on LLMs now for initial research/prototype work and it is quite a productivity boost vs random searches on the web. I generally do not commit the code they generate because they tend to miss subtle corner cases unless the prompts I give them are extremely detailed which is not super useful to me. If an LLM does produce something of sufficient quality to get committed I clearly mark it as (at least partially) LLM generated and fully reviewed by myself before I mash the commit button and put my name on it.

Basically, I treat LLMs like a fairly competent unpaid intern and extend about the same level of trust to the output they produce.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#62

Post by eru »

MajimasEyepatch wrote: post #22
ai-christianson wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We just shipped a major feature on our SaaS product. We, of course, used AI extensively. The thing is, this feature leaned on every bit of experience and wisdom we had as a team --things like making sure the model is right, making sure the system makes sense overall and all the pieces fit together properly. I don't know that "4x" is how it works --in this case, the AI let us really tap into the experience and skill w…

But presumably you could have built it before, just slower, which is the point. For now, that speed-up just looks like a win because it’s novel, but eventually the speed-up will be baked into people’s expectations.

> For now, that speed-up just looks like a win because it’s novel, but eventually the speed-up will be baked into people’s expectations.

It will still be a win: the rewards for the new productivity have to go somewhere in the economy.

Just like other productivity improvements in the past, it will likely be shared amongst various stakeholders depending on a variety of factors. The workers will get the lion's share.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#63

Post by xivzgrev »

bachmeier wrote: post #34

Okay. It also coincides with the end of the post-pandemic hiring boom and the UK bank rate going from 0.1% to 5.25%. It's kind of funny that reliable data analysis has never been part of the AI hype when you consider that AI is used for data analysis.

Yes, but overall job ads are up. Pay is going up.

But specifically entry level is down significantly since Nov 2022.

All of your points - interest rates, post pandemic hiring boom would apply to market as a whole.

Not saying it’s causation like the article claims, but there’s at least some correlation trend.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#64

Post by eru »

landl0rd wrote: post #50
vevoe wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes sense to me. There's another post on the front page right now talking about shortening the work week (I haven't read it yet tbf, so I could be wrong about it's content) because of AI. People have been talking about shorter work weeks for a long time now, it just doesn't happen. What does happen is we get more done and the GDP goes even higher.

“Shortening the workweek” sounds pretty bad… some people will suggest literally anything before higher wages.

Real wages are going up all the time.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#65

Post by eru »

vevoe wrote: post #24
reedf1 wrote: post #9

I think it is possible that the widespread introduction of ChatGPT will cause a brief hiatus on hiring due to the inelasticity of demand. For the sake of argument , imagine that ChatGPT makes your average developer 4x more productive. It will take a while before the expectation becomes that 4x more work is delivered. That 4x more work is scheduled in sprints. That 4x more features are developed. That 4x more projects…

That makes sense to me. There's another post on the front page right now talking about shortening the work week (I haven't read it yet tbf, so I could be wrong about it's content) because of AI. People have been talking about shorter work weeks for a long time now, it just doesn't happen. What does happen is we get more done and the GDP goes even higher.

You can already take a job with a shorter work week or move a region or country where shorter work weeks are common.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#66

Post by knowitnone »

ttul wrote: post #31

I run a mature software company that is being driven for profit (we are out of the fantastic future phase and solidly in the “make money” phase). Even with all the pressure to cut costs and increase automation, the most valuable use of LLMs is to make the software developers work more effectively, producing the feature improvements that customers want so that we can ensure customers will renew and upgrade. And to the…

there is plenty of automation to be done. Last company I was with claimed to be a "tech company" which they kind of are but their internal tech stack was junk and automation was just as bad (at least in the unit I was with). AI certainly won't do anything about that unless a person told it exactly what and how to automate.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#67

Post by trollbridge »

rel2thr wrote: post #19

I was talking to the head of accounting for a small biz the other day, and they were talking about buying an AI accounts payable solution. And how typically they would hire a person for this but now they use the AI. Now this solution might not even use an LLM , it existed pre-chatgpt , but I think the word of mouth of chatgpt and AI is causing business people to seek out automations where they would normally hire.

This really makes no sense - computer based automated accounts payable has been around since the 1960s, and is an extremely competitive market. AI and LLM don’t exactly bring some huge breakthrough here.

Most the purpose of hiring someone is handling edge cases, checking for fraud, etc - one client of mine made a single AP mistake (accepting a change to where to send payments) that cost them the equivalent of an AP clerk’s salary for a year.

They now have a part time AP clerk and part of her duties is calling any vendor who sends them a change of payment instructions. They’re fraudulent about half the time.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#68

Post by eru »

gedy wrote: post #33

It's an innovative-sounding excuse for weak economic performance and the unfavorable tax rules for engineers.

Which tax rules are you talking about?

(The article is about the UK job market. What tax rules have recently changed for engineers there?)

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#69

Post by ulrikrasmussen »

khelavastr wrote: post #3

ChatGPT is not to blame for logistics, construction, medical, and other kinds of entry level jobs being down by a third..

Right, in a very short time we just went from money being virtually free to interest rates soaring, coupled with fears of trade war and general market uncertainty. I can't really fathom how people can attribute this to just LLMs without looking around to consider the state of the rest of the world.

I remember back in 2017 when I was looking at yet another blockchain company which had raised huge sums of money to develop the next dubious blockchain of no value while throwing piles of money at large teams of PhDs, thinking that the world is in need of a recession to stop this lunacy. It happened.

Re: Entry-level jobs down by a third since launch of ChatGPT

#70

Post by holiday_road »

arethuza wrote: post #39
rel2thr wrote: post #19

I was talking to the head of accounting for a small biz the other day, and they were talking about buying an AI accounts payable solution. And how typically they would hire a person for this but now they use the AI. Now this solution might not even use an LLM , it existed pre-chatgpt , but I think the word of mouth of chatgpt and AI is causing business people to seek out automations where they would normally hire.

I wonder what happens when their new accounts payable AI starts paying everyone on time and when the contract says they should be paid?

Haha, it might bankrupt the company but at least I’ll be able to understand the emails I get from AP now.
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