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Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

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Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#61

It’s only a feeling, but I’d swear I’ve seen variations on this post across a half a dozen software-adjacent subreddits every day for the last month. The common denominator has always been “Paying $200 for Claude Max is a steal” with absolutely no evidence of what the author did with it. I honestly think we’re being played.

> I honestly think we’re being played. Supposing this is true, who is playing us and why?

Sam Altman and the money.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#62

Good luck trying to debug the code you've generated without knowing anything about what it does.

Is this really any different from debugging code that has been built by hundreds of people over 10s of years and you're just the latest schmuck working on it?

Maintaining legacy code built by a huge team over decades is sort of famously difficult and the productivity expectations on those teams is incredibly low. A project getting into a similar state after only months would be disastrously bad.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#63

I’m not a developer, just an IT dinosaur, but one comment in the thread stuck with me: > it has felt like a movement of “code first, think and ask questions later” took over the narrative during the past decade That , I believe, is the real “hard reset” nobody is really talking about. Because the outcome is the same regardless of how AI goes: * If AI is real, this progress continues, and magically half of my technica…

I've been waiting for architecture skills to 'explode in value' for my entire 15+ years career. Basically the reverse happened thus far; architecture has been neglected and even the number of roles like 'Software Architect' and 'Solution Architect' have been on the decline.

I hope AI will force this shift to occur. Once the juniors stop thinking that they know everything, stop seeing themselves as coders and start seeing themselves as 'vibe coders'; they may be more inclined to rely on senior devs to evaluate 'their' code and to fill in the gaps.

Part of the issue before was that juniors who could churn out code at a rapid rate, didn't want to take advice from dinosaurs. I understand this very well because I was on the other side of the fence as a highly sought-after junior dev back in the day. I myself didn't see the value of senior devs back then.

Part of the issue is that it takes a long time/effort even to be a junior dev and so by the time junior devs can write any apps at all and they've read a couple of 'Software design patterns' books (sigh...), they think they're geniuses and don't need to take advice from anyone.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#64
post #18

Yeah maybe. Talk is cheap, show me the code. > Last week, I did something I’ve put off for 10 years. Built a full production-grade desktop app in 1 week. Fully reviewed. Clean code. Launched builds on Launchpad. UI/UX and performance? Better than most market leaders. ONE. WEEK. I really wonder why people who write these things never actually show these apps they vibe coded in a week that are “better than most market…

> My UML professor said very similar things 25 years ago.

Yeah, it feels like a lot of these stories are the new version of the methodology / database / framework hype we've seen for so many years... with our new tool, you can write Reddit / Yelp / Wikipedia / S3 / etc. in a week. Sure, you can write a prototype that kind of replicates the surface level functionality. How about the actual hard part? Things like scaling, optimization of computing resources across large fleets, evolution of the system to attract more customers, fighting spam, increasingly complicated integrations with 3rd parties, maintenance, etc.

So much of this will turn out like all those things we've seen before. It will take skilled engineers doing a lot of thinking to figure out the right way to leverage the tools to make better systems for less.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#65
I see it from many sides.

1. A non-web dev creating a personal website for spouse because well, I am the IT/tech guy. 2. At work with side/ productivity projects where manager asked something to be done but not how it is to be done. 3. At work with enterprise project as main role.

So on 1) AI/LLM are amazing. As easy Hugo maybe I can't create a small website on weekend without even using readymade themes. For 2) again it is great I was able to lot of interesting code/scripts for personal automation with Go, Java, duckdb etc. For 3) they are okay mainly because those large IT applications have far too many hard dependencies on legacy backends and services. Generating some fancy wrapper in Node, React or whatever is not going to do much (for me). They do help with bits on API discoveries and usage examples.

