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My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

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Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#61
post #3

Machine translation and speech recognition. The state of the art for these is a multi-modal language model. I'm hearing impaired veering on deaf, and I use this technology all day every day. I wanted to watch an old TV series from the 1980s. There are no subtitles available. So I fed the show into a language model (Whisper) and now I have passable subtitles that allow me to watch the show. Am I the only one who remem…

I feel you. In the late 00's/early 10's, downloading and getting American movies were fairly easy but getting the subtitles was a challenge. It was even worse with movies from other regions. Even now I know people that record conversations to be replayed using Whisper so they can get 100% the info from it.

Disclaimer: I'm not praising piracy but outside of US borders is a free for all.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#62
post #26

There's a huge caveat i don't see often, which is that it depends on your language for programming. IE. AI is reallllly good at writing Next.js/Typescript apps, but not so much Ruby on Rails. YMMV

I agree with this. People who are writing Python, Javascript, or Typescript tell me that they get great results. I've had good results using LLMs to flesh out complex SQL queries, but when I write Elixir code, what I get out of the LLM often doesn't even compile even when given function and type specs in the prompt. As the writer says, maybe I should be using an agent, but I'd rather understand the limits of the lower-level tools before adding other layers that I may not have access to.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#63
post #7

I feel like we get one of these articles that addresses valid AI criticisms with poor arguments every week and at this point I’m ready to write a boilerplate response because I already know what they’re going to say. Interns don’t cost 20 bucks a month but training users in the specifics of your org is important. Knowing what is important or pointless comes with understanding the skill set.

I feel the opposite, and pretty much every metric we have shows basically linear improvement of these models over time.

The criticisms I hear are almost always gotchas, and when confronted with the benchmarks they either don’t actually know how they are built or don’t want to contribute to them. They just want to complain or seem like a contrarian from what I can tell.

Are LLMs perfect? Absolutely not. Do we have metrics to tell us how good they are? Yes

I’ve found very few critics that actually understand ML on a deep level. For instance Gary Marcus didn’t know what a test train split was. Unfortunately, rage bait like this makes money

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#64
> LLMs can write a large fraction of all the tedious code you’ll ever need to write.

But, you still have to read it:

> Reading other people’s code is part of the job...I have to read the code line-by-line anyways.

So instead of writing the tedious code, I only have to read it. Oh but don't worry, I don't have to read it too carefully because:

> Agents lint. They compile and run tests. If their LLM invents a new function signature, the agent sees the error

But remember...

> You’ve always been responsible for what you merge to main.

So now I have to oversee this web of agents and AI ontop of coding? Am I doing more now for the same pay? Am I just speedrunning myself toward lower pay? Is AI adoption a prisoner's dilemma toward lowing my wages hardest?

Because is good at coding compared to many other disciplines (e.g. math), it makes the internal AI politics among programmers more of an issue. Add fuel to that fire baby!

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#65
> "For art, music, and writing? I got nothing. I’m inclined to believe the skeptics in those fields."

You've already lost me, because I view programming as an art form. I would no more use AI to generate code than I would use it to paint my canvas.

I think the rest of the article is informative. It made me want to try some things. But it's written from the perspective of a CEO thinking all his developers are just salt miners; miners go into the cave and code comes out.

I think that's actually what my hangup is. It's the old adage of programmers simply "copying and pasting from stack overflow" but taken to the extreme. It's the reduction of my art into mindless labor.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#66
post #2

THANK YOU. I was a 3-4x programmer before. Now I’m a 9-15x programmer when wrangling LLMs. This is a sea change and it’s already into “incredible” territory and shows no signs of slowing down. > Think of anything you wanted to build but didn’t. You tried to home in on some first steps. If you’d been in the limerent phase of a new programming language, you’d have started writing. But you weren’t, so you put it off, fo…

I'm not sure about giving specific metrics or kpis of efficiency or performance

It definitely feels different to develop using LLMs, especially things from scratch. At this point, you can't just have the LLM do everything. Sooner or later you need to start intervening more often, and as the complexity of the project grows, so does the attention you need to give to guiding the LLM. At that point the main gains are mostly in typing and quickly looking some things up, which are still really nice gains

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#67
This is also where I am, and I guess it has been a source of mild and growing consternation since I first blagged an OpenAI GPT account when they were private, in an attempt to get ahead of what was coming -- both the positive and negative sides of the advances. Most people either ignored the advances, or quickly identified and connected to the negative side, and effectively filtered out the rest.

As somebody who comes from a politically left family, and was also around in the early days of the Web, let me tentatively note that this issue has a particular political slant, too. The left has strong roots in being able to effectively critique new developments, economic and social, that don't come from its own engines of innovation which have revolved around those critiques, plus solidarity, organization, and sociopolitical action.

The movement's theorists work far more slowly on how to integrate the effect of those changes into its vision. That means when something like this comes along, the left's cultural norms err on the side of critique. Which is fine, but it makes any other expression both hard to convey, and instantly suspect in those communities. I saw this in the early Web, where from a small group of early adopters of all political slants, it was the independents, heterodox leftists, and the right, -- and most vocally, the libertarians -- who were able to most quickly adapt to and adopt the new technology. Academic leftists, and those who were inspired by them took a lot longer to accomodate the Net into their theses (beyond disregarding or rejecting it) and even longer to devise practical uses for it.

It wasn't that long, I should say -- a matter of months or years, and any latent objections were quickly swamped by younger voices who were familiar with the power of the Net; but from my point of view it seriously set back that movement in practicality and popularity during the 80s and 90s.

I see the same with AI: the left has attracted a large generational of support across the world from providing an emotionally resonant and practical alternative to the status quo many people face. But you quickly lose the mandate of heaven if you fail to do more than just simplistically critique or reject a thing that the average person in the world feels they know better, or feels differently toward, than you do. This is something to consider, even if you still strongly believe yourselves to be correct in the critiques.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#68
The privacy aspect and other security risks tho? So far all the praise I hear on productivity are from people using cloud-hosted models.

Claude, Gemini, Copilot and and ChatGPT are non-starters for privacy-minded folks.

So far, local experiements with agents have left me underwhelmed. Tried everything on ollama that can run on my dedicated Ryzen 8700G with 96GB DDR5. I'm ready to blow ~10-15k USD on a better rig if I see value in it but if I extrapolate current results I believe it'll be another CPU generation before I can expect positive productivity output from properly securely running local models when factoring in the setup and meta.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#69
Yes! It's amazing how even in a field that tends to lean more early adopter than average you still get a lot of the default knee-jerk dismissal and cynicism - even when it's something clearly amazing and useful as thinking machines.

We're in the middle of a major shift - there will benefits to those that adapt first. People outside the field have no idea what's coming, even those of us in the field are underestimating the shift.

There were a few outliers in the 60s who understood what the computing revolution meant and would mean, but most did not. This is likely an even bigger change than that.

Re: My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

#70
post #37

>but it’s bad at rust I have to say, my ability to learn Rust was massively accelerated via LLMs. I highly recommend them for learning a new skill. I feel I'm roughly at the point (largely sans LLMs) now where I can be nearly as productive in Rust as Python. +1 to RustRover as well, which I strongly prefer to any other IDE.

Me too -- actually, I'd say that the LLMs I use these days (Sonnet 4 and GPT4.1, o4, etc) are pretty good at rust.
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