The question not even asked by the article is ... why?
From what I've read, mostly sentencing reform and less aggressive drug prosecution/more drug diversion. That and the general trend for crime to recede in wealthy, stable societies.
America’s incarceration rate is in decline
61–70 of 586 posts
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
I doubt there is a single explanation. I think it's multiple factors. Unleaded gasoline could also be a factor. Every country has shown drops in crime rates when leaded gasoline was phased out. If I recall, leaded gasoline was phased out in the 80ies, which fits a drop in crime rates in the 90ies.
Availability of pornography has cut down the rate of rapes significantly. Too bad the republicans are going to try to ban all porn pretty soon, according to their stated agenda. They do love their wealthy donors that run the prison-industrial-complex.
A lot of the current drop has decriminalization of drugs as a contributing factor. Same principle.
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#63In the light of that dynamic I fund it curious that Russian prisons population is rapidly declining too, but for very different reason.
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#64Earlier quoted context omitted.
120 per 100,000 includes significant digits. 0.12% could be anywhere from 120-124 per 100,000. You'd really want 0.120%, but that's confusing for different reasons. Worse would be 1,000 per 100,000, which is 1% but there's no way to tell that it's not rounded or truncated.
"120" and "0.12%" both have 2 significant digits. "120." and "0.120%" have 3 significant digits.
I would presume, perhaps incorrectly, that “120 per 100,000” has 3 significant digits and “12 per 10,000” has 2.
I’ve never seen a period used like that in census data. It seems like a conscious choice because the period is confusing when used in the middle of a phrase. 12E1 makes more sense but is abnormal notation for many people.
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's unclear if the decline in prisoners stems from a decline in crime. While I generally believe the statistics that violent crime has decreased, it may be the case that the judicial system and even the government in general just have no enthusiasm for prosecuting or punishing it. In short, no, they won't stop locking it up. They wouldn't even if there was a decline in petty crime... those locks are so that they can…
> those locks are so that they can staff the store with 2 people instead of 5. Maybe in some cases that's true, but it's definitely not true for the few big box stores I frequent in SF where this practice occurs. The Target on 4th street has significantly more staff running around constantly unlocking things and tending to this sort of b.s. than they would otherwise. I'm not sure who pays for the tactical gear wearin…
> The Target on 4th street has significantly more staff running around constantly unlocking things and tending to this sort of b.s. than they would otherwise.
Are you certain, or were they running 3 people ragged who will burn out in a month and quit? Constant motion can make it seem like there are more people, but I also remember the 1990s and seeing at least one person per department in a Kmart, some just monitoring their area. A bigbox store like Target would've had 2 people for the cash registers up front, at least one in customer service, and one per department during off-peak hours. If you're telling me you're seeing a dozen people for certain, I'll believe you, but I am wondering if it wasn't actually fewer.
And besides all that, I was thinking more along the lines of CVS and Walgreens, which are the stores I know of locking everything behind glass.
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#66The question not even asked by the article is ... why?
The answer is likely unknowable, but I can think of several factors that tie into the plummeting birth rate: - While the Freakanomics citation of widespread access to abortion has been debunked as a sole cause, I think it remains credible for at least a contributing factor. Fewer young people born to folks who are too poor/busy/not wanting to raise them is doubtlessly going to reduce the number of young offenders who…
>how awful the dating market is especially for women
"World Ends, Women Most Affected."
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#67Earlier quoted context omitted.
"120" and "0.12%" both have 2 significant digits. "120." and "0.120%" have 3 significant digits.
I would presume, perhaps incorrectly, that “120 per 100,000” has 3 significant digits and “12 per 10,000” has 2. I’ve never seen a period used like that in census data. It seems like a conscious choice because the period is confusing when used in the middle of a phrase. 12E1 makes more sense but is abnormal notation for many people.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Significant_figures
> Trailing zeros in an integer may or may not be significant, depending on the measurement or reporting resolution.
120 is either two or three significant figures, and you can't know which without knowing how the number was arrived at.
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's unclear if the decline in prisoners stems from a decline in crime. While I generally believe the statistics that violent crime has decreased, it may be the case that the judicial system and even the government in general just have no enthusiasm for prosecuting or punishing it. In short, no, they won't stop locking it up. They wouldn't even if there was a decline in petty crime... those locks are so that they can…
I live in a deep Red Bible thumping, back the blue, law and order county / state. About 7 years ago a former schoolmate of mine shot a man 6 times over a bad drug deal, fled the state to California. He was captured by the US Marshal and brought back to the county jail where he bonded out after 3 month. After his bonding out, he drove over to the victim’s parent’s house and performed a drive-by shooting, injuring none…
There should be statutory limitations for prosecutors concerning the use of plea deals. No more than 1% of cases in any calendar year should be permitted to even offer plea deals, so that they use that tool sparingly and only when appropriate. If they waste it out of laziness or apathy, then the subsequent cases that year would have to be brought to trial.
This would cut down on alot of the bullshit (and not just for cases like the one you describe, but where plea bargaining is used to bully people into pleading guilty where they are not).
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#69Does that mean we can stop keeping mouth wash and deodorant behind lock and key on store shelves and resume locking up the criminals making messes of our cities?
It's unclear if the decline in prisoners stems from a decline in crime. While I generally believe the statistics that violent crime has decreased, it may be the case that the judicial system and even the government in general just have no enthusiasm for prosecuting or punishing it. In short, no, they won't stop locking it up. They wouldn't even if there was a decline in petty crime... those locks are so that they can…
Asset Protection manager here. Our protection decisions are based on theft trends independent from our staffing. And generally, the theft scales with how much business a store receives, rather than how many staff they employ.
More staff won't solve theft significantly because thieves carry the target merchandise to a less securely monitored area of the store. If they see an employee in an aisle, they'll move down another aisle where there isn't. And you can't have a person everywhere.
If anything, putting something behind glass increases staff because we have to keep that area covered as much as possible so we get those sales.
Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline
#70There are many reasons why crime is in decline, but ultimately its economic. Crime used to pay. Your expected return on a crime was pretty good for the risk involved. Nowadays though, because of technology, risk has increased while the returns have also decreased. Barriers to entry for crimes worth committing are now way higher. Robbing a gas station decades ago could yield a nice chunk of cash that could probably pa…
not forgetting that CCTV is absolutely ubiquitous and high def, where previously it was reasonably rare and low quality
And most young people would rather have social media that lets them easily be tracked than staying anonymous for the purposes of committing crimes.