Maybe it is my experience bias but all the Java code it throws at me uses old Java 8 APIs even though my projects are setup to use at least Java 21. So I have to constantly nudge it towards using better APIs, whereas for 1) and 2) I'll take what I get.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#66

I’m not a developer, just an IT dinosaur, but one comment in the thread stuck with me: > it has felt like a movement of “code first, think and ask questions later” took over the narrative during the past decade That , I believe, is the real “hard reset” nobody is really talking about. Because the outcome is the same regardless of how AI goes: * If AI is real, this progress continues, and magically half of my technica…

I've been waiting for architecture skills to 'explode in value' for my entire 15+ years career. Basically the reverse happened thus far; architecture has been neglected and even the number of roles like 'Software Architect' and 'Solution Architect' have been on the decline. I hope AI will force this shift to occur. Once the juniors stop thinking that they know everything, stop seeing themselves as coders and start se…

> Basically the reverse happened thus far; architecture has been neglected...

I see the same. My conclusion is a lot of people who'd be doing these marketing, analysts and many other low paying jobs where one needs to appear slick have now joined computer/IT due to hig pay in considerable numbers and to the point they hold positions of technical director etc.

At least in my experience I find this push for micro services, async, reactive, cloud, kubernetes, kafka which are part of "we are going state of the art" narrative is just to appear slick.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. Where's the code?

Where's the 10x, 20x, or whatever increases in profit from all the AI "productivity"? Typing is not the challenging aspect of writing code. Writing boilerplate faster isn't the super power that a lot of non-technical people seem to think it is.

Are we returning to ideas having importance now since PoC are cheaper and easier? Any dev on HN can create a Facebook competitor, but getting the traffic shift will require some magical thinking.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#68
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been waiting for architecture skills to 'explode in value' for my entire 15+ years career. Basically the reverse happened thus far; architecture has been neglected and even the number of roles like 'Software Architect' and 'Solution Architect' have been on the decline. I hope AI will force this shift to occur. Once the juniors stop thinking that they know everything, stop seeing themselves as coders and start se…

> Basically the reverse happened thus far; architecture has been neglected... I see the same. My conclusion is a lot of people who'd be doing these marketing, analysts and many other low paying jobs where one needs to appear slick have now joined computer/IT due to hig pay in considerable numbers and to the point they hold positions of technical director etc. At least in my experience I find this push for micro servi…

> At least in my experience I find this push for micro services, async, reactive, cloud, kubernetes, kafka which are part of "we are going state of the art" narrative is just to appear slick.

I can second this. If your stuff runs fine on a VM and provides more in value than it costs to support, then there’s no reason to move unless those technologies provide demonstrable/tangible value above and beyond their costs.

As for both of your comments, I’m also admittedly taking a swing for the fences here based on my read of the environment. A lot of metaphorical checks were written with the intent AI will pay them in full (or whatever the next fad is), but at some point the proverbial bill always comes due.

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#69
post #2

The first comment to the post referenced Kent Beck's: > "The value of 90% of my skills just dropped to $0. The leverage for the remaining 10% went up 1000x. I need to recalibrate" [0] At the time that felt like an exaggeration, but from my own use of Claude Code over the last month, I now entirely agree. My take on this is that we need to educate future devs from the very start as engineering managers - to be concern…

What have you accomplished with Claude Code? Anything you can share?

Re: Dev jobs are about to get a hard reset and nobody's ready

#70
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where's the 10x, 20x, or whatever increases in profit from all the AI "productivity"? Typing is not the challenging aspect of writing code. Writing boilerplate faster isn't the super power that a lot of non-technical people seem to think it is.

Are we returning to ideas having importance now since PoC are cheaper and easier? Any dev on HN can create a Facebook competitor, but getting the traffic shift will require some magical thinking.

A PoC has never really been a problem that needed solving. It's going from that to a product that's actually fit for purpose. AWS will happily drain your bank account because you're throwing tons of resources at a poor implementation. Hackers will also happily exploit trivial security vulnerabilities a vibe coder had no ability to identify let alone fix.

This is not the first time the industry has been down this road. They're not in themselves bad tools but their hype engenders a lot of overconfidence in non-technical users.

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