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Now might be the best time to learn software development

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Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#61

Post by bitpush »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #60
bitpush wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…

> World will have lots more of apps, and programmers. This is actually bad for existing programmers though? Do you not see how this devalues your skills?

In the current state, yes. But that is also an opportunity, isn't it?

When online flight bookings came about, travel agents were displaced. The solution isn't "let's stop online flight bookings sites and protect travel agents" because that's an inefficient system

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#62

Post by platevoltage »

psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

Fast forward a couple decades and "Ok here it is. We call it Dreamweaver"

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#63

Post by hollowturtle »

> LLMs really are like combine harvesters; allowing one to do the work of many.

Heck I'm so tired of statements like this, many who? It's already a lot an LLM that automate/help the boring/tedious part of my job, I have yet to see taking over 2, 5 or 10 of my collegues, just knowing what a hawful lot these tiredlessly dudes do I couldn't ever imagine doing also their job. imo such statements have very short shelf life

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#64

Post by platevoltage »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #60
bitpush wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…

> World will have lots more of apps, and programmers. This is actually bad for existing programmers though? Do you not see how this devalues your skills?

I see your point, but I'm having personally having a different experience.

A client of mine has gotten quite good at using Bolt and Lovable. He has since put me on 3 more projects that he dreamed up and vibe coded that would just be a figment of his imagination pre-AI.

He knows what's involved in software development, and knows that he can't take it all the way with these tools.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#66

Post by DavidPiper »

munificent wrote: post #42
bitpush wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bravo. This is the exact sentiment I have, but you expressed in a way that I could never have. Most people miss the fact that technical improvements increases the pie in a way that was not possible before. When digital cameras became popular, everybody become a photographer. That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. Same with YouTube & creativity. And same with coding & LLMs. World…

> That only made the world better, and we got soo many more good photographers. I disagree with the "only" part here. Imagine a distribution curve of photos with shitty photos on the left and masterpieces on the right and the height at the curve is how many photos there are to be seen at that quality. The digital camera transition massively increased the height of the curve at all points. And thanks to things like be…

Thank you for describing this so eloquently.

Meaning no disrespect to photographers, I'm starting to think that a probable outcome of all the AI investment is a sharp uptick in shovelware.

If we can get AIs to build "pretty good" things - or even just "pretty average" things - cheaply, then our app stores, news feeds, ad feeds, company directives, etc, will be continuously swamped with it.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#67

Post by kayodelycaon »

glimshe wrote: post #16
psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

You're joking but it's true. I'm sure you know that. SQL had similar claims... Declarative, say what you need and the computer will do for you. Also written in English.

SQL and many DSLs (JIRA…) are actually used by plenty of non-technical users. Anyone who wants to build their own reports and do basic data analysis has sufficient incentive to learn it.

They are very much the exception that proves the rule though.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#68

Post by rossdavidh »

All of this is good reason that orgs _shouldn't_ be laying off developers, but none of it is a reason that they won't/aren't. In any case, I see more "if they're remote why can't they be on the low-wage side of the planet" at the moment, than I do "use AI instead of a developer", although they are no doubt related.

The more awkward truth is that most of what developers have been paid to do in the 21st century was, from the larger perspective, wasted. We mostly spent a lot of developer time in harvesting attention, not in actually making anything truly useful.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#69

Post by MichaelZuo »

rossdavidh wrote: post #68

All of this is good reason that orgs _shouldn't_ be laying off developers, but none of it is a reason that they won't/aren't. In any case, I see more "if they're remote why can't they be on the low-wage side of the planet" at the moment, than I do "use AI instead of a developer", although they are no doubt related. The more awkward truth is that most of what developers have been paid to do in the 21st century was, fr…

How does that follow…?

Most organizations do derive net benefit from laying off the below average and hiring the above average for a given compensation range, as long as the turnover is not too high.

And this delta increases when the above average can augment themselves more effectively, so it seems we should expect an even more intense sorting.

Re: Now might be the best time to learn software development

#70

Post by fuzztester »

psunavy03 wrote: post #14

"Great news, boss! We invented this new tool that allows nontechnical people to write code in English! Now anyone can deploy applications, and we don't have to hire all those expensive developers!" "Wow, show it to me!" "OK here it is. We call it COBOL."

that was from 35 to 40 years ago.

today:

s/COBOL/SQL

and the statement is still true, except that many devs nowadays are JS-only, and are too scared or lazy as shit to learn another, relatively simple language like SQL. ("it's too much work". wtf do you think a job is. it's another name for work.)

because, you know, "we have to ship yesterday" (which funnily enough, is always true, like "tomorrow never comes").

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